Opening and Welcome Lee Gillam University of Surrey

Welcome Attendees and presenters Workshop context – NAMIC – ACE/GIDA – FIONA Goal: FP6 IP (and general wealth)

Remarks You can make a lot of money from the stock market; you can lose a lot of money also You can lose money in a very short time but it takes a long time to make money Just because a stock goes down, doesn’t mean it can’t go lower Stock market not really a gamble if you pick good companies you think will do well, not just because of the stock price The long-term returns from stocks are both relatively predictable and also far superior to the long-term returns from bonds

Winners/losers Microsoft – Went public in 1986 – March 86, 19c a share – Sept 1989 – just under $1 a share – April $10 a share – Dec $20 a share – Feb $40 a share – Peak Dec $ a share – Currently $51 a share

Winners/losers Microsoft – Hardware Wars – Dell, HP, Compaq, IBM – Microsoft sold what ran on these boxes – did not care about hardware costs – Lower prices of hardware – consumer demand up = more sales of Windows – Microsoft makes more profits – Petrol companies don’t care how much cars cost, as long as they use lots of fuel!

Winners/losers Marconi (Caveat Emptor!) – June 1987, £1.99 per share – May 1988, £1.16 per share – July 1989, £2.17 per share – December 1990, £1.37 – August 1993, £2.93 – December 1999, £10.90 per share – August 2000, £12.20 – July 2002, 3.1p a share – Lost 99.75% of value in these last 2 years Reuters – ‘Bad News?’ – Jan 1986, 94.5p – Feb 2000, £14.02 – July 2002, £2.80 – Lost 80% of value in just over 2 years Thorntons – Sweet!! – Feb 2000, £1.23 – July 2002, £1.08 – ‘Comforting’ to know?

Winners/losers 1998 – S&P500 up 28%. 50 biggest up 40%, other 450 hardly moved Late 1990s Intel, Cisco and a few others dominated NASDAQ $100,000 in S&P500 on July , fully invested, up to $341,722. Out of market for 30 days of biggest gains, only $153,792 $ in long term bonds paying 7%, income $ Inflation rate of 5%, buying power halved in 10 years, and two-thirds in 15 years. Stocks should give 11% return, 3% dividend, 8% growth in dividends and stock prices.

1990’s winners Company$10,000 at end 1989 = (end 1999) Dell$8.9M Microsoft$960,000 Intel$372,000 Harley Davidson$251,000 Gap$232,000 10% compounded interest for 10 years = $26000

Sources of Information One up on Wall Street: Peter Lynch Beating the Street: Peter Lynch Everyone’s guide to online stock investing: Alexander Davidson Yahoo Finance

Schedule : Opening and Welcome Lee Gillam: University of Surrey : Events and the Causes of Events: Khurshid Ahmad, University of Surrey : Automatic Analysis of Corporate Financial Disclosures: Darina M. Slattery, Richard F.E. Sutcliffe, Eamonn J. Walsh: University of Limerick and University College Dublin : A Financial News Summarisation System based on Lexical Cohesion: Paulo Cesar Fernandes de Oliveira, Khurshid Ahmad, Lee Gillam: University of Surrey : Break : Processing the language of predicting and forecasting in an Italian corpus of economic reports: Maria Teresa Musacchio, University of Trieste : Economic News and Stock Market Correlation: A Study of the UK Market:Lee Gillam, Khurshid Ahmad, Saif Ahmad, Matthew Casey, David Cheng, Tugba Taskaya, Paulo C F de Oliveira and Pensiri Manomaisupat: University of Surrey : Discussion and Closing Remarks