Anthropogenic Biomes, Land-Use Systems Agriculture in a Global Context Anthropogenic Biomes, Land-Use Systems Global Climate Change and Erle Ellis Department of Geography & Environmental Systems University of Maryland, Baltimore County German-US Conference Tough Choices - Land Use under a Changing Climate Berlin, Germany October 2, 2008

Trends in Agriculture & Global Climate Change Overview Trends in Agriculture & Global Climate Change Agricultural Change and Global Climate Change Anthropogenic Biomes & Land Use Systems What is Agriculture? Rangelands, Croplands & Villages Measuring & modeling global changes in multi-functional agricultural mosaics

Cropland and Pasture 2000 Cropland Pasture 15 million km2 Ramankutty, N., A. T. Evan, C. Monfreda, and J. A. Foley. 2008. Farming the planet: 1. Geographic distribution of global agricultural lands in the year 2000. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 22:GB1003. Cropland and Pasture 2000 Cropland 15 million km2 12% of ice free land Pasture 28 million km2 22% of ice free land

- + Changes in Cropland Area: 1960 - 1990 Ramankutty, N., J. A. Foley, and N. J. Olejniczak. 2002. People on the land: Changes in global population and croplands during the 20th century. AMBIO 31:251-257. Land clearing: tropics (plantations, crops) Land abandoned: Americas, China, Eastern Europe Return to production (recent grain prices): USA

Agriculture Intensifies: 1960 - 2000 Changes in Management Hazell, P. and S. Wood. 2008. Drivers of change in global agriculture. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 363:495-515.

Agriculture and Global Climate Change Agricultural Change Changes in Areas: Extent and Landscape structure Changes in Management Practices: e.g. irrigation… Agriculture is a cause of global climate change Biophysical: surface heat balance, aerosols Biogeochemistry: carbon balance, greenhouse gases Agriculture is impacted by global climate change Altered environments for crops and livestock Adaptation by managers Management: irrigation practices, varieties… Extent and landscape structure: land abandonment, new irrigation systems, land clearing …

Climate Change and Suitability for Crops Colder regions get better Drier regions get worse Ramankutty, N., J. A. Foley, J. Norman, and K. McSweeney. 2002. The global distribution of cultivable lands: current patterns and sensitivity to possible climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography 11:377-392.

“Agriculture is embedded in Anthropogenic Biomes” What is agriculture? The cropped/grazed part of landscapes Agroecosystems Part of land use systems Part of multifunctional landscape mosaics Part of human systems Part of Anthropogenic Biomes (Anthromes)

Anthropogenic Biomes a new framework for ecology and earth science in the 21st century Anthromes: global patterns of sustained human interaction with the biosphere.

Anthropogenic Biomes: An Empirical Approach Population density (urban, rural) Croplands Pastures Irrigation Rice Tree & bare cover (Vegetation Continuous Fields) Anthropogenic Biomes Cluster Analysis Ellis & Ramankutty, 2008

Anthropogenic Biomes of the World (v1) Urban & dense settlements 11 12 Dense settlements Croplands 31 Residential irrigated 32 Residential rainfed mosaic 33 Populated irrigated 34 Populated rainfed 35 Remote Wildlands 61 Wild forests 62 Sparse trees 63 Barren Forested 51 Populated forests 52 Remote forests Villages 21 Rice 22 Irrigated 23 Cropped & pastoral 24 Pastoral 25 Rainfed 26 Rainfed mosaic Rangelands 41 Residential 42 Populated 43 Remote *Mosaic: >25% tree cover mixed with > 25% pasture and/or cropland * Ellis & Ramankutty, 2008

Rangelands 40 million km2 0.3 billion people Anthropogenic Biomes of the World 40 million km2 0.3 billion people Rangelands 6% global tree cover 16% global cropland Grazing land, minimal crops and forests Residential Populated Remote Ellis & Ramankutty, 2008

Croplands Remote Rangelands Atlas Mountains, Morocco South Dakota, USA Credit: © Alexander Smart. <http://ars.sdstate.edu/faculty/smarta/Range415/Image035.jpg>

Populated Rangelands Atlas Mountains, Morocco

Croplands 27 million km2 0.9 billion people Anthropogenic Biomes of the World 27 million km2 0.9 billion people Croplands 25% global tree cover 53% global cropland Crops mixed with other land uses Residential irrigated Populated rainfed Residential rainfed mosaic Remote Populated irrigated Ellis & Ramankutty, 2008

Remote Croplands Colombia Basin, Washington, USA Credit: © GWMA <http://www.gwma.org/images/CroplandAdjusted.jpg>

Croplands - Residential Rainfed Mosaic Normandy, France Credit: © JH.Bernard. <http://pagesperso-orange.fr/rmc14/images/IMAGES-RMC/RMC-6.JPG>

Villages 8 million km2 2.6 billion people Anthropogenic Biomes of the World 8 million km2 2.6 billion people Villages 4% global tree cover 24% global cropland Densely populated agriculture rural population >100 person km-2 Rice Pastoral Irrigated Rainfed Cropped & pastoral Rainfed mosaic Ellis & Ramankutty, 2008

Rainfed Mosaic Villages Jintang County, Sichuan Province, China

Rice Villages Danyang County, Jiangsu Province, China

Anthropogenic Biomes Globally People 80% in urban and village anthromes Land 22% wild biomes, 78% anthropogenic biomes NPP 11% wild biomes, 89% anthropogenic biomes 32% in Croplands biomes 33% Forested biomes Crops Villages 24% + 50% in populated croplands (>1 person km-2) Most irrigation and rice is in villages >25% global tree cover is embedded in Croplands

Cultivated Anthromes Global Villages Croplands Land use (%) Urban Land use (%) Land cover (%) Densely settled rice herb irrigated Villages irrigated crops & pasture bare pastoral < trees 8 million km2 rainfed 24% global cropland rainfed mosaic residential irrigated Croplands residential rainfed mosaic populated rainfed 27 million km2 populated irrigated 53% global cropland remote Residential pasture rainfed Rangelands irrigated Populated Remote Populated forests Remote forests Wildlands

Anthropogenic Biomes are Multifunctional Land Mosaics Mixtures of different land uses and land covers. Urban areas are embedded in agricultural areas. Croplands are mixed with trees and housing. Managed vegetation is mixed with semi-natural vegetation (e.g. croplands in rangelands and forests). Hillslopes & mountains are often islands of semi-natural vegetation

© Erle C. Ellis, 2005

Jintang 500m Sample Cell R05_C12 Landsat (28.5m) © Erle C. Ellis, 2005

Jintang 500m Sample Cell R05_C12 IKONOS © Erle C. Ellis, 2005

2001 IKONOS DIANBAI 1 km2 Sample October 27, 2001 Tropical Hilly Region DIANBAI 1 km2 Sample 2001 IKONOS October 27, 2001 Ellis et al., 2006

1945 Aerial DIANBAI 1 km2 Sample May 14, 1944 Tropical Hilly Region Ellis et al., 2006

COVER Change DIANBAI 1945 - 2001 Vegetation - Regeneration Tropical Hilly Region DIANBAI 1 km2 Sample COVER Change 1945 - 2001 Vegetation - Regeneration + Denudation Ellis et al., 2006

Brodie, P. 1990. Crescent over Cathay: China and ICI, 1898 to 1956 Brodie, P. 1990. Crescent over Cathay: China and ICI, 1898 to 1956. Oxford University Press, New York.

chem fertilizer appl picture ~25% of Global N Fertilizer Use chem fertilizer appl picture © Erle C. Ellis, 2002

household survey © Erle C. Ellis, 2005

Agricultural Mosaics and Climate Change Challenges Observing global changes in agricultural mosaics Modeling interactions between climate and management (adaptation & feedbacks) A way forward…. Global Sampling, Measurement and Modeling of Agricultural Landscape Processes http://ecotope.org