Case Study Outline Introduction (2) – Fuel Cell Technology (1) – Infrastructure (1.5) Global warming, Oil supply safety, Political issues, pollution,… Fuel-Cell Technology – The US Government and the Hydrogen Economy (1.5) – European Union and Japanese Efforts (0.5) Focus of Government Efforts (1.5) – Production – Delivery – Storage – Conversion – Application – Education and Outreach – Codes and Standards Constituents (1) – Oil companies – Oil-producing nations – Automobile manufacturers Future (0.5) What has been done since then? What could have been done differently? Red=Thien Green=Nutty Blue=Allen Black=Ibrahim

European Union and Japanese Efforts In EU and Japan government agencies were funding both fuel-cell basic science and enabling infrastructure technology – Japanese efforts were considered to be ahead of US and EU – Compared to US and Japan; EU efforts were more focused on demonstration and pilot projects In 2004, there was not significant difference across US, Japan and EU in supporting hydrogen based transportation. Europeans had greater incentive to adopt hydrogen based transportation technologies. Japan

Focus of Government Efforts In 2002, National Hydrogen Energy Roadmap proposed seven critical barriers to the successful development of hydrogen economy. – Production – Delivery – Storage – Conversion – Applications – Education and Outreach – Codes and Standards Balkanized approach Globally coordinated approach

Constituents Apart from customers there are numerous groups that have effect on development of hydrogen based economy – Oil companies – Oil-producing nations – Automobile manufacturers

Future Government plan to establish a hydrogen economy US government funding of $1.7 billion over the next 5 years (from 2002) Could the government afford it? Could it afford not to make it?

What is it like today? (1) Technical progress (1) : – Reduced the projected cost of hydrogen production from distributed natural gas (assuming widespread deployment) from $5 to $3 per gallon gasoline equivalent. – Reducing the projected, high-volume manufacturing cost of automotive fuel cell systems from $275/kW in 2002 to $73/kW in and improving the projected durability of fuel cell systems in vehicles from 950 hours in 2006 to 1900 hours in 2008 – Identifying new materials that have the potential to increase hydrogen storage capacity by more than 50 percent,5 and developing and demonstrating a novel “cryo-compressed” tank concept; – Reducing the projected cost of hydrogen production using renewable-based technologies—e.g., electrolysis and distributed reforming of bio-derived liquids (ethanol, sugars)—from $5.90 to $4.80 per gge (assuming widespread deployment) (1) Congress Report on “Hydrogen and Fuel Cell activities, Progress and Plan”, by US DoE, January 2009

What is it like today? (2) However: With current technology hydrogen fueled cars would be more than twice as expensive as internal combustion engine systems. Based on the highest demonstrated durability to date, fuel cell systems would have a lifespan of approximately 1900 hours, which equates to about 57,000 miles. The industry failed to meet the goal of 100,000 hydrogen-fueled vehicles by 2010, as specified in EPACT section 811(a)(4). To achieve goal of 2.5 million hydrogen fueled cars in the US by 2020 would require the government to pump at least $55 billion in subsidies over the next 15 years to make hydrogen vehicles cost competitive with conventional cars and trucks (1) (1)

What is it like today? (3) The Wall Street Journal reported in 2008 that "Top executives from General Motors Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp. Tuesday expressed doubts about the viability of hydrogen fuel cells for mass-market production in the near term and suggested their companies are now betting that electric cars will prove to be a better way to reduce fuel consumption and cut tailpipe emissions on a large scale. The Los Angeles Times wrote, in February 2009, "Hydrogen fuel-cell technology won't work in cars.... Any way you look at it, hydrogen is a lousy way to move cars On May 2009 the US Secretary of Engery Steven Chu announced that since fuel cell hydrogen vehicles "will not be practical over the next 10 to 20 years", the U.S. government will "cut off funds" for development of hydrogen vehicles, although the DoE will continue to fund research related to stationary Fuel cells (1) (1) The Newyork Times, May 7, 2009