Recent Developments in the World Economy and Implications for Turkey Mark Lewis IMF Senior Resident Representative to Turkey Presentation at Atılım University Ankara May 27, 2013

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

The risks have been reduced, but the global economy remains weak  Policies have addressed major risks but other risks remain  Global economy in broadly three speeds Emerging market and developing countries (EMDE): coping well US, other advanced economies (AE): shift from public to private demand in train Euro area: the handover from public to private demand is still stuck  Priorities AE: achieving a better fiscal/financial/monetary policy mix EMDE: rebuilding policy room for maneuver and structural reforms

Activity is beginning to recover after the slowdown in 2012 Industrial Production and World Trade (annualized percent change of three-month moving average over previous three-month moving average) Source: Haver Analytics; Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis for CPB trade volume index; and IMF staff calculations.

Financial conditions have also improved Sources: Haver Analytics; EPFR Global; and IMF staff calculations. Equity Markets (2007 = 100; national currency) Apr. 13 Net Portfolio Capital Flows to Emerging Markets (billions of US dollars; quarterly flows)

However, bank lending conditions still tight, especially in the euro area Nonfinancial Firm and Household Credit Growth 1\ (year-over-year percent change) 12:Q4 Lending Conditions (Net percentage of domestic respondents tightening standards for loans) Sources: Lending surveys by the Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and the U.S. Federal Reserve for house holds and corporations; Haver Analytics; and IMF staff estimates. 1\ Flow of funds data are used for the euro area, Spain and the United States. Italian bank loans to Italian residents are corrected for securitizations.

7 Credit growth in Emerging Markets (EMs) has slowed Sources: Haver Analytics; IMF, World Economic Outlook; and IMF staff calculations. Real Credit Growth (percent change from one year ago) Jan. 13 Credit to GDP (percent)

WorldU.S. Euro Area JapanBrazilRussiaIndiaChinaTurkey 2013 (April 2013) (Jan. 2013) (April 2013) (Jan. 2013) WEO Real GDP Growth Projections (percent change from a year earlier) Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook. The Outlook is still weak and uncertain. The forecast has been revised down 8

The forecast suggests a three-speed global economy Advanced Economies (percent change from a year earlier) Emerging Economies (percent change from a year earlier) Jan. WEO April WEO April WEO Jan. WEO LAC: Latin America and the Caribbean; SSA: Sub-Saharan Africa; data are interpolated from annual frequency values Source: IMF Staff Estimates.

Euro area Accommodative monetary policy (2014 inflation < < 2% !!) and working on better pass throughAccommodative monetary policy (2014 inflation < < 2% !!) and working on better pass through Restructuring weak banks, with help of ESM if neededRestructuring weak banks, with help of ESM if needed Stronger EMU: banking union and capital market integrationStronger EMU: banking union and capital market integration More entitlement reform and more structural reformMore entitlement reform and more structural reform Accommodative monetary policy (2014 inflation < < 2% !!) and working on better pass throughAccommodative monetary policy (2014 inflation < < 2% !!) and working on better pass through Restructuring weak banks, with help of ESM if neededRestructuring weak banks, with help of ESM if needed Stronger EMU: banking union and capital market integrationStronger EMU: banking union and capital market integration More entitlement reform and more structural reformMore entitlement reform and more structural reform What to do? Work on medium-term policies and don’t overburden monetary policy! U.S and Japan Medium-term fiscal plans and entitlement reformMedium-term fiscal plans and entitlement reform U.S. needs to durably address debt ceilingU.S. needs to durably address debt ceiling Japan needs a strong medium-term growth strategyJapan needs a strong medium-term growth strategy Accommodative monetary policy, including BoJ reformsAccommodative monetary policy, including BoJ reforms Medium-term fiscal plans and entitlement reformMedium-term fiscal plans and entitlement reform U.S. needs to durably address debt ceilingU.S. needs to durably address debt ceiling Japan needs a strong medium-term growth strategyJapan needs a strong medium-term growth strategy Accommodative monetary policy, including BoJ reformsAccommodative monetary policy, including BoJ reforms 11 EMDCEMDC Rebuild policy spaceRebuild policy space Watch for legacies of past credit growth or ongoing expansionsWatch for legacies of past credit growth or ongoing expansions Structural reforms: to reaccelerate potential output, absorb inflowing capital productively, rebalance growthStructural reforms: to reaccelerate potential output, absorb inflowing capital productively, rebalance growth Rebuild policy spaceRebuild policy space Watch for legacies of past credit growth or ongoing expansionsWatch for legacies of past credit growth or ongoing expansions Structural reforms: to reaccelerate potential output, absorb inflowing capital productively, rebalance growthStructural reforms: to reaccelerate potential output, absorb inflowing capital productively, rebalance growth

FINANCIAL STABILITY RISKS REMAIN

In the U.S, corporations are building more debt 10 U.S. high-yield covenant-lite loans U.S. corporate debt-to-earnings 1997:Q1 2000:Q4 2007:Q4 Current cycle (2011:Q4) ’97 ’99 ’01 ’03 ’05 ’07 ’09 ’11 ’12

Emerging Markets are also accumulating debt 12 Emerging Market nonfinancial corporate leverage (percent, debt-to-equity) Selected emerging market bond, equity and loan issuance (U.S. dollar, bn)

13 Nonresident holdings of local currency government debt (share of total; in percent) Local currency yield tightening (Dec 08-Dec 12) (in basis points) Hungary Poland Indonesia Mexico Turkey Korea Brazil Malaysia South Africa Very sensitive to external factors

15 Euro Area U.S. & Japan Safer global financial system Global Avoid financial excesses Smooth exit U.S. Avoid bad releveraging Keep the guard up Emerging Markets Remaining Old Risks New Challenges Stronger integration Make banks, corporates and sovereigns safer Keep sovereigns safe For financial stability, dealing with old risks and new challenges

TURKEY ACHIEVED A “SOFT LANDING” 16

Turkey: a welcome slowing of growth and domestic demand 17

Lower imports reduce the current account deficit; although financing still is short term 18

Inflation is not high

Unemployment has increased, but not much 20

Short-term model suggests momentum in Q1

Reflecting, among other things, faster credit growth 22

A soft landing is a new achievement 23

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND TURKEY 24

Domestic savings are low, which means:

There is a high current account deficit

Making Turkey dependent on foreign capital inflows 27

There has been trade diversification, but the EU still important

A challenge is to preserve and expand market share

Turkey will benefit from more Foreign Direct Investment 30

Thank You! For more information: IMF Website: IMF Turkey Website: