Public preferences for nuclear power and expansion of on-site nuclear-related activities: pre & post Fukushima Michael R. Greenberg for CRESP January 2012

Objectives 1. What fuel sources do residents favor? Why? (Biof, coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, solar, hydro, wind) 2. Do people who live near existing nuclear facilities favor new nuclear sites in their area? Why? (CLAMP policy? new sites elsewhere in the USA? energy parks?) 3. What has been the impact of the Fukushima events on these preferences? 2

Design and Implementation Random digit dialing landline with 8-11 call back design in 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010 and site-specific samples focusing on Hanford, Idaho, Los Alamos, Oak Ridge, SRS, WIPP. (within 50 miles of site boundary) Also some nuclear power site areas in CA, PA-NJ-NY, TX USA samples for comparison 11 published papers from surveys and 4 more in press. Now working on a book to be submitted in August Nuclear waste management, nuclear power and energy choices: public preferences, perceptions, & trust, Springer. 3

Increase reliance on energy source for electricity, % Type (Sites-USA)SS USSS USSS US Coal Dams/hydro67 73na na70 74 Natural gas NUCLEAR Solar & wind90 91na na

Fukushima event impact, 2011, % Response Site-specific US Remain firm supporter 2718 Supportive but concerned 4542 Open-minded to against 1519 Remain opposed1322 5

Nuclear power & global climate change, % - LocationSite-specific US Year Support nuclear power Oppose nuclear power GCC made me more open to nuclear

Prefer new nuclear-energy activities at DOE sites, % Option Favor in own state48 33 Favor in another state10 9 Favor, no location preference Neutral17 28 Against5 10 7

Preferred options for storing used fuel, 2011, % OptionsSite-specificUS In casks to 3-4 DOE waste sites4252 In casks to 3-4 new storage sites 2020 Yucca repository2718 New repository

Preferred transport modes, 2011, % ChoiceSite-specificUS Truck on interstates2814 Railroad 5357 Barge over waterway2129 9

Change in Trust Strongly agree with statement Indicator, % agree site-specific Year (Strongly Agree, Agree) SA AGSA AG DOE prevent off-site contamination DOE communicates honestly with public DOE manage new on-site activities Contractors prevent off-site contamination Contractors communicate honestly w public Contractors manage new on-site activities

Critical result: growing importance of trust Prior to Fukushima, strong associations of preferences and perception with affect, ethnicity-race, gender, affluence, familiarity, and trust Event did not change these, but raised the significance of trust relative to the others. 11

Find five subpopulations, Archetypes 1. trusting affluent educated Caucasian males 2. less trusting educated, relatively young Caucasian females 3. economically disadvantaged 4. young and less interested 5. stealth 12

Affluent Educated Caucasian Males- 5-30% 45+ years and older Pro nuclear power, pro-energy parks, pro-adding new waste management missions Strongly opposed to relying more on oil and coal Most knowledgeable about energy-related issues Rely more than their counterparts on books, magazines, web searches Focused on their individual needs and maintaining the economy Trust DOE,NRC, and other stewards. Disproportionally have themselves or have had a close friend or relative that has worked at a site – halo. 13

Educated, relatively young Caucasian females – 10-40% Antinuclear power, against fossil fuels, pro solar wind & other renewables Less trusting DOE, NRC, and other authorities Oppose new nuclear facility siting Focused on environmental long-term issues, much less concerned with economic implications Rely on a wide variety of sources including mass media. Less informed about certain energy facts than group 1. 14

Economically disadvantaged- 2-10% Relatively poor Disproportionately African-American and Latino Older (brought up in era when fossil fuel energy drove the economy and brought economic growth in the country) Concerned about price of energy, favor coal & oil Less convinced about renewables than other groups Not knowledgeable Do not trust authorities responsible for managing energy and waste management facilities 15

Young and Less Interested – 25% to 60% Don’t know much Don’t care to know much What they do know is mostly from the mass media and much of it is confused 16

Stealth - <1% Can’t be found in surveys Politically connected major players Control local media said on boards and other powerful decision-making bodies 17