 Failure Ethnic or civil war in a current period  Risk of failure Ethnic or civil violence in the current or previous two years; or ethnic or civil war in the previous four years (but not the current years) Centre of Systemic Peace

A fragile state is… ‘bereaved of political commitment and with an insufficient capacity to develop pro-poor policies’ ‘a state with weak capacity to carry out the basic state functions of governing a population and its territory and that lacks the ability or political will to develop mutually constructive and reinforcing relations with society’ OECD

Capacity and will  States with relatively good performance  Weak states but willing in providing core services and basic security  Corrupt and repressive states  States unwilling in providing core services and basic security

Level of insecurity  Sites of ongoing U.S combat and reconstruction efforts  Active or potential WMD proliferators  Past or present safe havens for terrorism  Anchors for regional instability  Bases of narcotic trafficking and crime  Potential sources of uncontrolled migration  Critical energy suppliers  Location for epidemic disease  Setting for recent atrocities and humanitarian crisis

Violence index  Countries newly emerged from a conflict with another state  States involved in war or conflict  States that are likely to encounter due to growing polarization of domestic politics State performance  Under – consolidated states  Over – extended states

Reaction to collapse  States in which the privatization of state assets and prerogatives of state rule have become extreme, and in which there are deepening challenges to that rule from former associates as well as from liberation fronts  States with a marked historical mismatch between the nature and orientation of states institutions and socio-political processes and divisions within the society concerned  States in which there are deepening conflicts over the control of strategic resources – diamonds, oil, timber etc. – involving rebel groups and privatized armies, making state institutions irrelevant  States undergoing a major struggle over power and over the political and cultural orientation and organization of society  State in which secession attempt get out of hand, potentially affecting the continuity of the state system as a whole  Fragile states suddenlty facing deteriorating economic conditions which seriously affect the livelihood of a large majority of the population, leading to a breakdown of state institutions  States in which institutional failures to provide basic security in one or more respects (physical security, health, nutrition) have gone beyond a point of repair, for whatever specific reasons, thus invoking a state bankruptcy of sorts.

State fragility Weak political institutions Insecurity Illegitimacy

Political institutions  Formal (National Police)  Informal (Customary Legal Courts)  State (Parliaments)  Non-state institutions (NGOs)

Three generation of human rights Karel Vasak 1 st Generation – political and civil rights 2 nd Generation – social and economic rights 3 rd Generation – solidarity rights

Abuse of power – Illegitimate use of power People Leadership Obedience Domination Legitimate use of power People Leadership Obedience under the limits provided by the Constitution Persuasiveness achieved by argumentation/constraint based on force Hanna Arendt

YEMENSUDAN IDPs Refugees

Who Did whatTo whom

SYRIA A violent minority may dominate a passive majority Cases of human rights abuses: Constitutional articles violated WHODID WHATTO WHOM Juristic institutions Political imprisonment Human rights defenders Political activists Incommunicado detentions Human rights defenders Unfair trials Arbitrary detentions Death sentences (incl. executed)Detainees Identity-based violenceKurds Armed forces Identity based violenceKurds Unlawful killings Detainees Civilians Children Incommunicado detentionsJournalists

YEMEN A military branch provides water, electricity and gas to Jaar city Cases of human rights abuses: 131 Seven Constitutional articles violated WHODID WHATTO WHOM Juristic institutions Death sentences (incl. executed) Detainees Arbitrary detentions Journalists Human rights defenders Incommunicado detentionsProtesters Armed forces Unlawful killings Civilians Protesters Limitation of freedom of expressionJournalists Arbitrary detentionsHuman rights defenders Incommunicado detentionsAsylum-seekers

SUDAN D eveloped group paranoia Cases of human rights abuses: Constitutional articles violated WHODID WHATTO WHOM Government forces Arbitrary detentionsHuman rights defenders Gender-based violenceWomen AbductionsCivilians Unlawful killings Rebel groups Unlawful killingsCivilians Identity-based violenceEthnic groups Armed forces Arbitrary detentions IDPs Civilians Human rights defenders Protesters Opposition members TortureProtesters Unlawful killingsCivilians Limitation of freedom of expressionJournalists Gender-based violenceWomen Incommunicado detentionsJournalists

Conclusions Consequences: relegating a government from a given state to the lowest ranking reducing the appeal to foreign investors damaging relations with donors increasing social discontent decreasing human development