Housing and Employment in the Washington MSA Current Trends and Forecasts January 30, 2014 Jeannette Chapman, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Lisa Sturtevant,

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Presentation transcript:

Housing and Employment in the Washington MSA Current Trends and Forecasts January 30, 2014 Jeannette Chapman, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Lisa Sturtevant, PhD, NHC Center for Housing Policy

Total Sales Washington MSA All Property Types Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Total Sales Volume (millions of $) Washington MSA All Property Types Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Median Sale Price Washington MSA All Housing Types Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Total Sales District of Columbia All Property Types Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Total Sales Suburban Maryland All Property Types Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Total Sales Northern Virginia All Property Types Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Average Sale Price Washington MSA Single-Family Detached Homes Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Average Sale Price Washington MSA Single-Family Attached Homes Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Average Sale Price Washington MSA Condo Homes Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Year-End Average New Condominium Prices Per SF Source: Delta Associates, DowntownDC BID, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Active Listings Washington MSA All Housing Types Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Stabilized Vacancy Rates Class A High-Rise Source: Delta Associates, DowntownDC BID, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Stabilized Vacancy Rates Class A High-Rise Source: Delta Associates, DowntownDC BID, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Effective Rental Rates per SF Class A High-Rise Source: Delta Associates, DowntownDC BID, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Effective Rental Rates per SF Class A High-Rise Source: Delta Associates, DowntownDC BID, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

The Washington Economy

Annual Job Change Washington MSA, (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Professional & Business Services Washington MSA, (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Change in Employment Washington MSA

Federal Government Washington MSA, (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Washington Metropolitan Area Job Change by Wage Category between 2008 to 2013 Sources: EMSI & GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area

Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (000s ) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change = 36,000 Source: BLS, IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis NOTE: The regional totals include Jefferson, WV.

Employment Change by Sub-state Area, 2012 – 2032 Net New Jobs % Change D.C.148, % Sub. MD 254, % No. VA 448, % REGION*857, % *Includes Jefferson, WV Note: Assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

Principal Sources of Job Growth in the Washington Area, (000s) Job % of Total Median Change Job Change Wage* Prof. & Sci. Svs/Mgt % $81,500 Admin & Waste Svs ,500 Construction ,700 Health Services ,500 Leisure/Hospitality ,300 Sub-Total % Overall Total $48,900 * in 2011$s Source: ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

Net New Jobs By Median Wage, 2012 – 2032 Includes Part Time Jobs Jobs In 000s Median Wage Source: ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

Housing Demand by Sub-state Area, 2012 – 2032 By Work Location By Current Commute Patterns D.C.105,20041,800 Sub. MD 160,800184,800 No. VA 279,000261,500 Outside Region 056,600 REGION*548,300548,300 *Includes Jefferson, WV. Source: ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

Demand by Housing Type and Sub-state Region, Total Single- Family Multi- Family D.C.105,20038,00067,200 Sub. MD 160,800106,60054,200 No. VA 279,000197,60081,400 REGION*548,300344,600203,700 *Includes Jefferson, WV Note: Assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

Comparison of Current Stock & Demand by Housing Type, Washington MSA Source: ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

Demand for New Units by Price Washington MSA, Owner Households Renter Households Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. $600k+ 13% <$200k 16%

Demand for New Units by Price District of Columbia, Owner Households Renter Households Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. $600k+ 8% <$200k 14%

Demand for New Units by Price Suburban Maryland, Owner Households Renter Households Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. $600k+ 11% <$200k 22%

Demand for New Units by Price Northern Virginia, Owner Households Renter Households Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. $600k+ 16% <$200k 14%

Local jurisdictions are planning for an insufficient amount of housing to accommodate future workers. More housing is needed closer to jobs, in existing and growing regional employment centers. There is a need for more multi-family housing and smaller, more affordable owner and renter homes in the region. A lack of a sufficient supply of housing contributes to worsening traffic and quality of life and threatens our region’s economic vitality. Housing Policy Issues

Questions? Jeannette Chapman GMU Center for Regional Analysis Lisa Sturtevant, PhD NHC Center for Housing Policy ext. 234