Climate Change and Planning of Cities: f indings from AR4 IPCC Prof Ogunlade R Davidson Co-Chair, IPCC Working Group III University of Sierra Leone Sustainable Cities Summit London, England 22 November, 2007

Contents of Lecture About IPCC Introduction Science of Climate Change Adaptation to Climate Change Mitigation strategies Conclusions

About the IPCC Founded in 1988 by UNEP and WMO for providing the world policy community with updated information on climate change It assess research findings and undertake limited methodological work, but do not make recommendations Assessment is based only peer-reviewed literature and limited grey literature under specific conditions Authors are from academic, industrial and NGO experts and fall into three categories –Convening Lead Author (CLA) –Lead Author (LA) –Contributing Author (CA) Reviews by independent Experts and Governments Policy relevant, but NOT policy prescriptive Full report and technical summary: reviwed by experts and accepted by governments Summary for policymakers: government approval

Working Group III Mitigation Netherland/Sierra Leone WGIII co-chairs Working Group I Science USA/China WGI co-chairs Working Group II Impacts and adaptation UK/Argentina WGII co-chairs Task force on National GHG Inventories Japan/Brazil NGGIP co-chairs Over 3000 Experts, Authors, Contributors, Reviewers Technical Support Unit USA Technical Support Unit UK Technical Support Unit Netherlands Technical Support Unit Japan IPCC Bureau IPCC chair IPCC Secretariat WMO/UNEP

IPCC First Assessment Report IPCC Fourth Assessment Report IPCC Third Assessment Report IPCC Second Assessment Report Climate +Impacts EfficiencyEquity Efficiency EfficiencyEfficiency Sustainability+DevelopmentSustainability+Development EquityEquity (Efficiency) (Equity) (Sustainability +Development) (Sustainable Development) (Sustainable Development) Continuing Focus New Focus Emerging Focus The Evolution of Ideas within the IPCC

The Climate Change is more a developmental than environmental Problem Carbon dioxide and other GHGs from fossil fuel combustion started in 1800s to present Concentration of GHGs causing warming of the earth Significant increase in GHG emissions globally

Observations: All major GHG concentrations has increased since Pre-industrial CO2 grew from 280 ppm in 1750 to 379 ppm in 2005 Methane grew from 715 ppb in 1750 to 1774 ppb 2005 N20 grew from 270 ppb in 1750 to 319 ppb in 2005

OBSERVATION ON ATTRIBUTION

Projected warming in the 21st century is expected to be greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes, and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic ocean

Impacts will vary by extent of adaptation, rate of temperature change, and socio-economic development pathway

Carbon dioxide is the largest contributor

Transport Sector offer major opportunities As economic activities grow in cities so are their GHG emissions Motorisation dominates transport activity that create other problems – congestion and air- pollution Transport accounts for 23% of GHG emissions and have increased by 27% since 1990 This sector has the highest growth

Projected GHG and Mitigation Potential Current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices (SRES), could increase between 25-90% between 2000 and 2030 Mitigation potential based on both bottom-up and top-down studies could offset the expected GHG emissions growth All sectors could contribute though their potential differ in quantity and sectors Estimates do not include non-technical options such lifestyle changes

Energy Supply Mitigation Technologies NOW 2030

Transport Mitigation Technologies NOW2030

Commercial mitigation technologies in the building sector NOW 2030

Changes in lifestyle and behaviour patterns can contribute to climate change mitigation Changes in occupant behaviour, cultural patterns and consumer choice in buildings. Reduction of car usage and efficient driving style, in relation to urban planning and availability of public transport Behaviour of staff in industrial organizations in light of reward systems

Public Policies will be crucial Returning global energy-related CO2 emissions to 2005 levels by 2030 would require a large shift in the pattern of investment Many barriers for implementing low-cost mitigation measures An effective carbon-price signal could realise significant mitigation potential in all sectors, hence policies are essential to create a carbon price (direct or indirect) The widespread diffusion of low-carbon technologies may take many decades, even if early investments in these technologies are made attractive. It is often more cost-effective to invest in end-use energy efficiency improvement than in increasing energy supply

Climate Policy alone will not solve the climate change problem Macro-economic policy: taxes, subsidies, other fiscal policies, structural adjustment Trade policy: “ embodied carbon”, removing barriers for low-carbon products, domestic energy sources Energy security policy : efficient energy use, domestic energy sources (low-high carbon) Access to modern energy: bio-energy, poverty tariffs Air quality policy: clean fuel Bank lending policies : lending for efficiency/ renewable energy, avoid lock-in into old technologies in developing countries Insurance policy: Differentiated premiums, liability insurance exclusion, improved conditions for green products

Non-climate policies can influence GHG emissions as much as specific climate policies SectorsNon-climate policies -- Candidates for integrating climate concerns Possible influence (% of global emissions) Macro-economyTaxes, subsidies, other fiscal policiesAll GHG emissions (100 %) ForestryForest protection, sustainable managementGHGs deforestation (7%) ElectricityRenewable energy, demand management, decreasing losses transport,/distribution Electricity sector emissions (20 %) Oil-importsDiversification energy sources/decrease intensity -> enhance energy security GHGs from oil product imports (20 %) Insurance buildings, infrastructure Differentiated premiums, liability conditions, improved conditions green products GHG emissions buildings, transport (20 %) Bank lendingStrategy/policy, lending projects accounting for options emission limitations Notably development projects (25%) Rural energyPolicies promoting LPG, kerosene and electricity for cooking Extra emissions over biomass (<2 %)

Lower stabilisation level require global emissions to go down early Lower stabilization levels (550 ppm CO2-eq or lower) require major policies and government support: –RD&D efforts –Investments in new technologies –Tax credits –Standard setting –Technology development and transfer –Market creation An effective carbon-price signal could realize significant mitigation potential

Development path as important as specific climate mitigation policies Development path with HIGH base emissions Development path with LOW emissions Climate policy can have Positive or negative effects Non-climate policies can influence GHG emissions

Conclusions Global warming is equivocal and early action by governments are needed to reduce serious climate risks Large number of technologies are available now and in The near future to offset the GHG emissions Linking sustainable development aspirations with climate policies provide governments the opportunity to avert the possible climate threats

Thank you for your attention Further Information Contact University of Sierra Leone Freetown, Sierra Leone. Tel. No Fax. No