The Netherlands and IIASA Highlights ( ) May 2015

CONTENTS 1.Summary 2.National Member Organization 3.Some Leading Dutch Personalities Associated with IIASA 4.Research Partners 5.Research Collaborations: Selected Highlights 6.Capacity Building 7.Further Information

SUMMARY ( ) National Member Organization Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) Membership start date 1977 Research partners 45 organizations in the Netherlands Areas of research collaborations Research collaborations to tackle climate change Advancing energy and integrated assessment modeling in the Netherlands Global Energy Assessment and the Netherlands Projecting demographic change in the Netherlands Increasing flood resilience Smarter ways to manage the agricultural and forestry sectors Analyzing global and European water challenges The future of fisheries and other evolutionary studies Capacity building 21 doctoral students from the Netherlands have participated in IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program and its new Southern African version Publication output 341 publications have resulted from IIASA-Dutch collaborations

NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATION The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) Professor Dr Jos J Engelen, Chairman of NWO, is the IIASA Council Member for the Netherlands Dr Josef Stuefer, Senior Policy Advisor, Earth & Life Sciences/Policy Development, at NWO is the NMO Secretary for the Netherlands

SOME LEADING PERSONALITIES IN THE NETHERLANDS AND ASSOCIATED WITH IIASA Tjalling Koopmans Peter Nijkamp Leen Hordijk Pavel Kabat Paul Crutzen Wim C Turkenburg

RESEARCH PARTNERS 45 institutions in the Netherlands, including: Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) KWR Watercycle Research Institute Leiden University National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) Royal Dutch Shell University of Groningen Utrecht University VU University Amsterdam Wageningen University

RESEARCH COLLABORATIONS Selected Highlights: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Global Energy Assessment and the Netherlands Projecting changing population in the Netherlands European flood risk could double by 2050 Climate change, energy & water nexus Better forest management could reduce forest fire danger in Europe Identifying climate impact hotspots on crop yields, water availability, ecosystems, and health Improved fishing policies Research into policy

Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium includes IIASA & Dutch partners: GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS MESSAGE (IIASA) AIM (NIES) GCAM (PNNL) IMAGE (PBL) Source: van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Weyant, J. (eds) (2011). Special Issue: The Representative Concentration Pathways in Climatic Change. Climatic Change, 109(1-2).

GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT AND THE NETHERLANDS 9 Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA : GEA defines a new global energy policy agenda—one that transforms the way society thinks about, uses, and delivers energy. Significant Dutch contribution: –5 Convening Lead Authors –15 Lead Authors –4 Contributors & 13 Reviewers One notable outcome: GEA guides targets of UN Secretary-General’s Sustainable Energy For All Initiative

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDS To update with Finland

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDS To update with Finland

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDS CONVENTIONAL DEVELOPMENT

Decrease in thermoelectric power generating capacity due to lack of cooling-water Source: van Vliet MTH, Yearsley JR, Ludwig F, Vögele S, Lettenmaier DP & Kabat P (2012). Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change. Nature Climate Change. CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY & WATER NEXUS

EUROPEAN FLOOD RISK COULD DOUBLE BY 2050 Jongman, B, S Hochrainer-Stigler, et. al. (2014). Increasing stress on disaster risk finance due to large floods. Nature Climate Change (letter). doi: /nclimate2124

BETTER FOREST MANAGEMENT COULD REDUCE FOREST FIRE DANGER IN EUROPE Nikolay Khabarov, Andrey Krasovskii, Michael Obersteiner, Rob Swart, Alessandro Dosio, Jesús San-Miguel-Ayanz, Tracy Durrant, Andrea Camia, Mirco Migliavacca Forest fires and adaptation options in Europe. Regional Environmental Change. September Doi: /s

IDENTIFYING CLIMATE IMPACT HOTSPOTS ON CROP YIELDS, WATER AVAILABILITY, ECOSYSTEMS, AND HEALTH Source: Piontek, F., Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M, et al. (2013): Multisectoral climate impacts in a warming world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

IMPROVED FISHING POLICIES Northern Cod stock collapsed in 1992 and has not recovered sinceNorthern Cod stock collapsed in 1992 and has not recovered since Heavy exploitation favors earlier maturation at smaller sizeHeavy exploitation favors earlier maturation at smaller size We have documented a 15% drop in age at maturation and a 30% drop in size at maturationWe have documented a 15% drop in age at maturation and a 30% drop in size at maturation Such evolutionary impacts of fishing are very slow and difficult to reverseSuch evolutionary impacts of fishing are very slow and difficult to reverse New tool: Evolutionary Impact Assessments (Science 318:1247, Science 320:48)New tool: Evolutionary Impact Assessments (Science 318:1247, Science 320:48) Moratorium Early warning Size at 50% maturation probability at age 5 (cm) Nature 428:932

RESEARCH INTO POLICY (Example) Dec 2013: European Commission proposed a new package of measures to reduce air pollution. Poor air quality is the number one environmental cause of premature death in the European Union. By 2030, the package will: 21 Avoid an extra 58,000 premature deaths Protect an extra 123,000 km2 of ecosystems from nitrogen pollution (more than half the area of Romania) Save km2 forests from acidification by the year IIASA’s GAINS model guided European policymakers at every step of this process.

CAPACITY BUILDING 20 doctoral students studying in the Netherlands have won places on IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program since 2008.

Southern-African Young Scientist Summer Program: (SA-YSSP) Johanna Schild (SA-YSSP ‘13/14 & VU University Amsterdam) quantified water flow regulation within a semi-arid catchment and investigated the impact of implementing rainwater harvesting for more optimal water flow regulation. CAPACITY BUILDING

FURTHER INFORMATION IIASA Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO)