Tony Dutzik, Senior Policy Analyst, Frontier Group Presentation to the ACT Canada Sustainable Mobility Summit 29 October 2013

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Today’s presentation  The technological revolution and the end of the Driving Boom.  Technology-enabled transportation tools: what they are, why they matter and implications for driving and transit.  Where do we go from here?  Q&A

 U.S. vehicle travel peaked in  Americans now drive as many miles in total as we did in late 2004 and as many miles per capita as we did in  Transit ridership increased 2% from in U.S.

Vehicle travel has stagnated or declined in several advanced industrial economies in recent years. Source: Van Dender and Clever, 2013, International Transport Forum

 The smartphone has put location-aware, Internet connected, mobile technology in the hands of tens of millions of people … almost all of them since U.S. Market Penetration of Various Technologies, Sources: Pew Center for Internet & American Life, U.S. Department of Commerce

 Vehicle distance traveled declined by 23% among U.S. 16 to 34 year olds from 2001 to  Distance traveled by transit, biking and walking increased among this group.  In 2012, two-thirds of young adults owned a smartphone vs. roughly half of all Americans. Young adults were twice as likely to have a smartphone as 50 to 64-year-olds. Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Household Travel Survey

 What are the connections between technology and transportation?  What new technology-enabled tools have the potential to affect transportation choices in the years to come?  What evidence is there of their influence on driving, vehicle ownership and other aspects of mobility?

 Technology can replace travel. (e.g. telecommuting replacing work trips)  Technology can stimulate travel. (e.g. using the Internet to research flights or hotels for a vacation)  Technology can encourage changes in the time and manner of travel.

 The ability to remain connected while in travel is an increasingly valuable amenity.  Adding wi-fi on intercity train in California resulted in 2.7% increase in # of trips, with greatest impact among new riders. (Mokhtarian, et al., 2013)  Increasing alarm about dangers of distracted driving could result in new restrictions in mobile device use while driving.

 Services that assist travelers or enable new economic models for transportation, and that are made possible by the Internet and/or mobile communications.  Focus on means of travel other than household-owned motor vehicles.  Provide a “field guide” to these emerging tools and services and demonstrate impact on transportation behaviors. Photo illustration: Harriet Eckstein Graphic Design.

 Fleet-based ◦ Round-trip (e.g. Zipcar) ◦ One-way (e.g. car2go) ◦ Autolib’ EVs  Peer-to-peer  ~ 1 million North American members  Carsharing associated with vehicle travel decrease of >27% and reductions in vehicle ownership.  Significant share of carsharing members report increased use of transit. (Shaheen, et al., 2009)  ~ 1 million North American members  Carsharing associated with vehicle travel decrease of >27% and reductions in vehicle ownership.  Significant share of carsharing members report increased use of transit. (Shaheen, et al., 2009)

 >30 systems in U.S.  NYC, Chicago added in NYC: 8.8 million miles traveled since May.  About 5 percent of bikeshare members report having sold a personal vehicle.  >25% report driving less as a result of bikeshare.  Users in some cities reported decreased use of transit (D.C., Toronto, Montreal) but others reported increase in rail transit use. (Shaheen, et al., 2012)  About 5 percent of bikeshare members report having sold a personal vehicle.  >25% report driving less as a result of bikeshare.  Users in some cities reported decreased use of transit (D.C., Toronto, Montreal) but others reported increase in rail transit use. (Shaheen, et al., 2012)

 Static routing & scheduling  Real-time.  Mobile ticketing.  >60% of N. American transit agencies with the ability to track vehicles now supply real-time information to the public. (APTA, 2013)  Users of real-time information report reductions in perceived wait times. A few surveys (Chicago, Seattle) have found increases in ridership or willingness to ride.  >60% of N. American transit agencies with the ability to track vehicles now supply real-time information to the public. (APTA, 2013)  Users of real-time information report reductions in perceived wait times. A few surveys (Chicago, Seattle) have found increases in ridership or willingness to ride.

 Ridesharing (ride matching & on-demand)  “Transportation networking services,” (e.g. Lyft)  Taxi hailing and black car services (e.g. HailO, Uber)  Intermodal trip-planning apps.  New and emerging business models. Implications for vehicle ownership and travel patterns yet to be determined.

 Do new technology-enabled services complement or compete with established transit service?

Technology-enabled tools reduce barriers to other modes of travel. Usually (though not always) driving.

The combination of many services may enable access to 24/7 mobility with more choices and lower cost – supporting car-free and car-light lifestyles.

 Low hanging fruit ◦ Provide schedules and maps on-line. Provide real-time information. Open source, open data wherever possible. ◦ Wi-fi and cellular connectivity on transit vehicles. ◦ These are proven to be valuable amenities to riders and represent a powerful selling point vis-à-vis driving.

 Embrace a multi-modal future ◦ “We’re all multimodal now.” ◦ Provide connections with carshare, bikeshare, rideshare, transit. ◦ Develop and encourage multi-modal trip-planning tools ◦ Break down silos in planning, funding and administration.

 Modernize regulations ◦ New services emerging that were never anticipated by previous generations of policy-makers. ◦ Need to ensure that regulations balance need for consumer protection and public safety with benefits of new services.

 Expand access ◦ To date: many new services emerging in prosperous metros with large populations of young, tech-savvy people. ◦ Technology-enabled tools have as much, if not more, potential to enhance value and expand options in other settings (e.g. suburban & rural transit, transit in small cities.) ◦ Need to consider the proper public sector role.

 Look down the road ◦ Technological changes are among the many changes that should be influencing how we plan for transportation. ◦ We know very little about them. ◦ Need to expand amount and quality of transportation data and reevaluate existing models to ensure that plans for future reflect current trends.

Tony Dutzik Frontier Group