Climatic changes and evaluation of their effects on Agriculture in Asian Monsoon region (CAAM) Masaru Mizoguchi Department of Global Agricultural Science The University of Tokyo 1 CIGR-Ageng2012 Valencia, Spain 10 July 2012

-Introduction- GRENE Green Network of Excellence program (GRENE) – has started from 2011 – under the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) – Based on “the new growth strategy” which was approved by the Cabinet of Japan in June 2010 Objectives of the program – the domestic leading universities work together to share research resources and research goals – Environmental Information is selected as one of them 2

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What is CAAM? One project in the environmental information under the research framework of the GRENE – One of 6 selected-projects – Biodiversity, Climate, Land, Water, Agriculture, Health Climatic changes and evaluation of their effects on agriculture in Asian monsoon region – supported by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) from 2011 to

Background of the CAAM project Asian monsoon region – Large population (more than 60 % in the world) – Many agricultural countries – Rapid development – Rapid change in land use Need for adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture – against the predicted climatic changes – Control of GHG from agricultural fields Problem – Lack of agro-meteorological and climatological data-bases 5

Project aims of CAAM To improve the reliability of future climate prediction To develop the information platform – will be useful to design adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture against the predicted climatic changes in Asian monsoon region 6

Research targets Development of agro-meteorological and climatological data-bases Evaluation of land surface conditions on climate Elucidation of the effects of climatic changes on major crops Development of the information platform to design adaptation and mitigation strategies of major crops against the predicted climatic changes – in Asian monsoon region 7

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1)Development of Agro-climatological Data-base in the Developing Countries in Asian Monsoon Region (Climate Change Research Team 1: CCR-1) (JAMSTEC) Collection and digitization of agro-meteorological and climate data Completion and opening of the agro-climate database CCR2 Scenario data of agro-climatic conditions from AER1, Overseas collaborating institutes In-situ observation (Vietnam, Philippines) DIAS Routine obs. duration of sunshine, temperature, humidity, wind speed, rainfall Estimated values solar radiation longwave radiation potential evapotranspiration climatic wetness Comparisons Calculation Formulae Special obs. solar radiation longwave radiation Development of station-based and gridded database Improvement of surface water and energy budget model and calculation of agro-meteorological elements 9

2) Impact of Land-Use/Land-Cover (LULC) Changes on the Asian Monsoon Climate - Land-Atmosphere Interaction Study - (Climate Change Research Team 2: CCR-2) (Tokyo Metropolitan University) Long-term changes in rainfall (inter-comparison of several rainfall datasets) Boundary condition datasets for climate simulation (soil moisture etc.) Impact of LULC changes on Asian monsoon climate using regional climate model Meteorologica l data from AER2, Inter-comparison of CMIP3/5 in terms of Land- Atmospheric interaction. Long-term changes in Rainfall over 40 years in May ＋ ー DIAS Meteorological data from CCR1 ＋ ー Takahashi et al. (2010) Takahashi (2011) Rainfall Change due to land use change 10

Presets for joint research (Thailand, Indonesia) 3) Climatic Changes and Evaluation of Their Effects on Agriculture in Asian Monsoon Region Based on a Field Survey -Validation of evaluation system by field survey - (Agricultural Effect Research Team 1: AER-1) (Univ. of Tokyo) Cropping survey and understand their characteristics Examination of potential cultivation by crop models Possible cultivation test for suitable crop system Development of infrastructure for Web applications use 2015 Spinach field ricecassavaspinach CCR-1 AER-2 Rain-fed rice field Cassava field Simulator for Cultivation Possibility of Rice AER-3 11

Rice cultivation possibility prediction tool Collecting crop models & params. （ for Asian Monsoon Region ） 4) Climatic Changes and Evaluation of Their Effects on Agriculture in Asian Monsoon Region Based on a Field Survey - Construction of an Assessment System Using Meteorological Data and Crop Models - (Agricultural Effect Research Team 2: AER-2) (NARO) Rice Cultivar A SpinachCassava ・・ ・ Implementing cultivation simulators with flexibility which can exchange a crop model Simulator execution ↓ Climate change evaluation Results of Climate Change Research Meteorological Data + Climate Change Coef. Clop models Web applications Framework for developing applications Existing Results Improvement of the framework Verification Correction Implementing web applications → Deploying to DIAS 2015 Improvement of simulators Rain Fed Rice Field Rice Cultivar B 12

5) Development of Information Platform to Design Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies of Major Crops against the Predicted Climatic Changes in Asian Monsoon Region (Agricultural Effect Research Team 3: AER-3) (NIAES) Collecting data of meteorology, soil, land cover and agriculture Evaluation of soil temperature and moisture of cropland Development of information platform for adaptation and mitigation strategies Compilation of agro- climate change scenarios Measurement of greenhouse gas emissions from cropland CCR-1 AER-1, 2 Rice field Foreign Institutes for joint research Database for planning adaptation and mitigation strategies CCR-2 13

Radiation data in Philippines 2011 Installation of weather station in Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines

International kick-off meeting 15 The First International Workshop of Climatic Changes and Their Effects on Agriculture in Asian Monsoon Region Date: March 3-5, 2012 Venue: Asia Hotel 296 Phayathai Road, in front of Ratchathewi Skytrain Station, Bangkok 10400, Thailand

Local tour in the International Workshop 16 Rachaburi, Thailand, March 05, 2012

Conclusions The CAAM project has just started under the GRENE program in Japan Development of Agro-meteorological information platform on climate changes – will be useful for the various decision-making in agriculture Education of young researchers – will lead the study of global warming mitigation measures and adaptation research in Asian monsoon countries 17

More information about the CAAM project 18

Gracias! Thank you ありがとうございました (Japan) ขอบคุณคุณ (Thailand) Terima kasih (Indonesia) salamat sa inyo (Philippines) Cảm ơ n bạn (Vietnam) 谢谢 (China) 19