whatIf? Modelling Tools Providing quantitative decision support tools and services to address complex organizational and societal issues. Simulation modelling Case study: Victoria WAS Scenarios Discussion Questions throughout please!

whatIf? Modelling Tools What is Simulation Modelling and why use it? Try something out ahead of time… To learn the impact of various actions To play out different scenarios To gain understanding and insight …make better plans and decisions.

whatIf? Modelling Tools whatIf? Physical Economy Modelling Approach Whole system modelling Process as fundamental concept Physical substrate Behaviour/Control Stocks and Flows Coherence (user imputed causality)

whatIf? Modelling Tools Model Builder modelling suite

whatIf? Modelling Tools Model Building Overview design model coding calibration and data assembly scenario building Interactive process for designing and building models Build a customized model specific to analytical needs Technology transfer may occur throughout

whatIf? Modelling Tools whatIf? Benefits Transparency Corporate Memory Scenario Management

whatIf? Modelling Tools We have linked physical whole-economy models Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF)  all economy  energy end-use (residential, industrial…)  materials flows Victorian Regional Stocks and Flows Framework (VRSFF)  demography  land-use (~12 types, built and non-built by ~2,600 areas)  electricity generation Water Accounting System (WAS)  water requirements  water provision  energy for water system

whatIf? Modelling Tools Demographics Land-use Electricity production Water resources and use  a complete water account Drivers and Interactions

whatIf? Modelling Tools Water Account System compares ‘demand’ & ‘supply’ ‘Flow’ of physical implications  integrates use and availability  inputs taken from ASFF and VRSFF

whatIf? Modelling Tools Geographic Context Victoria is in southern Australia Melbourne is the capital city of ~4 million people 3 key dams (each >10 6 Gl)  Dartmouth (NE)  Eildon (N)  Thomson (SE) supplies most of Melbourne Murray-Darling Basin and Victoria overlap

whatIf? Modelling Tools Victorian historical data sources Water  DWRV Water Resource Handbook  BRS 1985 Review  ABS Water Accounts ( , 2001, 2005)  DSE State Water Report 2003  SoE 1988  MDBC reports – flows, dam levels  BoM rainfall; Melbourne Water; NLWRA catchment flows  Energy intensity of water services; Energy used Demography  Census ; education statistics; health statistics Land-use  Zoning Plan  historical maps of Melbourne  Census (2001) Energy  ESAA generation/production capacity ~  ABS Energy Accounts  specific energy consumption data  Yallourn & Loy Yang data & Electricity Commission data ~

whatIf? Modelling Tools Water Account System - Description “Design Approach” [Gault et al, Futures, 1987]  “supply v demand” structure  traceable physical relationships (coordination)

whatIf? Modelling Tools Water Account System - Requirements water requirements  by ~14 sectors  in 79 Local Government Areas

whatIf? Modelling Tools Water Account System - Availability water availability  in 29 major river basins  across 14 land use types  into surface, aquifers, evapo-transpiration

whatIf? Modelling Tools Water Account System - Disposition water puts and takes  into/from rivers, dams, aquifers  centralised or self-extracted  desalination option  quality: unpolluted, storm-, grey-, black-water  treatment to primary, secondary, tertiary levels  transfers between the 29 river basins

whatIf? Modelling Tools Water Account System – Dam/River Balance water storage stock and river flows  all additions and extractions brought together  diversions from river to dam  release of storage down river  river network included

whatIf? Modelling Tools Water Account System – Energy Required energy for water services  potable treatment & pumping  treatment & pumping for recycling (sewage, other discharges, stormwater)  local re-use  desalination  inter-region transfers

whatIf? Modelling Tools Key common assumptions population growth  4.9 million by 2050  Victoria in Future climate change  “medium” scenario = 1.5 C change (rel to 1990) by 2050  CSIRO intensity of water use  marginal increase response to climate change irrigated agriculture, and residential outdoor  DSE electricity consumption / generation  growth at 2% pa per capita  unchanged technology

whatIf? Modelling Tools Other key scenario assumptions water end-use  no change(2a, 2b)  solar HWS, efficient shower, wash machine(1a, 1b, 2c, 2d) in 80% new dwellings, 20% existing dwellings water services  conventional catchment(1a, 2a, 2c)  desalination (to meet new demand)(2b, 2d)  alternative(1b) rainwater tanks –in 20% dwellings –1 kL re-use of industrial wastewater –20% of flow re-use of wastewater at central treatment –20% of flow