Net Energy  Next Energy by Ron Swenson

Swenson Curve To avoid deprivation, humanity must match depletion with conservation and enduring substitution.

Time Consequences of Delayed Energy Investment begin investment before decline Net Energy Production Begin investment during decline

A flurry of books: What’s going down…

Okay, we know what’s going down … But what’s coming up?

Thomas Edison “I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.” ( )

The Party's Over “Photovoltaic electricity is still expensive.” Richard Heinberg

Beyond Oil “Solar electrical generation is not yet competitive for large-scale facilities...” Kenneth S. Deffeyes

I thought we were talking about Energy!? So how did Economics (an instrument of policy) get into the picture?

Oil, Jihad & Destiny “Solar power technology, however, is still in the stone age.” Ronald R. Cooke

The Long Emergency “… solar power... works, though not nearly as well as fossil fuel … James Howard Kunstler

“But all of them combined -- sun, wind, and water -- could never produce enough energy to replace the astronomical amounts of fossil fuel the West is consuming...” Pierre Chomat Oil Addiction: The World in Peril

Global Solar Energy Balance Solar Energy Input (TeraWatts)178,000 Reflected to Space Immediately53,000 Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat82,000 Used to Evaporate Water (Weather)40,000 Captured by Plant Photosynthesis100 Total Energy Used by Human Society 13 Total Energy Used by US Society2.5 Total Human Food Energy 0.6

Energy State and Quality (Grade) “In contrast to its vast quantity, the quality of solar energy is low relative to fossil fuels. [  ] “ The EROI for fossil fuels tends to be large while that for solar tends to be low. “Higher energy densities also contribute to the higher EROI for fossil fuels relative to many renewable fuels.” Cutler Cleveland Tell that to a street vendor in Mexico City. … and what is the premise of converting solar field energy into fuel in the first place? … unless you consider depletion, ecological footprint of extraction, or the implications of ephemeral technology. Energy States: Solid, Liquid, G a s, Field

Thermodynamics of Coal Plus… Greenhouse gases Ravaged land Water contamination People displaced Extraction uses oil EROI = 9  27 ~ electric quality 1 BOE

Thermodynamics of Oil It depends … Pennsylvania? Saudi Arabia? Off-shore? Plus … Ravaged land/oceans Greenhouse gases Water contamination EROI = 10±

EROI = 4  12 ~ electric Thermodynamics of Nuclear Plus … Depletion Low grade ores → Greenhouse gases to process Waste guard for 10,000+ years … How do we value a 1,000 + year wasteland?

Thermodynamics of Tar Sands Plus… Greenhouse gases Ravaged land Water contamination Extraction uses natural gas EROI = 3 Why bother?!

Thermodynamics of Hydrogen Am I missing something?! EROI = -½

Thermodynamics of PV EROI: 5 years Life: 50 years Plus it can be bootstrapped EROI = 10  30 ~ electric

Thermodynamics of Thin Film PV EROI: 6 months Life: 20 years EROI = 40  120 ~electric

Thermodynamics of Wind EROI: 3 months Life: 20 years EROI = 80  240 ~ electric

Back to State & Quality (grade) … How does ERoEI analysis embrace these factors? Time / sustainability oil depletion: Inevitable degradation of quality. solar endurance: “Low” quality starts to make sense. Land use / ecological footprint Uranium tailings: Most dense becomes the most diffuse. Open pit coal mines: Density depends on measuring stick. It’s even an issue with Solar: PV on roofs ≠ PV in deserts. Security / Energy drain on future generations Nuclear Power  M.A.D.: ERoEI goes astronomically negative. Oil Wars: How much energy does it take to protect energy? Solar: Power satellites are weapons, not energy technology. Energy States: Solid, Liquid, G a s, Field

 Next Energy

Since oil is big in the transportation sector… … a short history lesson. How did transportation transform? from solid fuels (hay and then coal) to liquid fuels (oil) And where do we go from here?

Lest we forget … They did bring coal to Newcastle.

not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …

No joke! The original buggy whip protest

The Horseless Carriage

From GridLock to Gas Lines

Corn Cars & Bean Buses?

Back to solid fuels?

The All-New DonCar!

Electricity. Not exactly a new idea… Touch? … and it is ephemeral, like solar power. See? A match made in heaven. Lift?

The Electric Rail

Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)

Energy Revolution (Terawatt Challenge) 14.5 Terawatts 220 M BOE/day Terawatts 450 – 900 MBOE/day The Basis of Prosperity 20 st Century = Oil 21 st Century = [Renewables]

PV: The Growth Industry Oil declines at 4%/yr PV increases at 50%/yr

Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil? Yes! “Think TeraWatts”

Taking it one step further … You may think I’m pushing solar? Yes and no. The main point is … Prevailing sentiments cannot blind us from seeing the solutions with the best ERoEI… And we cannot be fixated on direct substitution of oil with liquid fuels, especially given the historic role of oil and the myriad advantages of electric transport.

ERoEI(field) >> ERoEI(solid, liquid, gas)

Fuels (solid/liquid/gas) will still have a place… ERoEI of biofuels may be too low for urban transport… (not to mention smog, congestion, hazard) Fuels will remain essential for: Airplanes Ships at sea -- with wind power augmentation (KiteTugs) Agriculture

Colin Campbell “Photovoltaics … will be economic … when there is serious production.”

Solar Industry Response? Goals 50% US electricity by 2025 ≠ 200 gW by 2030 = 10% How to get there? Federal government procurement $100 m/year R&D investment $250 m/year by 2010 “Enact, modify, establish, boost, support, increase, strengthen, grow…” Inadequate InconsistentInconsistent

Global Warming over the Past Millennium Very rapidly we have entered uncharted territory… Over the 20 th century, … energy consumption increased sixteenfold. Global warming from the fossil fuel greenhouse became a major, and increasingly dominant, factor in climate change. Slide from Marty Hoffert NYU (see Smalley)

The conclusions are simple: We are not doing enough fast enough. To spend our depleting energy capital resources effectively, we must first understand the Thermodynamics (ERoEI) of the alternatives. Then we must act quickly with resolve. Economics or Thermodynamics: Which will it be?

 Next Energy

If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result. Captains, cooks, drivers, repairment, and lock tenders will be left without means of livelihood, not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Boat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832.