Centre for the Study of African Economies Causes and Consequences of Civil War Anke Hoeffler Centre for the Study of African Economies Department of Economics, University of Oxford

Centre for the Study of African Economies Conflicts: Global Prevalence

Centre for the Study of African Economies Conflicts: Global Prevalence

Centre for the Study of African Economies Conflict and War: Global Prevalence

Centre for the Study of African Economies Total Battle Deaths (in Millions)

Centre for the Study of African Economies Battle and War Deaths in Selected African Countries CountryYearsTotal DeathsBattle DeathsProportion of Total Deaths Angola million160,50011% Mozambique million145, % Sudan million55,0003% DRC million145,0006%

Centre for the Study of African Economies Refugees, IDPs and Others of Concern (in Millions)

Centre for the Study of African Economies Civil War Research OnsetDurationPost-War

Centre for the Study of African Economies Collier-Hoeffler Model of Civil War Aim: model and estimate what factors make a country more prone to large scale violent internal conflict Theoretical Model Empirical Tests Method: Global panel data study (cross-country, ) Greed and Grievance in Civil War, OEP, 2004

Centre for the Study of African Economies Explanations of Civil War Onset Economics Political Science Sociology History Geography

Centre for the Study of African Economies Conclusions Little evidence for grievances as a sufficient determinant of conflict Economic factors are important (level, growth and structure of income, sources of finance) Past conflict makes a country more conflict prone

Centre for the Study of African Economies Duration of War Duration is not determined by the same variables as the initiation An increase in natural resource prices tends to increase the duration of war

Centre for the Study of African Economies Post-Conflict Challenges Economic Recovery Risk Reduction

Centre for the Study of African Economies Economic Recovery: Questions raised 1.Is there a peace dividend? 2.Does aid increase growth post-conflict? 3.Does policy improve growth post-conflict?

Centre for the Study of African Economies Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Societies Peace dividend, about 1.1% extra growth 3-7 years during post conflict aid increases growth Traditionally this is not what donors have done

Centre for the Study of African Economies Risk Reduction What about Military Expenditure? Domestic milex increases the risk post conflict UN Peace Keeping? Coalitions of the Willing?

Centre for the Study of African Economies Sequence of international post-conflict practice 1.Negotiated settlement 2.Light presence of peace keeping troops 3.Pump-priming democracy 4.Light footprint 5.Post-conflict elections 6.Withdrawal of international peacekeeping troops

Centre for the Study of African Economies Post-Conflict Risks: Current Policy and Recent Research Current policy models are practitioner and case study based Cost of conflict $64bn Benefit of avoiding conflict for one decade $33bn British PK in Sierra Leone cost $397m Conclusion: enormous differences between situations, can we generalise?

Centre for the Study of African Economies Post Conflict Risks 68 post-conflict episodes 46% of cases recurrence of war 40% of cases recurrence within a decade

Centre for the Study of African Economies Statistical Results There is no safe period during the decade Growth is important, stagnant economies 42% risk,10% income growth 26.9% risk Elections shift the risk, lower in election year, higher after, subsequent elections do not have a different effect to first elections

Centre for the Study of African Economies Results continued PK force absolute not relative size matters (deterrence) Doubling expenditure reduces risk from 40% to 31%

Centre for the Study of African Economies Conclusions on Post-Conflict Risks Post-conflict situations are fragile Emphasis on addressing grievances Democracy and elections although intrinsically desirable are not peace enhancing Robust military and economic assistance required Exclusively statistical Application must be guided by appropriate contextual knowledge

Centre for the Study of African Economies Some References Collier, Paul and Anke Hoeffler Greed and Grievance in Civil Wars, Oxford Economic Papers 56:663–595. Collier, Paul, Anke Hoeffler and Dominic Rohner Beyond Greed and Grievance: Feasibility and Civil War. Oxford Economic Papers 61: Collier, Paul, Hoeffler, Anke and Måns Söderbom On the Duration of Civil War. Journal of Peace Research 41(3): Collier, Paul, Hoeffler, Anke and Måns Söderbom Post-Conflict Risks. Journal of Peace Research 45(4): Collier, Paul, Lance Elliot, Håvard Hegre, Anke Hoeffler, Marta Reynal-Querol and Nicholas Sambanis Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy, World Bank Policy Research Report. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Fearon, James Why do some wars last so much longer than others? Journal of Peace Research 41:275–301. Fearon, James and David Laitin Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war, American Political Science Review 97:75– 90. Gates, Scott Recruitment and allegiance: The microfoundations of rebellion. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46:111–130. Hegre, Hårvard, Tanja Ellingsen, Scott Gates and Nils Petter Gleditsch Towards a democratic civil peace? American Political Science Review 95:33–48. Humphreys, Macartan and Jeremy M. Weinstein Who Fights? The Determinants of Participation in Civil War. American Journal of Political Science 52: Miguel, E., S. Satyanath and E. Sergenti (2004), Economic shocks and civil conflict: An instrumental variables approach, Journal of Political Economy 112:725–753. Regan, Patrick M Sixteen Million One: Understanding Civil War. Paradigm Publishers, Boulder CO. Ross, Michael L What Do We Know about Natural Resources and Civil War? Journal of Peace Research 41: Toft, Monica D Securing the Peace: The Durable Settlements of Civil Wars. Princeton: Princeton University Press.