China: Today, Tomorrow and the Transition Kenneth W. Hunter Maryland China Initiative, University of Maryland
What is China China and Our Common Global Agenda: Looking to 2013 and Beyond China components of your alternative scenarios and plans
What is China? What westerners see as tourists and observers vs. the big, diverse and intense China we experience China by the maps China by the numbers Chinese and American traditions and temperament
Ken as tourist
What tourists and observers see
China for tourists and observers: the Sichuan earthquake
Experiencing China today Big Diverse Intense
Big, diverse and intense: massive industrial operations
Big, diverse and intense: coal powered
Big, diverse and intense: largest car market
Big, diverse and intense: more cars
Big, diverse and intense: construction everywhere
Big, diverse and intense: more construction
Big, diverse and intense: massive cement operations
Big, diverse and intense: small farm agriculture
Big, diverse and intense: more farms
Big, diverse and intense: water
Big, diverse and intense: massive production facilities
Big, diverse and intense: worker protests
Big, diverse and intense: Massive Factory “Towns”
Big, diverse and intense: massive rail system development
Big, diverse and intense: massive port operations
Big, diverse and intense: shipping around the world
Big, diverse and intense: industrial and research parks
Big, diverse and intense: new environmental technology industry
Big, diverse and intense: more environmental industry
Big, diverse and intense: retailing is taking off
Big, diverse and intense: development of the professions -- IT
Big, diverse and intense: development of the professions -- finance
Big, diverse and intense: development of investment markets
Big, diverse and intense: huge reserves and currency pegged to dollar
Big, diverse and intense: military development
Big, diverse and intense: civilian aircraft development
China by the maps Make sure you are using the correct maps!
China by the maps: The World as Seen from America
China by the maps: Great River Systems
China by the maps: borders
China by the maps: Asia as Seen from Asia
China by the numbers
China by the numbers: Population Populations1.3 billion Rate of change0.5 Gender disparity115 males to 100 females Civilian labor force800 million Labor force distribution: Agriculture40 percent Mfg, mining, utilities, const.27 Services33
China by the numbers: Production GDP (PPP)$10 trillion GDP per capita (PPP)$7,500 Annual growth rate8 to 12 percent Origin of GDP: Agriculture11 percent Mfg, mining, utilities, const.49 percent Services40 percent
China by the numbers: foreign trade Exports: percent of GDP33 percent Imports: percent of GDP26 percent Major exports: Telecommunications equipment13 percent Computers11 Electrical and semiconductors11 Clothing 9
China by the numbers: foreign trade Imports: percent of GDP26 percent Major imports: Electrical and semiconductors20 Petroleum and products15 Iron and steel 9 Professional instruments 6
China by the numbers: foreign trade
China by the numbers: Reserves and Currency Value Foreign Exchange Reserves$2,850 billion Renminbi per dollar: 2005 and earlier Today6.6 Resumed gradual appreciation in June 2010
China and U.S. traditions and temperaments Chinese traditions and temperament 2,500 + years And United States traditions and temperament 250+ years
China and U.S. traditions and temperaments A basis for Convergence, Co-evolution or Conflict through the 21 st Century?
China and U.S. traditions and temperaments A basis for Convergence, Co-evolution or Conflict through the 21 st Century?
China and Our Common Global Agenda The Questions You Should Be Asking
China Component of Alternative Scenarios Ken’s Patterns of Change and Leadership and Luck Matrix
China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic Barring bad luck and bad leadership, China will complete its modernization to catch up and regain a leadership position in the world in the next few decades in a process of co-evolution with the West. Today all of the key elements of that modernization are mid- way (1979 to 2040) but have significant momentum:
China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic Moving all China’s people out of poverty Industrialization and urbanization within climate change limits on a per capita basis Science and technology up to date in application with a few innovations Governance institutions with high competence and much improved ethics but still as a one party system Regional political, economic and security relationships stabilized but still stressed over water and supply chain protection International relationships and participation on a basis of mutual respect and collaboration where needed
China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic The question: Does China have the momentum, capacity and resilience to survive the next globally cascading crisis and remain in a leadership position?
China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic If yes, China will participate in shaping the post-crisis global institutions, which will involve confronting complexity while modernizing, streamlining and rebalancing our institutions.
China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic If China fails, all the world will have a very large problem to deal with and the next global crisis likely will be very deep and very long in duration.
Questions Kenneth W. Hunter Senior Fellow Maryland China Initiative University of Maryland Tel: or