Catching and Riding the Wave of Demographic Change: From costs to opportunity (costs) Gary Rhoades Center for the Study of Higher Education University of Arizona Gary Rhoades Center for the Study of Higher Education University of Arizona

Three points beyond: “Catch a wave and …” ◊Public policy discourse at the state level ◊System & campus level discourse and strategic direction ◊Incentives and accountability metrics ◊Public policy discourse at the state level ◊System & campus level discourse and strategic direction ◊Incentives and accountability metrics

Public policy discourse ◊Tidal Waves II & I in California (Clark Kerr) ◊Difference between 1993 and 1960, in California and nationally: from the wave as an opportunity to invest in (we can build out for it) to the wave as a threat and a cost to be contained (we can’t afford it). ◊Declining state support nationally ◊Tidal Waves II & I in California (Clark Kerr) ◊Difference between 1993 and 1960, in California and nationally: from the wave as an opportunity to invest in (we can build out for it) to the wave as a threat and a cost to be contained (we can’t afford it). ◊Declining state support nationally

Opportunity costs of cost containment ◊Demographic wave, beyond tidal wave ◊The demographic wave is of color, and it is classed (opportunity cost of > social stratification) ◊The demographic wave as needing accommodation (and therefore as expensive) versus recognizing the demographic wave as infusing talent and energy (opportunity cost of not transforming ourselves by chasing, catching, and riding the wave). ◊Demographic wave, beyond tidal wave ◊The demographic wave is of color, and it is classed (opportunity cost of > social stratification) ◊The demographic wave as needing accommodation (and therefore as expensive) versus recognizing the demographic wave as infusing talent and energy (opportunity cost of not transforming ourselves by chasing, catching, and riding the wave).

System and campus level discourse and strategic direction ◊Similar sense of constraint in public sector, of fiscal realities, contributing to more “academic capitalism”. ◊That has contributed to changing the way institutions organize and are oriented to student aid (McPherson & Shapiro, 1998). ◊So too, I think, it has contributed to the expansion of strategic enrollment management practices aimed at enhancing institutional resources, & prestige. ◊In this context, low income students are seen as being costly to recruit, retain. So the pattern is generally to develop programs at the margins. ◊Similar sense of constraint in public sector, of fiscal realities, contributing to more “academic capitalism”. ◊That has contributed to changing the way institutions organize and are oriented to student aid (McPherson & Shapiro, 1998). ◊So too, I think, it has contributed to the expansion of strategic enrollment management practices aimed at enhancing institutional resources, & prestige. ◊In this context, low income students are seen as being costly to recruit, retain. So the pattern is generally to develop programs at the margins.

The Global pattern: “Engines of Inequality” Less access over time for underrepresented minorities, relative to high school graduation (35 of 50 flagships reduced access relative to high school graduation). Less access for low-income students (44 of 50 flagships reduced access relative to other universities). Public universities pursuing “ better ” students and wealthier (and out-of-state) students to maximize their prestige and their net tuition revenue. Strategic enrollment management has led to more universities chasing the same students to win at the same prestige and revenue games. It is not only the flagships that are playing this game; the next tier of publics is moving in this direction too. Less access over time for underrepresented minorities, relative to high school graduation (35 of 50 flagships reduced access relative to high school graduation). Less access for low-income students (44 of 50 flagships reduced access relative to other universities). Public universities pursuing “ better ” students and wealthier (and out-of-state) students to maximize their prestige and their net tuition revenue. Strategic enrollment management has led to more universities chasing the same students to win at the same prestige and revenue games. It is not only the flagships that are playing this game; the next tier of publics is moving in this direction too.

From reactive “ strategic ” imitation …

To creative, strategic imagination

The importance of place Working to the historical, comparative advantage and strength of one’s place. Working to sustainable, distinctive niches.

Incentives & accountability metrics ◊More complete accounting internally, of the costs of pursuing and serving various student populations, to make informed decisions about strategies. ◊Rethink our accountability externally, because graduation rates and time to completion are organizational efficiency measures that are socially inefficient. ◊Value added beyond undergraduate learning outcomes Mapping the institution’s specific contributions to intergenerational upward social mobility, human capital development, and “non-cognitive” outcomes. Value added that fulfills our social compact. ◊More complete accounting internally, of the costs of pursuing and serving various student populations, to make informed decisions about strategies. ◊Rethink our accountability externally, because graduation rates and time to completion are organizational efficiency measures that are socially inefficient. ◊Value added beyond undergraduate learning outcomes Mapping the institution’s specific contributions to intergenerational upward social mobility, human capital development, and “non-cognitive” outcomes. Value added that fulfills our social compact.

Catching and riding the wave of demographic change