Ecosystem Considerations for the Arctic, Eastern Bering Sea, Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska as developed for the North Pacific Fishery Management.

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Presentation transcript:

Ecosystem Considerations for the Arctic, Eastern Bering Sea, Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska as developed for the North Pacific Fishery Management Council Stephani Zador Alaska Fisheries Science Center NOAA Ed Melvin Bill FlerxJay Orrberingclimate.noaa.gov

The Ecosystem Considerations Report: its format who it targets how it is received how it is applied Outline

Alaska marine ecosystems

Alaska fishery management units

Report History Produced annually since 1995 Evolved since then 1995: a compendium of general information on EBS, AI and GOA ecosystems and a general discussion of ecosystem-based management. 2014: Report Cards, Hot Topics, assessments, indicators, etc. Adaptive document Revised annually in response to review and new information available New indicators every year

Major Sections (2014 report, 263 p) Report Cards (7 p) EBS, AI GOA in development Ecosystem Assessment (38 p) EBS, AI Preliminary Arctic, GOA Ecosystem Status and Management Indicators (168 p) 50 (6 new) Report Outline Increasing level of detail

The annual Council process Stock assessments Ecosystem considerations 100+ Ecosystem Indicators 100+ Ecosystem Indicators Regional Plan Teams Science and Statistical Committee Advisory Panel Fishery quotas set Aug-Sept Sept, Nov Dec Public input Public input Ecosystem information added at each level

Indicator Categories Ecosystem Status Physical Zooplankton Forage fish Herring Salmon Groundfish Benthic Communities and Non-Targets Seabirds Marine Mammals Ecosystem or Community Indicators Ecosystem-Based Management Discards and Non-Target Fish Habitats Sustainability Humans

Report Card Example

2014 EBS Report Card 1.North Pacific Index 2.Eastern Bering Sea ice retreat * 3.Euphausiid density * 4.Motile epifauna aggregate biomass 5.Benthic foragers aggregate biomass 6.Pelagic foragers aggregate biomass 7.Fish apex predators aggregate biomass 8.Multivariate seabird breeding index * 9.St. Paul Island fur seal pup production 10.Maximum potential trawl area disturbed All time series updated * New or recalculation

Indicator Selection: Developing Report Cards Goal: to create short Ecosystem summaries “Team-based Synthesis Approach” Created Ecosystem Assessment Synthesis teams: regional scientific experts, fisheries managers, others Met 1-2 times Chose structuring themes to guide indicator selection Developed list of 8-10 indicators: “vital signs” updatable

Aleutian Islands Eastern Bering Sea

Ecosystem comparison Eastern Bering SeaAleutian Islands HabitatBroad, flat, muddy shelf. Valuable fisheries -> Lots of fish-related research. Extensive rocky island chain, deep trenches, oceanic basins. Smaller-scale fisheries (and research) Team members: NOAA Academia Management Commercial Other Fed Non Profit Research sponsor (3) Structuring themeProductionVariability Indicator focusBroad, community-level, indicators of ecosystem-wide productivity, and those most informative for managers Characterize global attributes with local behavior

Indicators Climate Zooplankton Forage fish Fish biomass Marine Mammals Seabirds Humans North Pacific Index Ice Retreat Index Euphausiids/Copepods Motile epifauna biomass Benthic foragers biomass Pelagic foragers biomass Fish apex predator biomass St Paul fur seal pups St George thick-billed murre reproductive success Area trawled North Pacific Index Auklet reproductive success Tufted puffin chick diets Pelagic foragers biomass Fish apex predator biomass Sea otters Steller sea lion non-pups Area trawled K-12 enrollment EASTERN BERING SEA ALEUTIAN ISLANDS “Top” Indicators for Ecosystem Assessments

1.Indicator selection influenced by: Physical and biological nature of ecosystem Extent of regional scientific knowledge Expertise and interests of Team members 2.Assessment development should be iterative process with frequent review by managers Revisit list every ~5 yrs Indicator Selection: Conclusions

Ecosystem Assessments Descriptive Based on top indicators + others Example from the EBS Past Present Future

Example Hot Topics Hot Topics are new, noteworthy, or of interest to fishery managers

Indicator “Contributions” Contribution format 1-2 p text, 1-2 figures/tables 1.Description of indicator 2.Status and Trends 3.Factors Influencing Trends 4.Implications for Fisheries Management

Indicator “Contributors” There are many Mostly voluntary

From Council minutes, December 2006: “The [eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock] stock remains above the MSY level, having declined … at a rate of about 19% per year…. Other issues raised … suggest a need for further caution. – a northward shift … with some portion of the population into Russian waters. – a large decline in zooplankton, which is important in providing forage for juvenile pollock. – increasing predation by arrowtooth flounder on juvenile pollock. Consequently, … a reduction in … catch … is justified.” Result from stock assessment Assessment + ecosystem indicators Ecosystem indicators A multispecies model How ecosystem knowledge is used in setting fishery quota – an example

Other Sections Executive summary Physical, Ecosystem, Fishing sections Most recent data, page-linked Response to SSC Comments (~5p)

Future Directions Increasingly ecosystem-specific Focus on predictive capacity Move indicators directly into stock assessments Develop thresholds There will always be a role for qualitative synthesis for those events/observations that are outside the bounds of current modeling systems.

Seabirds Forage fish Zooplankton Climate Halibut Future Directions: Synthesis and the unexpected GOA SST anomalies