1 INTRODUCTION TO DAMAGE AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY AND BASIC CONCEPTS Ricardo Zapata Marti UN ECLAC

2 PURPOSES OF DISASTER VALUATION –Serve as a means to mobilize external cooperation, assistance and loans –Become a tool in policy formulation and post- disaster resource allocation –Become a tool in long-term risk mitigation strategy setting –Determine needs for reconstruction and mitigation –Create historical record

3 INFORMATION NEEDS OF DISASTER VALUATION Type: –Contribution of analysts in all sectors of the economy, as well as social scientists –Geographically specific information –Final analysis must have both disaggregated and national accounting versions Sources: –Ex ante data (pre-existing conditions, baselines) –Ex-post data (on the basis of numerous sources and estimates from the affected population to economic, social and environmental effects. Can be both primary and second- hand.)

4 DISASTERS: FRAMEWORK FOR VALUATION

5 VULNERABILITY Vulnerability: Exposure to risks given the existing institutional and socioeconomic situation, manifested in: Marginalization, Informal housing and economy, Poverty, Conditions in human settlements and the situation of productive activities (primary, industrial, tertiary or services); their linkage internally and with the environment.

6 PHASES IN A DISASTER The disaster cycle:  EMERGENCY  REHABILITATION  RECONSTRUCTION  PREVENTION AND MITIGATION  ALERT AND PREPARATION

7 THE DISASTER CYCLE AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT Emergency In the immediate aftermath, priority is to save lives Assessment efforts can begin: affected population, deaths, wounded, missing, direct damages to property and infrastructure, both public and private. Rehabilitation Priority is to return activities in the affected area to normal. Assessment of direct and indirect damages can begin, and an appraisal should be initiated of secondary effects. Reconstruction Priority is to implement mitigation so that pre- disaster vulnerability is not rebuilt. Ex: construction projects modify pre- existing infrastructure and environmental conditions that led to damage by the disaster.

8 CONNECTING THE CYCLE: THE LINK BETWEEN NEEDS ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION Mitigation measures rely on specific information provided by the needs assessment Mitigation includes: –Allocating resources toward institutional, organizational and structural measures –Training and organization, including at the community level –Devising early warning systems Ownership of actions is fundamental to build trust

9 TIMELINESS AND ACCURACY OF VALUATION “Window of need” = “Window of opportunity” Timely response to needs –Valuation must aim to reduce disaster impact and avoid reconstruction of preexisting vulnerability –Assessment must be done in time to mobilize necessary internal and / or external resources to help Accuracy –Valuation must aim to ensure comparability and methodological consistency, and –To be acceptable by technical standards –Judgment calls, assumptions and indirect calculations are necessary –The acceptable margin of error is 10-12% –Valuation must nonetheless be accurate enough to attract investment and projects

10 DISASTER VALUATION CONCEPTS Direct damages Impact on assets –Infrastructure –Capital –Stocks Occur immediately during or after the phenomenon that caused the disaster Indirect Damages Effects on flows –Production –Reduced income and increased expenses Are perceived after the phenomenon, for a time-period that can last from weeks to months, till recuperation occurs

11 SECTOR by SECTOR VALUATION METHODOLOGY Social Sectors –Housing –Health –Education, culture, sports Infrastructure –Transport and communications –Energy –Water and sewerage Productive sectors –Goods: agriculture, industry –Services: commerce, tourism, etc. Global impact –On the environment –Gender perspective –Employment and social conditions –Macroeconomic assessment

12 SOCIAL SECTOR Each social group’s degree of vulnerability to a natural disaster is different, and the severity of negative impact of natural disasters is as directly related to social inequalities and deprivations as to the natural hazard itself. A Social Impact Assessment (SIA) can be crucial in determining: -what mitigation is necessary -what mitigation alternatives exist -which mitigation strategies are most likely to work Accurate assessments of impacts should pay attention to gendered differentials and must be based on sound pre-existing socio-demographic data

13 DYNAMIC GLOBAL EFFECTS Macroeconomic effects : Repercussions on the national or regional economy after disaster The duration of repercussions depending on the characteristics and magnitude of disaster The effects are reflected by : –Gross Domestic Product growth –Performance of the external sector –Evolution of public finance –Increases of prices and inflation

14 DISASTER RISK REDUCTION Internal policies: - Include vulnerability reduction as an objective of development plans alongside goals of: Competitive growth Equitable development Sustainable and sustained development Social participation External policies: -Introduce risk management as part of the regional/international agenda, alongside: External competitive insertion Benefiting from the globalization process Inclusive regional insertion

15 DISASTER RISK REDUCTION Sectoral components: Monitoring, analysis and climate forecasting, including at the local level Contingency plans in key sectors, for example: Agriculture, cattle raising, Rural poverty, Energy and baselines Water and health Interconnected systems Regulation of basic services with sponsorship of private enterprise Focused plans for vulnerable groups, including for employment, food availability and nutrition Education to reduce vulnerability