The South Carolina and Santee-Lynches Economies: Recession, Recovery, Then What? Dr. Don Schunk Research Economist Center for Economic & Community Development.

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Presentation transcript:

The South Carolina and Santee-Lynches Economies: Recession, Recovery, Then What? Dr. Don Schunk Research Economist Center for Economic & Community Development Coastal Carolina University April 15, 2010

The Big Picture: Key Trends That Will Shape the Next 5-10 Years Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

US Savings and Debt Trends: Implications for Spending Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University Real Income Growth: 3.9% Real Spending Growth: 3.8% Real Income Growth: 3.1% Real Spending Growth: 3.4% ????

U.S. Homeownership Rate Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

Debt Outstanding Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

South Carolina Labor Market Trends Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

SC Total Employment Jan – Jan Feb 2008: 1,950,700 jobs Jan 2010: 1,813,000 jobs Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University -138,000 jobs -7.1%

SC Total Employment Jan – Jan June 2000: 1,876,600 jobs Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University Jan 2010: 1,813,000 jobs Jan 2002: 1,795,400 jobs Feb 2008: 1,950,700 jobs

SC Employment Trends Since 1960 Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

SC Employment Trends Since ,000 jobs Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

SC Employment Trends Since ,000 jobs Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

SC Employment Trends Since ,000 jobs Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

Understanding the “Lost” Decade: Trends in Manufacturing Employment Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

S.C. Manufacturing Employment 1970Q1 – 2001Q4 Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

S.C. Manufacturing Employment 1970Q1 – 2009Q4 Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University What happens as we lose 130,000 manufacturing jobs?

Manufacturing and Total Employment in South Carolina 1970Q1 – 2009Q4 Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

Tracking The Recovery Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

Tracking the South Carolina Employment Recovery Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

Tracking the South Carolina Employment Recovery Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

Santee-Lynches Economic Forecast Presented by: Santee-Lynches Regional COG & The BB&T Center for Economic and Community Development at Coastal Carolina University

Gross Retail Sales ($ billions)

Total Employment (thousands)

Labor Force (thousands)

Unemployment Rate (percent)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2000-’09 data

-9,240 manufacturing job losses from rdQ ‘09 for region. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages

-795 non-manufacturing job losses from rdQ ’09 for region. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages

-10,035 total job losses from rdQ ‘09 for region.

“If real estate is location, location, location, then economic development in the new economy is education, education, education.” Dr. JOHN S. BUTLER Professor, University of Texas

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Single-Family Building Permits (# of permits)

Single-Family Permits Value ($millions)

Manufactured/Mobile Home Permits (# of permits)

Nonresidential Building Permits (# of permits)

Nonresidential Permit Value ($millions)

GDP Growth Rate (percent)

CPI Inflation Rate (percent)

Prime Rate (percent)

30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate (percent)

3-Month Treasury Rate (percent)

10-Year Treasury Rate (percent)

South Carolina Total Employment (millions)

South Carolina Unemployment Rate (percent)

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