University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire Results from a Survey Examining Adult and College Student Public Opinion on Climate Change in China and the United States Students Brittany Flaherty, David Hahn, Shawn Peterson, Greg Sikowski and Helue Vazquez Valverde Faculty Mentor Eric Jamelske, Ph.D. University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire

Outline  Introduction  Background –Climate Change Science, Public Opinion, International Policy  Survey/Sample  Results  Conclusion  Discussion/Q&A

University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire US Senate Hearings  Dr. James Hansen - three points  Earth is warmer in 1988 than any time in history of instrumental measurements  Global warming now large enough to ascribe with high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship to greenhouse effect  Computer simulations indicate greenhouse effect is already large enough to affect probability of extreme events such as heat waves  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) formed

University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire IPCC 4 th Assessment  Warming of the climate system is unequivocal  Increases in global average air and ocean temperatures  Widespread melting of snow and ice  Rising global average sea level  Droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and intensity of tropical cyclones

University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire IPCC 4 th Assessment  “Very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming.”  Continued greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions“…would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.”

University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire International Policy - UNFCCC  United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change  Kyoto Protocol, passed in 1997 and entered into force by ratifying countries in  Kyoto Protocol did not require GHG reductions by developing countries (Non-Annex I parties)  Burden of change on developed nations (Annex I parties)

University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire International Policy - Kyoto Failure  Exclusion of China cited as important determinant in US decision to not ratify/join the Kyoto Protocol  Global GHG emissions continue to rise  US emissions were not reduced, China emissions increased significantly  Little meaningful international action cooperatively through the UNFCC post-Kyoto

University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire Continued Warnings  IPCC 5 th Assessment  “…extremely likely human influence has been dominant cause of observed warming since mid-20th century. Continued GHG emissions will cause further warming and changes in climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of GHG emissions.”  3 rd US National Climate Assessment  “Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present.”

University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire Scientific Consensus in Literature  Oreskes (2004)  Doran and Kendall-Zimmerman (2009)  Anderegg et al. (2010)  Cook et al. (2013)  97–98% of active climate researchers in agreement with IPCC

-China 2012 emissions 1.88 times larger than US emissions -China + US 2012 emissions comprise 41.6% of global total Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center Emissions in China, the US and the Rest of the World -US cumulative emissions from times larger than China emissions -US + China cumulative emissions from comprise 38.5% of global total Source: World Resources Institute, Climate Data Explorer

-China 2012 emissions are 1.88 times larger than US emissions -China 2012 per capita emissions are only 0.44 of US emissions -China 2012 emissions per unit of GDP are just over 2 times as large as US emissions Total, Per Capita and Per Unit of GDP Emissions in China and the US

“More droughts and floods and wildfires are not a joke. My plan will continue to reduce the carbon pollution that is heating our planet because climate change is not a hoax.” -Barack Obama "Do I think the world's getting hotter? I don't know, I think it is, but I don't know if it's mostly caused by humans. What I'm not willing to do is spend trillions of dollars on something I don't know the answer to.” - Mitt Romney Quotes from 2012 US Presidential Campaign

Skepticism and Denial in the United States

“Climate change is a grave challenge to the sustainable development of the human society…the Chinese government is determined to address climate change in the process of pursuing sustainable development.” “Developed countries must take responsibility for their historical cumulative emissions and current high per capita emissions to change their unsustainable way of life and to substantially reduce their emissions and provide financial support and transfer technology to developing countries.” Quotes from Chinese Government Officials

University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire International Policy – The US & China  International climate cooperation is controversial because of politics, special interests and individual differences within countries…  As well as issues of responsibility, blame and fairness across countries...  Controversy centers on differences between developed and developing nations…  Highlighted by the stalemate between US and China

University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire What do Adults and College Students in the United States and China Think About Climate Change?

University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire Chinese Research Partners  Jinan University, Guangzhou  Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu  University of International Business and Economics, Beijing  Low Carbon Economy Institute  Xian University of Posts and Telecommunications, Xian  Many Chinese student research assistants

University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire Project Support  UW Sabbatical Program  UWEC International Fellows Program  UWEC Foundation  Xcel Energy and Northwestern Bank

Our Survey  Is climate change happening?  Is it anthropogenic?  What does science say?  What is the threat?  How concerned are you?  What should be done?

Our Sample (N = 7,358)  2,335 US college students (Online, professors, extra credit, 60%)  CA, NE, RI, WI, CO, MD, SC  1,670 Chinese college students (Online, professors, extra credit, 60%)  Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Xian, Shanghai  1,306 US adults (Online, postcards, gift card, 7%)  CA, NE, RI, WI  2,047 Chinese adults (In person, 40%)  Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Xian

University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire More Analysis of Climate Change Concern  Ordinary Least Squares regression on self-reported concern about climate change among college students in US and China  Concern is measured on scale from 1 – 5 –1 = not at all concerned –2 = not very concerned –3 = somewhat concerned –4 = concerned –5 = very concerned  What factors influence the level of concern

Note: Statistical significance is denoted as *** = 0.01 level, ** = 0.05 level and * = 0.10 level.

University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire Conclusion  Chinese citizens show greater acceptance of CC realities compared to US citizens  More likely to believe in anthropogenic CC  Less likely to see scientific disagreement on anthropogenic CC  More likely to see threat to humans from CC  Less likely to be unconcerned about CC  More likely to support joining international CC agreement

University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire Possible Reasons for US Results  Climate change coverage in US media and political nature of debate is much different than situation in China  US has Six Americas ranging from alarmed/concerned to doubtful/dismissive  Significant variation in climate change views among Americans

University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire Possible Reasons for Chinese Results  Chinese government states climate change is real and important  Chinese media reports climate change as scientific consensus  Chinese citizens are accustomed to respecting government authority and look to government for leadership on climate change  Within the Chinese culture, people are very respectful of education and knowledge (science)  China has experienced extreme weather events including flood, drought and heat waves as well as intense air pollution and smog

Questions & Discussion

Appendix

Demographics  US college students  Average age = 19.4 (stdv=1.3), 49.6% Male, 81.6% White  Chinese college students  Average age = 19.7 (stdv=1.3), 44.9% Male, 95.4% Han  US adults  Average age = 49.7 (stdv=14.3), 53.2% Male, 87.7% White  Chinese adults  Average age = 39.1 (stdv=12.7), 56.4% Male, 93.8% Han

Demographics  Household Income  Based on US Census and China Statistical Yearbook  US Dollars ($) or Chinese Yuan (CNY)  Parents for college students  Good distribution across 8 categories  Education  Highest level completed  Parents for college students  Good distribution across 5 categories  Political Ideology (US)  Adult: Liberal (37.4%), Moderate (29.4%), Conservative (26.1%), Other (7.1%)  College: Liberal (29.4%), Moderate (34.1%), Conservative (29.6%), Other (6.9%)

Question: What are the three most important issues for society to address? Respondents were given 15 issues to choose from with responses coded as most important = 3, 2 nd most important = 2, 3 rd most important = 1 Figure reports selected results as weighted average Economy is most important in US, Environment is most important in China