IMBER-JAPAN related programs “Population outbreak of marine life” and “Global Warming project” “Global Warming project” N. Yoshie, H. Saito, K. Komatsu, S. Ito (FRA) Contents 1. Introduction of IMBER related programs (1sheet) 2. "Population outbreak of marine life“ (18sheets) Jelly fish prediction & Physical- ecological model 3. “Global Warming project” (4sheets) Future prediction of pelagic fish 4. Suggestions for GODAE-IMBER collaboration (1sheet) 01/25

Introduction of IMBER-JAPAN related programs 1. “Population outbreak of marine life” elucidate the mechanism of extreme increase of marine life population (like sardine, jellyfish) , 14 million EURO year “Global Warming project” elucidate the effect of global warming to the marine resources and predict the future status of them , 7 million EURO year -1 02/25

“Population outbreak of marine life” project Theme 1 Fish species alternation caused by climate change. Theme 2 Jellyfish outbreak induced by anthropogenic environmental change. Sometimes marine life populations show abrupt increase or decrease. There are several hypothesis to explain such kind of change e.g. bottom up, top down and wasp-waist control. However, the mechanism is still unclear. Moreover, dominant forcing is natural in some cases, while that is anthropogenic in the other cases. This project focus on population outbreaks and elucidate the mechanism of them. There are two main themes. One is “Fish species alternation caused by climate change” and another is “Jellyfish outbreak induced by anthropogenic environmental change”. 03/25

Issue of giant jellyfish Recently, Japan have faced to big issue of giant jellyfish Nemopilema nomurai. The giant jellyfish are advected from the coastal regions of the Yellow Sea and the northern East China Sea to the Japan Sea during summer and autumn. They stray into the set fishing net in the coast and damage coastal fisheries seriously. Giant jellyfish is a big issue in Japan and several programs have been already started. We introduce one example of giant jellyfish prediction conducted under Japan Fisheries Agency international program. 04/25 Nemopilema nomurai 2m weight:150kg

source Prediction of giant jellyfish migration courtesy of K. Komatsu Prediction in the Japan Sea “JADE” (based on RIAMOM), 1/12 deg X 1/12 deg, Kalman filter for SSH FRA + Kyushu Univ. Prediction in the Northwestern Pacific, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea “FRA-JCOPE”, 1/12 deg X 1/12 deg IAU for SSH, SST, hydrographic data FRA + JAMSTEC 05/25

initial condition is based on the observations Year to year variation (prediction) 15 Jun.15 Jul.30 Jul. courtesy of K. Komatsu Interannual variations of migration route were simulated. 06/25

There is a rapid connecting window in the yellow sea (region 5). Example of prediction This is only a simple example of jellyfish prediction. Under the project, the relationship between anthropogenic environmental change and increase of jellyfish will be investigated. courtesy of K. Komatsu 5 Jul. 15 Jul. 25 Jul. (from 05 July to 25 July) 07/25

sardine anchovy mackerels Issue of species alternation of pelagic fish Large scale fluctuations in the populations of sardines and anchovies have been observed during the past century. Their amplitude is high and contributes a disproportionate share of the total variability of the world harvest of fish. There are several intensive fishery grounds for sardine and anchovy and sardine and anchovy show asynchrony in all areas. e.g.) Benguela, California, Humboldt, Kuroshio- Oyashio 08/25

○California △ Chilean ●Kuroshio (Kawasaki's FAO) Sardine landing Moreover, sardine shows synchrony in the whole Pacific (Humboldt, California, and Kuroshio areas) during 20 th century. 09/25 The same trend in the whole Pacific

On the other hand, sardine does not show any synchrony between Pacific and Atlantic. The asynchrony between sardine and anchovy reflects not only the differences of their life histories, but also bottom-up process driven by climate shifts. The synchrony of sardine population in the whole Pacific also suggests a bottom-up, climate driven component. Negative PDO ( ) = “Anchovy Dominant Regime” Positive PDO ( ) = “Sardine Dominant Regime” High PP in West, Low PP in CC Faster Kuroshio and Slower CC Chavez (2003) Conduct physical-biological interdisciplinary observation Climate index and the species alternation 10/25

Focus area: Kuroshio-Oyashio interfrontal zone courtesy of A. Yatsu SST in the south of Kuroshio Extension shows high correlation with mortality of juvenile sardine. We will investigate how does the SST in the south of KE relate to sardine mortality. Scenario 1 SST decrease spin down of KE enhancement eddy northward transport. Scenario 2 Cold SST deep mixed layer enhancement primary production. SST anomaly Mortality anomaly 11/25 Noto & Yasuda (1999)

Streamer Warm Core Ring Recirculaton Kuroshio Oyashio DO-Chl.a- ARGO Ship observation Intensive observation in the K-O region DO-Chl.a- Glider 12/25

Modeling approach NEMURO An ecosystem model “ NEMURO ( N orth pacific E cosystem M odel U sed for R egional O ceanography ) ” was developed by CCCC/MODEL task team of PICES (North Pacific Marine Science Organization). More than 40 papers were already published. 1. Time-series station (e.g., Fujii et al., 2002, 2007; Smith et al., 2005; Yoshie et al., 2003, 2007) 2. Mesoscale Iron fertilization experiment (e.g., Fujii et al., 2005; Yoshie et al., 2005) 3. Global 3-D model for interannual variation (e.g., Aita et al., 2003, 2007) 4. Regional 3-D model for the global warming (e.g., Hashioka and Yamanaka, 2007) 3Nut 2Phyt 3Zoo 4Det Yamanaka et al., /25

Extended NEMURO ( eNEMURO ) Extended NEMURO ( eNEMURO ) Introducing subtropical plankton and new temp. dep. Yoshie et al in prep. 14/25

Examples of NEMURO and eNEMURO Both NEMURO and eNEMURO well reproduced the seasonal changes observed in the subarctic region. Basically, the same performance 15/25

Megrey et al. (2007) Ito et al. (2004) NEMURO For Including Saury and Herring NEMURO.FISH Please see detail on “NEMURO and NEMURO.FISH” special issue on Ecol. Modelling, 202(1-2), edited by M. J. Kishi, B. A. Megrey, S. Ito, F. E. Werner 16/25

Example of NEMURO.FISH NEMURO.FISH successfully reproduced realistic growth of Pacific saury. NEMURO.FISH successfully estimated realistic consumption rate of Pacific saury. (Ito et al., 2004) Model Obs. Wet weight of Pacific saury Terms of the bioenergetics equation consumption respiration egestion excretion dynamic action Obs. consumption egg production 17/25

Application of NEMURO.FISH to Sardine & Anchovy NEMURO.SAN Supported by FRA, APN, PICES, GLOBEC, IAI Hold a workshop at Tokyo in Nov to compare 4 current pelagic ecosystems; California, Benguela, Humboldt, Kuroshio-Oyashio. Agreed to develop NEMURO.SAN. 18/25

NEMURO.SAN Biological extensions: –Two species (sardine and anchovy) –Individual-based –Full life-cycle –Dynamic predator on sardine and anchovy Spatial extensions: –Grid of cells Anchovy Sardine Predator NEMURO Rose et al. (in prep.) 19/25

Year Anchovy Sardine Predator Example of NEMURO.SAN Rose et al. (in prep.) 20/25

monitoring in-situ data A-line ， O-line ， CK-line satellite data NEMURO eNEMURO NEMURO.FISH Future prediction retrospective analysis global model high-resolution model validation “Global Warming project” “Global Warming project” nesting validation 21/25

Ito et al. (2007) Future prediction of Pacific saury Current 2050 Wet weight of Pacific saury Egg production of Pacific saury Current 2050 Predicted wet weight of saury decreases about 10 g than current. However, the egg production is predicted to increase. 22/25

current 2050 Kuroshio inter- frontal zone Oyashio Future prediction of Pacific saury (cont.) Ito et al. (2007) These changes are caused by change in the migration route. Saury does not migrate to the Kuroshio region in the first winter. Since the prey density in the interfrontal region is much higher than those in the Kuroshio region, saury is able to product much eggs. 23/25

Future perspective NEMURO.SAN coupled with 3D-NEMURO Future prediction Fish species alternation NEMURO.SAN + 3D-NEMURO + data assimilation Shido et al. (submitted) Population of Pacific Saury Weight and adv.+ mig. Example of 3D-NEMURO.FISH Feb.Oct. Feb.Oct. 24/25

Kuroshio-Oyashio interfrontal zone is one of the key areas for GODAE-IMBER collaboration The K-O region is one of the most attractive fields to elucidate relationship between ocean condition and marine ecosystem. Japan conducts several big observational programs in this region. DO-Chl.a-ARGO & Glider will be deployed under those programs. Physical-biological (including fish) coupled model have been applied in this region. Suggestions to GODAE-IMBER collaboration 25/25

Details of models

Governing equations of diatom in NEMURO

Physiological parameters in eNEMURO In eNEMURO, phytoplankton is categorized four groups by temperature and nutrient dependencies of physiological parameters: subarctic, subtropical and global types.

Box model version of NEMURO and eNEMURO were applied to 3 stations, OY (subarctic), B1 (subtropical) and CK11 (cont. shelf) under boundary conditions based on observation. Applications to three regions around Japan St. CK11 10/15

Seasonal changes in the subtropical region Performance of eNEMURO looks more reasonable than that of NEMURO, especially in the reproduction of zooplankton. Diatom is too high PS & PM are dominant ZS+Bac & ZM are dominant ZL is overestimated

Simulated seasonal changes at CK11 (cont.shelf) Performance of eNEMURO looks more reasonable than that of NEMURO. Overestimations of phytoplankton and zooplankton are reduced. Total-phyt Is overestimated ZL+ZP Is overestimated

Bioenergetics Model for herring and saury change of weight E: excretion C: consumption R: respiration (loses through metabolism) S: specific dynamic action (digesting food) F: egestion P: egg production

Mortality Fishing: age specific Egg to age1: implicit in spawner – recruit relationship Natural: constant + predator dependent Assumptions in NEMURO.SAN Predator Do not grow or die Move based on neighboring cell with highest prey biomass (anchovy + sardine) Daily mortality rate of anchovy and sardine individuals in a cell is proportional to predator biomass in that cell Reproduction For simplicity, use spawner-recruit relationship sardine: Jan.1-Sep.7, anchovy: Jan.1-May.30 Individuals mature at age-2 sardine ： 35.7g, anchovy: 10.5g