OVERVIEW PROJECTIONS ( ) AND FORECAST ( OVERVIEW PROJECTIONS ( ) AND FORECAST ( ) OF INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT, LABOR FORCE SUPPLY AND OCCUPATIONAL DEMAND STATEWIDE AND BY REGIONAL LABOR MARKET AREA Prepared For the March 1, 2007 OCCUPATIONAL FORECASTING CONFERENCE LOCAL REVIEW MEETING

DATA SOURCES EMPLOYMENT DATA EMPLOYMENT DATA  Louisiana Department of Labor (ES-202 DATA (ES-202 DATA)  Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics Survey—Benchmark 2005 (2005 and 2006) Current Employment Statistics Survey—Benchmark 2005 (2005 and 2006) Geography: State and Metropolitan Statistical Area Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (up to second quarter of 2006) Geography: parish and planning area LABOR FORCE AND POPULATION DATA LABOR FORCE AND POPULATION DATA  U.S. Census Bureau  IRS Statistical Unit  Systems Solutions Consulting  Bureau of Labor Statistics

PROJECTIONS AND FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT National Assumptions National Assumptions  Latest Bureau of Labor Statistics long term assumptions about labor productivity, GDP growth, PCE growth and industry growth by four-digit NAICS State Assumptions State Assumptions  Short-term and long term trends in three and four-digit NAICS industries between 1990 and  Quarterly Census of Employment and Current Employment Statistics Survey for 2005 and 2006 for incremental changes in employment by two and three digit NAICS.  Year 2007 forecast heavily influenced by monthly changes and 2009 are forecasts influenced by assumptions about short-term events  Years 2008 and 2009 forecast reflects assumptions about recovery, national growth and historical Louisiana industry growth  Years industry employment projections equations reflect projected national growth rates and historical growth rates for selected industry.

PROJECTIONS AND FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS Regional Labor Market Area Assumptions Regional Labor Market Area Assumptions  Years growth rates by industry  Monthly trends from Current Employment Statistics (CES) for period 1997 to 2006 to identify seasonal monthly employment trends—used to forecast Year 2007 only.  Quarterly Census of Employment and Wage data for 2005 and up to second quarter 2006 updated with CES data  For MSA’s Census data for trends in establishment births and deaths. For example in , in the Alexandria MSA there were 309 establishment births and 266 establishment deaths. The establishment births added 1,796 jobs, but establishment deaths resulted in a loss of 2,006 jobs.  Regional industry short-term forecasts and long-term projections follow same process as statewide employment forecasts and projections

PROJECTIONS AND FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS Population and Labor Force Population and Labor Force  Statewide Population Pre-Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, Louisiana population growth continued to hemorrhage Between 2000 and 2004, domestic out-migration exceeded in-migration by 75,000 individuals Post-Hurricane Katrina and Rita, Louisiana’s July 1, 2006 population was estimated by the Census Bureau to be 182,000 lower than the 2000 Census. Every Regional Labor Market in the State, except Baton Rouge, experienced a net out- migration between 2000 and ASSUMPTIONS: ASSUMPTIONS: Louisiana’s total population is not likely to recover to the 2000 Census level until Even though population growth is slow to recover, overall labor force participation rates will rise faster than the United States. In 2006, Louisiana’s labor force participation rate was 55.7%. The United States rate was estimated at 65%. The labor force assumption is an optimistic assumption because the percentage change in participation rates in Louisiana correlated above 90% with the percentage change in participation rates in the United States for the 1980, 1990 and 2000 Censuses.

PROJECTIONS AND FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS Population and Labor Force Population and Labor Force  Regional Labor Market Areas For all RLMA’s, except the New Orleans region, population and labor force projections follow pre-Hurricane Katrina and Rita trends within each region. These trends cover the period 1990 to Historical statewide data for population and labor force and lagged by one-year labor force population are used independent variable to predict labor force population. Pre-Hurricane statewide labor force population projections and the previous years projected labor force for planning area are used to predict future year labor force population. Labor market participation rates are a function of the state’s historical and projected participation rates.

Louisiana Overview

OCCUPATIONAL PROJECTIONS Foundation For Occupational Projections Foundation For Occupational Projections  LDOL survey’s Louisiana firms on the occupational composition of their workforce and wages for those occupations. The survey is called “Occupational Employment Statistics” Survey.  Occupational projections contain both industry employment projections and self- employed.  A random sample of 7,500 employers in the state, representing firms of all sizes, is the universe for occupational data. Process of Projecting Occupations Process of Projecting Occupations  Three data elements are included to determine total demand for an occupation Total employment in the identified industries Self-employment Replacement or turn-over rates

OCCUPATIONAL PROJECTIONS Process of Projecting Occupations Process of Projecting Occupations  Example, if employment increases and for occupation- example --welder Mining Services Mining Services (Initial conditions) 2006 employment = employment = 110 Total change in new growth = 10 Occupational Information Welders = 10% of total workforce Replacement rate of welders is 5% annually Estimating Occupational Demand 10 (growth) X (base year employment) X 0.05 = total demand (10 X 0.10 = X 0.05 = 5) = total demand (6) for welder occupation in 2007 What Have You Learned? The majority of total demand in most industries comes from replacement demand, not growth.

ISSUES Potential vs. Estimated Employment For Some Future Year. Potential vs. Estimated Employment For Some Future Year.  This is an issue that is more or less an accounting problem, and has to deal with establishment births and deaths. Recall this problem: For MSA’s Census data for trends in establishment births and deaths. For example in and in the Alexandria MSA, there were 309 establishment births and 266 establishment deaths. The establishment births added 1,796 jobs, but establishment deaths resulted in a loss of 2,006 jobs Labor Force and Jobs Labor Force and Jobs  Available labor force does overtime serve as a constraint in the potential vs. estimated realized employment. Replacement Rates Replacement Rates  “The replacement of …… is low.” It is important to recognize that replacement rates are annualized. Therefore, it is possible that all of the individuals retiring could occur (in reality) in a compressed period of time. As an example, the replacement rate for “Chemical Plant and Systems Operators” is 3% per year over the time frame. This might seem low on first glance. However, if the projection period is for ten years, this implies that 30% of the entire Chemical Plant and Systems Operators will be retired or replaced within that time frame.

ISSUES Annual Demand For New Jobs  “ The annual demand for carpenters is low. We have a project that studies show will require 1,000 new construction jobs.” There are several response to this comment. First, the same issue of annualized demand applies to growth in occupational demand Second, annualized demand, by the virtue that it is annualized, removes peaks and valleys in employment data. Labor is a constraint. As noted earlier, almost every region of the state has had negative migration rate. Saying you “need” is very different from what you might get.