Marriage and Cohabitation in Contemporary China Yu Xie University of Michigan and Peking University

Part I: Traditional Chinese Family

Importance of family in Chinese culture (1) Family is cherished in folk religion. Ancestors are worshiped.

“If you are not filial to parents, it is useless to pray to God”

Importance of family in Chinese culture (2) Filial piety is considered an important character (or merit), especially important for public figures. (Can be basis for promotion.)

Importance of family in Chinese culture (3) Family is an extremely important source of support (money, emotion, education, old-age support, etc.). Informal/Internal transfers of resources

Erosion of the Traditional family in Contemporary China? Yes, to some extent. It’s part of a global phenomenon, “Second Demographic Transition.”

Second Demographic Transition Main driving force: individual freedom, as a result of further economic development. Main institution being affected: the family. Main indicators of the second demographic transition.

Main Indicators of the Second Demographic Transition Late age of marriage. Premarital sex. Non-marital cohabitation. Widespread of divorce. Children born to unmarried mothers. Children raised by single/divorced parents.

Part II: China versus Asia

Social/Economic Changes in Asia GDP per capita (PPP adjusted)a Year China Japan Korea Taiwan 1970 361 13,773 2,808 3,539 1975 429 15,933 3,788 4,932 1980 563 18,749 5,179 7,424 1985 960 21,919 7,191 9,263 1990 1,154 27,718 11,643 13,638 1995 1,931 28,970 15,889 18,542 2000 2,822 29,790 18,729 23,065 2005 4,335 31,380 22,577 26,693 2010 7,130 31,447 26,609 32,105

Has the Second Demographic Transition Occurred in Asia? Total fertility rate Year China Japan Korea Taiwan 1970 5.5 2.1 4.5 3.7 1975 3.8 1.9 3.4 3.0 1980 2.6 2.5 1985 1.8 1.7 1990 2.3 1.5 1.6 1995 1.4 2000 2005 1.3 1.1 2010 1.2 0.9

Has the Second Demographic Transition Occurred in Asia? Mean age at first marriage (men) Year China Japan Korea Taiwan 1970 -- 26.9 27.1 1975 27.0 27.4 26.6 1980 25 27.8 27.3 1985 28.2 28.4 1990 24 29.0 1995 28.5 30.1 2000 28.8 29.3 30.3 2005 27 29.8 30.9 30.6 2010 26 30.5 31.8

Summary Late age of marriage (Mu and Xie 2014; Yu and Xie 2013) Low fertility (well known) Relatively high cohabitation rate (Yu and Xie 2014) Relatively high divorce rate (to be studied) Women’s high level of education and high level of labor force participation (Wang and Xie 2013) Relatively high rate of nuclear family form (Chu et al 2011; Xu et al. 2014) Few to nil out-of-wedlock births (known; to be studied)

Part III: Determinants of Marriage

General Observations Women’s education attainment has reached parity with men. Economic factors have become important determinant of marriage (Yu and Xie 2013). Local housing price has deterring effects on age of marriage (Yu and Xie 2013). Hypergamy marriage pattern persists. Age gap between husband and wife has increased (Mu and Xie 2014).

A Key Finding of Mu and Xie (2014)

Changes in the Determinants of Marriage Entry in Post-Reform Urban China (Yu and Xie 2013) Background China has a tradition of early and universal marriage. During the economic reform, China has undergone many social changes, including consumer revolution, SOE reform, housing reform. After the economic reform, marriage is now a manifestation of stratification; economic prospect has become an important determinant of marriage.

Figure 1a. Kaplan-Meier survival curves of transitions to first marriage for urban males by education (2005 Mini Census Data)

Figure 1.b Kaplan-Meier survival curves of transitions to first marriage for urban females by education (2005 Mini Census Data)

Research Questions Have economic variables become more important in predicting marriage formation? Do local housing prices mediate the relationship between an individual’s economic status and his/her marriage behavior?

Data and Variables Data Method Variables 2003 and 2008 China General Social Survey (Urban Residents) Method Discrete-time hazard model Variables Birth Cohorts Pre-reform cohort (born before 1960) Early-reform cohort (born from 1960 to 1973) Late-reform cohort (born after 1974) Time-invariant Father’s education; Ethnicity Time-variant Age (spline function); Years of schooling; Enrollment ;Work status: unemployment, employed in state sector, employed in non-state sector; Hukou City-level variable Housing price (inflated by CPI, from 1991 to 2008)

Transition to First Marriage for Men: hazard model logit coefficients VARIABLES Pre-reform Cohort (N=15,107) Early-reform Cohort (N=11,068) Late-reform Cohort (N=5,573) Work status (RG: Employed in non-state sector )   Unemployment -0.138 -0.510*** -1.975*** (0.113) (0.178) (0.486) Employed in state sector 0.307*** 0.229** -0.092 (0.077) (0.096) (0.148) Years of schooling -0.016 -0.052*** -0.101*** (0.011) (0.016) (0.027) Age (spline function) 15-21 0.431*** 0.647*** 0.671*** (0.036) (0.0519) (0.0931) 22-25 0.365*** 0.351*** 0.483*** (0.029) (0.034) (0.054) 26-30 0.00284 -0.067 0.150* (0.032) (0.049) (0.079) 31- -0.078*** 0.202** 0.223 (0.019) (0.082) (0.296)  Other Variables Controlled(Father’s education, Ethnicity, Enrollment, Hukou ) 

Housing Reform and Housing Prices (Song and Xie 2014) Housing reform (1988-1999) changed housing as a danwei benefit to be a commodity purchasable on the market. Led to sharp increases in both housing stock and housing prices. Economic determinants have become more important

Education’s role is up; cadre’s role is down Market factors have become more important as housing determinants over time (Song and Xie 2014) Education’s role is up; cadre’s role is down   1988 1995 2002 Years of schooling 0.013*** 0.032*** 0.054*** (0.001) (0.003) Cadre 0.089*** 0.070*** 0.106*** (0.014) (0.019) (0.024)

Regional Variation Regional variation is huge in China

Housing Price and Men’s Age of Marriage

Transition to First Marriage for men and women: interaction with housing price (Yu and Xie 2013)   Male Female Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Schooling Years -0.113*** -0.229*** -0.130*** -0.175*** (0.032) (0.053) (0.027) (0.037) Housing price (10000 RMB) 0.360 -5.490** -0.152 -2.951* (0.487) (2.166) (0.404) (1.639) Housing price*schooling years 0.462*** 0.226* (0.166) (0.128) Constant -18.90*** -18.48*** -22.26*** -22.05*** (2.530) (2.550) (3.201) (3.207) N 3,914 4,629 a. The sample is restricted to the respondents born after 1976, since the data of house price begins from 1991. b. The unit of the house price is 10 thousand RMB per square meter.

Figure 2.a Varying Effects of Years of Schooling on Marriage Risk at Different Levels of Housing Price for Men

Figure 2b. Varying Effects of Years of Schooling on Marriage Risk at Different Levels of Housing Price for Women

Summary In general, employment status has become increasingly important for marriage formation for men in urban China. The advantage of working in state sector in marriage formation process has declined in recent decades for both men and women. The effect of educational attainment varied with local housing price for both men and women.

Part IV: Cohabitation

Cohabitation in China: Social Determinants and Consequences (Yu and Xie 2014) Motivation Cohabitation in China has seldom been studied. Due to lack of suitable data. The aim of this paper is to provide national estimates of cohabitation in China for the first time. We focus on Prevalence Social determinants Demographic consequences The value of studying cohabitation when it just became accepted. Who starts the practice, high status or low status people? Diffusion across social groups.

Chinese Context Social environment Closed-door policy has been broken by the reform that began in 1978. Chinese people have gradually become more familiar with Western culture through various channels. Ideological environment Collectivism during Mao era Rise in individualism: Weaken the restriction of traditional norms on individual behavior, more emphasis on individual interest Tolerance of premarital sex Protection of personal privacy

Contextual Factors Economic and institutional environment University expansion→ without the supervision of parents for college students Housing reform in urban areas Legal description: change the wording from “illegal cohabitation” to “non-marital cohabitation” Increase in divorce rate and delay in first marriage age

Data and Variables China Family Panel Studies (2010 and 2012) Analytical Sample: people born before 1980. Dependent variable Whether cohabitated with the first marriage spouse before first marriage (1=yes). Explanatory variables Socio-economic status: schooling years Family background: father’s education and CCP membership Institutional conditions: hukou and CCP membership Economic development: county GDP per capital Controls Birth cohort, ethnicity, sample region

Cohabitation before marriage by cohort of first marriage and education (Xie et al. 2013) Non-cohabitation Cohabitation Total (obs.) 1970 prior 98.2 1.8 100.0 (1876) 1970~1979 98.0 2.0 100.0 (1647) 1980~1989 95.0 5.0 100.0 (2763) 1990~1999 87.9 12.1 100.0 (2283) 2000~2012 67.4 32.6 100.0 (2765) Non-cohabitation Cohabitation Total (obs.) Husband Education Illiterate 94.3 5.7 100.0 (2507) Primary School 89.8 10.2 100.0 (2625) Middle School 85.1 14.9 100.0 (3432) High School 82.9 17.1 100.0 (1512) College and Above. 77.3 22.7 100.0 (784) Wife 95.6 4.4 100.0 (4496) 86.8 13.2 100.0 (2257) 81.8 18.2 100.0 (2676) 81.0 19.0 100.0 (1148) 74.5 25.5 100.0 (604)

Logit model for cohabitation experience before first marriage (Yu and Xie 2014)   Male Female Schooling years 0.018* 0.003 Father’s education (RG: Primary school) Middle school 0.053 0.028 High school -0.087 0.361** College 0.338 0.073 Missing 0.100 -0.056 Father’s CCP (RG: Non-CCP) CCP members -0.112 -0.079 0.058 0.137 Urban hukou 0.246*** 0.177* CCP member -0.230* -0.389* County-level GDP per capital (10000RMB) 0.073*** 0.098*** Other variables controlled N 14,862 15,148

Consequence for Divorce? (Cox model, Yu and Xie 2014)   Men Women Cohabited before first marriage 0.514***a -0.091 (0.149) (0.215) Other variables controlled Observations 12,862 13,158 It’s puzzling that the results differ between men and women. One possibility is that women may underreport divorce or Cohabitation.

Consequence for Premarital Pregnancy? (logit model, Yu and Xie 2014)   Men Women Cohabited before first marriage 0.967*** 0.932*** (0.104) (0.116) Other variables controlled Observations 12,862 13,158

Summary: Differences and similarities and between China and US (Yu and Xie 2014)   US China Men Women Determinants (different)   Own SES Negative Positive No difference Family background Urban residents Political status Economic development Consequences (similar)   Marital stability Insignificant Premarital childbearing

Thank You!