2010 FIFA World Cup SAPIA readiness submission 19 May 2010

Presentation outline Background to the petroleum industry Critical facts about the industry Industry’s interdependence map 2010 FIFA World Cup readiness Risk identified and mitigating steps Transnet Strike – Current Scenario Potential Impact of Transnet Strike – Worst Scenario 19 May 2010

Critical facts about the industry The industry is interdependent and shares logistic facilities such as depots, pipelines and rail Gauteng is the biggest market and will also host the majority of the games. It is critical for the industry to ensure un-interrupted supply for this market 60% of ORTIA jet fuel supply comes from Natref via a dedicated pipeline. 40% of RSA petrol and diesel supply is sourced from inland refineries and the balance from coastal refineries and imports. Competition commission exemption was granted to allow enhanced logistic planning for the 2010 FIFA World Cup The industry and DoE are working together through the Ministerial Task Team (MTT) and Logistics Planning Team (LPT) primarily focusing on jet fuel readiness and cooperation on logistics 19 May 2010

The South African liquid fuels Industry interdependence Transnet Pipelines Crude Oil Consumer Refinery Tankfarm Coastal Refineries Refinery Tankfarm Inland Refineries Storage Depots Retail stations SCI Sasolburg Secunda Synfuels Tankfarm Road tanker Pipeline DJP (Final Products) Transnet Rail Storage Commercial customers Transnet Pipelines Retail station tank SBM Single Buoy Mooring (Isipingo) Road tanker Storage

Petrol and Diesel Critical sites identified for SWC period Credit card acceptance at critical sites Expected throughput for period to increase by 10% July prices only to be changed on 2 nd Wednesday Additional trucks & drivers secured Depots facilities to be optimised around critical feeder sites 2010 FIFA World Cup readiness Jet Fuel 40% increase forecasted in jet fuel demand Stock levels at ORTIA 19 May – 9.0 days ( m³) Planned end of May – 9 days Rail from coast Rail increased from 15 RTCs to 40 per day 22 Days to Kickoff… Refinery Readiness Refineries status All Refineries fully operational Jet fuel - Daily injection – 3700 m³ through pipeline from Natref Critical plants and equipment identified and closely monitored Planned stock levels – 7-9 days from May Imports Products are imported to balance demand. Shutdowns No planned shutdowns during world cup that will impact fuel production

Risks identified and mitigating steps RiskImpactMitigation Unplanned ORTIA Jet pipeline shutdown more than 5 days Stock of Jet depleted to critical level (less than 3 days stock) Likelihood very low and ability to recover within 2 days Capacity to build 5 more days stock at Natref Unplanned DJP pipeline shutdown more than 3 days Depots will run dry between 2- 5 days Gantry congestion at refineries Work with Transnet to effect backup plans Direct bridging by road to critical customers Critical sites running dry Disrupt World Cup logistics plan and those of soccer fans Additional trucks and drivers appointed Critical maintenance calls at sites will be closed out Timing is a crucial factor to effecting mitigation plans for 2010 SWC kick-off

Transnet Strike – Current Scenario Update Rail and Ports are impacted Rail fed depots getting full (Tarlton, Rustenburg) Sporadic market stockouts, especially ex Rail supplied depots Refinery depot gantries – heavily congested (Secunda, Sasolburg) Prolonged Strike Activity implies: Dealers will go into “panic mode” – fill up tanks (2005 industry experience relived) More stockouts at service stations and depots Refineries may shut down due to tanks being full Supply crisis, threatening country’s economy and the WC2010 event 19 May 2010

Potential impact of Transnet strike – Worst Scenario Assumptions All Transnet services disrupted: Port, Pipelines & Rail Road movement – no impact MarketRefinery Impact ORTIA empty after 9 days Service stations will be empty after 3-6 days Commercial customers also impacted after 2-7 days Chemical industries highly affected Eskom affected limited back-up for coal World Cup severely impacted Natref at reduced rate for 7 days, and then shutdown Total Synfuels shutdown after 5-7 days Coastal refineries will operate at reduced rate to complete shutdown Significant additional costs Safety impact due to higher risk during start up and shutdowns of plants Environmental impact due to flaring of chemical, etc. Contingency plans Maximize pipe & RTC deliveries to ORTIA while still operational Consider tankering at other airports Allocate supply per region with approval from DoE ( Potential Market allocation) Reduced rate to stay online longer RecommendationSpeedy resolution of the strike Recovery Plans Continued tankering to build up ORTIA stocks Push all available final product at the coast into DJP to Gauteng for SWC Start up of plants as soon as possible and safely (4- 7 days) Evaluate all crude and final product import plans

CONTACT INFORMATION: Maurice Radebe Chairman Office Address: Shanghai House, 52 Wierda Road West, Wierda Valley, Sandton, South Africa Tel: +27 (0) Fax: +27 (0)