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Ozone: ppm by ppm by – ppm by ? GHG: 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 PM2.5: 98 th percentile greater than 35 ug/m 3 by 2014 Relevant Standards

Ozone Strategy Focused on NOx Emissions NOx Reduced 80% from 2010 Levels by 2023 NOx Reduced 90% from 2010 Levels by 2032 GHG Reduced 85% from 2010 levels by 2050 Reductions Required to Meet Standards

Additional Reductions Necessary to Meet Ozone Standards Source: Draft Vision for Clean Air: A Framework for Air Quality and Climate Planning, June 27, 2012

Passenger Transportation Light- and Medium-Duty Vehicles Aircraft Passenger Locomotives Freight Movement Heavy-Duty Trucks Freight Locomotives Cargo Handling Equipment Commercial Harbor Craft Commercial Ocean-Going Vessels Off-Road Vehicles and Equipment Construction Vehicles Industrial Equipment Targeted Sources Source: Draft Vision for Clean Air: A Framework for Air Quality and Climate Planning, June 27, 2012

California population expected to grow from 35 million to 60 million by 2050 While rate of growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) will slow, overall growth in VMT will continue Truck VMT expected to grow 2.5% per year Commercial shipping expected to grow at 5.5% per year Role of Population Growth

Role of Growth in Goods Movement San Pedro Bay Ports Forecasts (TEUs) forecast Source: Southern California Association of Governments, October 17, 2012

By 2040, all passenger vehicles sold in California are zero-emissions vehicles. By 2050, for trucks, the average fuel economy doubles and NOx emission standards are 80 percent below the current cleanest standards. Nearly all future locomotives operating statewide are zero-emission or near-zero emission such as hybrid-electric. Future jet engines are 75 percent cleaner in terms of NOx emissions and all burn renewable jet fuel. By 2050, 40 percent of new commercial ships are fueled by liquefied natural gas (LNG) or are natural gas-conventional fueled hybrids. By 2050, all liquid fuels are derived from renewable feedstocks. The electric grid capacity grows to meet new demands, yet is substantially cleaner with heavy reliance on either renewables or carbon capture and storage (CCS). Scenario Under Which Standards Might Be Achieved Source: Southern California Association of Governments, October 17, 2012

Required Changes to Fuel Supply Source: Draft Vision for Clean Air: A Framework for Air Quality and Climate Planning, June 27, 2012

Required Changes to Fuel Supply Source: Draft Vision for Clean Air: A Framework for Air Quality and Climate Planning, June 27, 2012

Required Changes to Electricity Supply Source: Draft Vision for Clean Air: A Framework for Air Quality and Climate Planning, June 27, 2012

Would it work? Source: Draft Vision for Clean Air: A Framework for Air Quality and Climate Planning, June 27, 2012