Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. Global Insight’s Sector Risk Analysis Which are the Winners and Losers? December 2007  About Global Insight’s Sector Risk Analysis  One Section for each of the U.S., Eurozone, and U.K.  Global Insight’s Corporate Bankruptcy Forecast  Sample View of Sector Risks ( )  Contact Information

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 2 About Global Insight’s Sector Risk Analysis One Section for Each of the U.S., Eurozone, and UK Bankruptcy Forecast and Sample of Sector Risk Ratings Contact Information

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 3 Introducing World Industry Service Sector Risk Ratings (SRR) All the forecasts and analyses provided in this presentation were produced using the World Industry Service’s Sector Risk Ratings. Sector Risk Ratings allow you to:  Quantify the Risk/Return Profile of Sector-based Portfolios  Forecast Changes in the Credit Quality Profile of Industries Globally  Rank Sectors with Best and Worst Credit Profiles, Show Expected Direction of Migration in Sector Credit Quality  Inform Credit Risk Analysis and Sector Rotation Strategy

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 4  Comparative metrics for each sector and country, history and forecast  Globally consistent sector benchmarks of credit and operating risks  Ratings are created from structural and cyclical indicators drawn from standard corporate credit risk frameworks  User-friendly tool for risk management and stress testing  Scientific, transparent construct, and long track record Using standard credit risk methodologies as applied to industries, the Sector Risk Ratings provide globally consistent, forward-looking benchmarks of credit quality for each sector and country. The service includes: Sector-based Credit and Operating Risks Top-down Sector Benchmarks to Complement Traditional Bottom-up Analysis A composite rating from lowest (1) to highest (10) is created for each sector, built up from 40 separate risk factors

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 5  Growth Risk  Growth in real revenue  Growth in sales  Volatility, turning points  Profitability Risk  Pricing strength  Operating profitability  Free cash flow  Return on invested capital  Fixed-asset turnover  Degree of operating leverage  Supply Risk  Capital intensity  Capacity overhang  Depreciation cost of sales  Market Structure Risk  Dependence on suppliers, customers  Exposure to energy, labor  Export reliance, import competition  Cost of goods sold  Barriers to entry and exit  Technology and substitution  Economic & Country Risk  Sector cyclicality  Sector interest rate sensitivity  Country-level sovereign risks (From Global Insight’s Global Risk Service): – Exchange rate – Equity markets – Regulation policy – Tax policy Composite Risk Ratings Are Created from 40 Individual Risk Factors that Reflect and Predict Changes in Credit Quality Sector risk factors are derived from the standard credit risk framework used in corporate lending and fixed income portfolios Sector risk factors show the effect of industry structure, stage in lifecycle, and the sovereign/ macroeconomic environment on industry risk profiles

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 6 Which Sectors Have High Risk Profiles? Which Sectors Are Improving or Deteriorating?  Monitor Changes in Sector Risk Profiles  “Drill down” to the 40 individual sub-factors to see the drivers for changing risk profiles  Compare sector risk factors on a global and country basis, compare risks across sectors  Identify correlated industries that improve or deteriorate together  Rigorous framework for evaluating diversification and strategy Sector Risk Ratings Help Evaluate and Anticipate Changes in Credit Profiles of Industries and Portfolios

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 7 Clients Use Sector Risk Ratings to Help Evaluate and Anticipate Changes in the Credit Quality of Industries and Portfolios  Quantify the risk profile of key sectors in a loan or bond portfolio  Is portfolio risk high or low? Is it improving or deterioration?  Identify groups of correlated industries that improve/deteriorate together  Use rigorous framework for evaluating diversification and strategy  Monitor and anticipate changes in sector credit quality  Monitor composite ratings, flag sectors to “drill down” for deeper investigation – Which risk factors are driving the change? – What is the geographical composition of the sector change?  Stress test the portfolio through simulation and “what-if” scenarios  Use SRR as sector benchmark for corporate credit research  Compare company risk prospects to that of its own sector peer group  Analyze market prospects for key client markets into which it sells product  Forecast changes in bankruptcies, defaults, loan loss requirements  For individual sectors as well as for entire portfolio

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 8 Sample of Sector Risk Ratings for Composites in U.S. and the Eurozone (Risk Ratings from Lowest (1) to Highest (10) Risk) Sector Risk Ratings for the “All Corporate” Sector, Manufacturing, Finance, & Business Services United StatesEurozone

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 9 Forecast of Migration in Credit Quality Across Sectors (United States, Eurozone, and United Kingdom) *Annualized % Change in Risk RatingU.S. EurozoneU.K All Corporate Sector Goods Sectors (ISIC 1-3) Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing (ISIC 1) Mining and Quarrying (ISIC 2) Manufacturing (ISIC 3) Manufacturing Non-Durable Goods (ISIC 31, 32, 34, 35) Manufacturing Durable Goods (ISIC 33, ) Basic & Fabricated Metals (ISIC 37 & 381) Electronics (ISIC 3825, 3832 & 385) Autos & Aircraft (ISIC 3843 & 3845) Construction (ISIC 5) Wholesale & Retail, Restaurants & Hotels (ISIC 6) Transport, Storage & Communications (ISIC 7) Finance, Insurance, Bus. Services, Real Estate (ISIC 8) Community, Social & Personal Services (ISIC 9) *An increase indicates a rise in risk

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 10 About Global Insight’s Sector Risk Analysis Highlights for United States Bankruptcy Forecast and Sample of Sector Risk Ratings Contact Information

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 11 Global Insight Expects U.S. Corporate Bankruptcies to Rise 13% in 2008 (Forecast as of December 2007) ForecastHistorical Data Source: World Industry Service; The American Bankruptcy Institute “Current Year” and “Year Ahead” Correlation Coefficient between WIS Composite Non-Financial Sector Risk Ratings and Corporate Bankruptcies in U.S., Sector Risk Ratings Forecast “Year-Ahead” Number of U.S. Corporate Bankruptcies

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 12 Factors Driving Changes in Risk Ratings for U.S. Time-Trends of Annualized % Change in Risk Rating (based on moving 2-year change)  I m p or o v e W o r s e n 

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 13 Growth Risk Factor in Select Sectors in United States  Growth Risk has risen since 2006, expected to increase in 2008 and stabilize in 2009  Growth Prospects for Electronics are weak due to slowing consumer spending  Industrial Chemicals’ Growth risk is tied with prospects of Agriculture and Construction  Real Estate Growth Risk will remain weak through 2008 WIS Sector Risk Rating, (1) for lowest - (10) for highest

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 14 Risks to Pricing Strength Are Rising in Select Sectors in U.S.  The combination of surging oil prices and a decelerating economic activity leads to worsening pricing power  Energy-intensive industries (Metals, Chemicals, etc.), and industries that import from abroad, will get negatively impacted by soaring input costs  A weaker dollar will ease this risk for export- oriented sectors WIS Sector Risk Rating, (1) for lowest - (10) for highest

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 15 U.S. Industry - Anticipated Changes in Credit Profiles Red FlagPotential RecoveryYellow Flag Summary of Composite Sector Risk Ratings for United States: Current Ratings Level and Anticipated Change in the Ratings in 2008

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 16 Which High Risk Sectors will Deteriorate/Improve in U.S. Sector Annual percent change in Risk Rate ( ) Energy Mining14.3% Metal & Wood Working Machinery 10.0% Agricultural Machinery3.6% Railroad Equipment1.8% Leather1.6% Sector Annual percent change in Risk Rate ( ) Engines & Turbines-15.4% Non-Energy Mining-8.7% Textiles-4.5% Motorcycles & Bicycles-3.0% Photographic & Optical Goods -1.3% High Risk but ImprovingHigh Risk and Worsening

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 17 About Global Insight’s Sector Risk Analysis Highlights for the Eurozone Bankruptcy Forecast and Sample of Sector Risk Ratings Contact Information

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 18 Global Insight Expects Eurozone Corporate Bankruptcies to Rise 5% in 2008 (Forecast as of December 2007) ForecastHistorical Data Source: World Industry Service; National Statistics Sector Risk Ratings Forecast “Year-Ahead” Number of Corporate Bankruptcies “Current Year” and “Year Ahead” Correlation Coefficient between WIS Composite Non-Financial Sector Risk Ratings and Corporate Bankruptcies in the Eurozone,

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 19 Factors Driving Changes in Risk Ratings for the Eurozone Time-trends of Annualized % Change in Risk Rating (based on moving 2-year change)  I m p or o v e W o r s e n 

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 20 Risks Are Rising from Slowing Sales Growth in Select Sectors in the Eurozone  Agriculture and Construction sales are forecast to see slower sales growth than in the recent past  Metals and Industrial Chemicals, in turn, see less growth from ties to intermediate demand  Forecast Growth Risk has risen since 2006, expected to stabilize but remain high in the near- term WIS Sector Risk Rating, (1) for lowest - (10) for highest

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 21  The combination of surging oil prices and a decelerating economic will increase the Pricing Strength Risks  The ability of energy- intensive industries (Metals, Chemicals, etc.) to pass through soaring input costs is somewhat limited  A strong euro will help to mitigate this risk for importing industries WIS Sector Risk Rating, (1) for lowest - (10) for highest Risks to Pricing Strength Are Rising in Select Sectors in the Eurozone

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 22 Red FlagPotential RecoveryYellow Flag Summary of Composite Sector Risk Ratings for the Eurozone: Current Ratings Level and Anticipated Change in the Ratings in 2008 Eurozone Industry - Anticipated Changes in Credit Profiles

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 23 Which High Risk Sectors will Deteriorate/Improve in Eurozone Sector Annual percent change in Risk Rate ( ) Agriculture 11.7% Iron & Steel 10.2% Scientific Equipment 8.3% Motorcycles & Bicycles 6.8% Textiles 4.5% Sector Annual percent change in Risk Rate ( ) Computers -15.6% Communication Equipment -5.7% Leather -3.3% Electrical Appliances -1.7% Energy Mining -1.4% High Risk but ImprovingHigh Risk and Worsening

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 24 About Global Insight’s Sector Risk Analysis Highlights for the United Kingdom Bankruptcy Forecast and Sample of Sector Risk Ratings Contact Information

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 25 Global Insight Expects U.K. Corporate Bankruptcies to Rise 3% in 2007 (Forecast as of November 2007) ForecastHistorical Data Source: World Industry Service; National Statistics “Current Year” and “Year Ahead” Correlation Coefficient between WIS Composite Non-Financial Sector Risk Ratings and Corporate Bankruptcies in UK, Sector Risk Ratings Forecast “Year-Ahead” Number of Corporate Bankruptcies

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 26 Factors Driving Changes in Risk Ratings for U.K. Time-trends of Annualized % Change in Risk Rating (based on moving 2-year change)  I m p or o v e W o r s e n 

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 27 Risk of Sales Growth Slowing is Increasing in Select Sectors in the U.K.  Finance and Business services growth prospects are hit by the current credit squeeze  Agriculture and Construction sales forecast growth is in line with a slowdown of consumer spending  Metals and Industrial chemicals, in turn, see less growth prospects in intermediate demand  Forecast Growth Risk has risen since 2006, expected to stabilize but remain high in the near term WIS Sector Risk Rating, (1) for lowest - (10) for highest

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 28 Risk of Free Cash Flow Growth is Rising in Select Sectors in the United Kingdom  The combination of surging oil prices and a decelerating economic activity fuels Free Cash Flow Growth Risk  The ability of Energy- intensive industries (Metals, Chemicals, etc.) to pass through soaring input costs is indeed not guaranteed  A strong Sterling can help to mitigate this risk, but for export- dependent sectors such as Chemicals it is also a threat for sales growth WIS Sector Risk Rating, (1) for lowest - (10) for highest

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 29 Red FlagPotential RecoveryYellow Flag Summary of Composite Sector Risk Ratings for United Kingdom: Current Ratings Level and Anticipated Change in the Ratings in 2008 U.K. Industry - Anticipated Changes in Credit Profiles

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 30 Which High-risk Sectors will Deteriorate/Improve in U.K. Sector Annual percent change in Risk Rate ( ) Textiles 8.5% Paper 7.0% Beverages 5.1% Clothing 5.1% Retail (non Auto) 5.0% Sector Annual percent change in Risk Rate ( ) Drugs -19.4% Railroad Equipment -9.3% Communication Equipment. -5.4% Computers -4.5% Energy Mining -1.4% High Risk but ImprovingHigh Risk and Worsening

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 31 About Global Insight’s Sector Risk Analysis Global Insight’s Bankruptcy Forecast Sample Views ( ) Contact Information

Copyright ® 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 32 Please Contact Us for a Personal Demonstration! More Information?  Mark Killion, CFA Managing Director, World Industry Service  Natasha Muravytska Economist, World Industry Service  Alain Faucher Economist, World Industry Service For More Information: