ICML-Tutorial, Banff, Canada, 2004 Overview 1.Introduction to PLL 2.Foundations of PLL –Logic Programming, Bayesian Networks, Hidden Markov Models, Stochastic.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Zoran Majkic Integration of Ontological Bayesian Logic Programs
Advertisements

Simply Logical – Chapter 2© Peter Flach, 2000 Clausal logic Propositional clausal logic Propositional clausal logic expressions that can be true or false.
Bayesian networks Chapter 14 Section 1 – 2. Outline Syntax Semantics Exact computation.
Bayesian Networks CSE 473. © Daniel S. Weld 2 Last Time Basic notions Atomic events Probabilities Joint distribution Inference by enumeration Independence.
Sriraam Natarajan Introduction to Probabilistic Logical Models Slides based on tutorials by Kristian Kersting, James Cussens, Lise Getoor & Pedro Domingos.
BAYESIAN NETWORKS. Bayesian Network Motivation  We want a representation and reasoning system that is based on conditional independence  Compact yet.
Bayesian Network : An Introduction May 2005 김 진형 KAIST
Bayesian Networks Chapter 14 Section 1, 2, 4. Bayesian networks A simple, graphical notation for conditional independence assertions and hence for compact.
CPSC 322, Lecture 26Slide 1 Reasoning Under Uncertainty: Belief Networks Computer Science cpsc322, Lecture 27 (Textbook Chpt 6.3) March, 16, 2009.
Outline Recap Knowledge Representation I Textbook: Chapters 6, 7, 9 and 10.
Review: Bayesian learning and inference
Bayesian networks Chapter 14 Section 1 – 2.
CSCI 5582 Fall 2006 CSCI 5582 Artificial Intelligence Lecture 14 Jim Martin.
Bayesian Belief Networks
Goal: Reconstruct Cellular Networks Biocarta. Conditions Genes.
1 Probabilistic Belief States and Bayesian Networks (Where we exploit the sparseness of direct interactions among components of a world) R&N: Chap. 14,
Bayesian networks More commonly called graphical models A way to depict conditional independence relationships between random variables A compact specification.
Probabilistic Reasoning
EE562 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR ENGINEERS
Bayes Nets and Probabilities
CSCI 121 Special Topics: Bayesian Network Lecture #1: Reasoning Under Uncertainty.
Bayesian Networks Material used 1 Random variables
Artificial Intelligence CS 165A Tuesday, November 27, 2007  Probabilistic Reasoning (Ch 14)
Bayesian networks Chapter 14. Outline Syntax Semantics.
Bayesian networks Chapter 14 Section 1 – 2. Bayesian networks A simple, graphical notation for conditional independence assertions and hence for compact.
An Introduction to Artificial Intelligence Chapter 13 & : Uncertainty & Bayesian Networks Ramin Halavati
1 Knowledge Based Systems (CM0377) Lecture 4 (Last modified 5th February 2001)
Bayesian Networks What is the likelihood of X given evidence E? i.e. P(X|E) = ?
Probabilistic Belief States and Bayesian Networks (Where we exploit the sparseness of direct interactions among components of a world) R&N: Chap. 14, Sect.
Bayesian networks. Motivation We saw that the full joint probability can be used to answer any question about the domain, but can become intractable as.
1 Chapter 14 Probabilistic Reasoning. 2 Outline Syntax of Bayesian networks Semantics of Bayesian networks Efficient representation of conditional distributions.
Ch. 14 – Probabilistic Reasoning Supplemental slides for CSE 327 Prof. Jeff Heflin.
Aprendizagem Computacional Gladys Castillo, UA Bayesian Networks Classifiers Gladys Castillo University of Aveiro.
2 Syntax of Bayesian networks Semantics of Bayesian networks Efficient representation of conditional distributions Exact inference by enumeration Exact.
Bayesian Statistics and Belief Networks. Overview Book: Ch 13,14 Refresher on Probability Bayesian classifiers Belief Networks / Bayesian Networks.
Introduction to Bayesian Networks
An Introduction to Artificial Intelligence Chapter 13 & : Uncertainty & Bayesian Networks Ramin Halavati
Chapter 13 February 19, Acting Under Uncertainty Rational Decision – Depends on the relative importance of the goals and the likelihood of.
Probabilistic Reasoning [Ch. 14] Bayes Networks – Part 1 ◦Syntax ◦Semantics ◦Parameterized distributions Inference – Part2 ◦Exact inference by enumeration.
Marginalization & Conditioning Marginalization (summing out): for any sets of variables Y and Z: Conditioning(variant of marginalization):
Review: Bayesian inference  A general scenario:  Query variables: X  Evidence (observed) variables and their values: E = e  Unobserved variables: Y.
Ch. 14 – Probabilistic Reasoning Supplemental slides for CSE 327 Prof. Jeff Heflin.
1 Knowledge Based Systems (CM0377) Lecture 6 (last modified 20th February 2002)
CPSC 7373: Artificial Intelligence Lecture 5: Probabilistic Inference Jiang Bian, Fall 2012 University of Arkansas at Little Rock.
Conditional Probability, Bayes’ Theorem, and Belief Networks CISC 2315 Discrete Structures Spring2010 Professor William G. Tanner, Jr.
CPSC 322, Lecture 26Slide 1 Reasoning Under Uncertainty: Belief Networks Computer Science cpsc322, Lecture 27 (Textbook Chpt 6.3) Nov, 13, 2013.
PROBABILISTIC REASONING Heng Ji 04/05, 04/08, 2016.
Scalable Statistical Relational Learning for NLP William Y. Wang William W. Cohen Machine Learning Dept and Language Technologies Inst. joint work with:
Chapter 12. Probability Reasoning Fall 2013 Comp3710 Artificial Intelligence Computing Science Thompson Rivers University.
CS 2750: Machine Learning Bayesian Networks Prof. Adriana Kovashka University of Pittsburgh March 14, 2016.
A Brief Introduction to Bayesian networks
CS 2750: Machine Learning Review
CS 2750: Machine Learning Directed Graphical Models
Bayesian Networks Chapter 14 Section 1, 2, 4.
Bayesian networks Chapter 14 Section 1 – 2.
Presented By S.Yamuna AP/CSE
Qian Liu CSE spring University of Pennsylvania
Introduction to Artificial Intelligence
Conditional Probability, Bayes’ Theorem, and Belief Networks
Bayesian Networks Probability In AI.
Introduction to Artificial Intelligence
CSCI 121 Special Topics: Bayesian Networks Lecture #2: Bayes Nets
Probabilistic Reasoning; Network-based reasoning
Bayesian Statistics and Belief Networks
Belief Networks CS121 – Winter 2003 Belief Networks.
Bayesian networks Chapter 14 Section 1 – 2.
Probabilistic Reasoning
Bayesian Networks CSE 573.
Chapter 14 February 26, 2004.
Presentation transcript:

ICML-Tutorial, Banff, Canada, 2004 Overview 1.Introduction to PLL 2.Foundations of PLL –Logic Programming, Bayesian Networks, Hidden Markov Models, Stochastic Grammars 3.Frameworks of PLL –Independent Choice Logic,Stochastic Logic Programs, PRISM, –Bayesian Logic Programs, Probabilistic Logic Programs,Probabilistic Relational Models –Logical Hidden Markov Models 4.Applications

ICML-Tutorial, Banff, Canada, 2004 (Propositional) LP – Some Notations Clauses: IF burglary and earthquake are true THEN alarm is true Clause burglary. earthquake. alarm :- burglary, earthquake. marycalls :- alarm. johncalls :- alarm. Herbrand Base (HB) = all atoms in the program burglary, earthquake, alarm, marycalls, johncalls Program atom body head

ICML-Tutorial, Banff, Canada, 2004 Logic Programming (LP) Two views on definite clausal theories 1)A model theoretic one 2)A proof theoretic one Both views are connected

ICML-Tutorial, Banff, Canada, 2004 Model Theoretic: Restrictions on Possible Worlds burglary. earthquake. alarm :- burglary, earthquake. marycalls :- alarm. johncalls :- alarm. Herbrand Interpretation –Truth assigments to all elements of HB An interpretation is a model of a clause C  If the body of C holds then the head holds, too. burglary earthquake alarm marycalls johncalls true false true false true false true false true false

ICML-Tutorial, Banff, Canada, 2004 Goal Proof Theoretic (Entailment): Restrictions on Possible Derivations burglary. earthquake. alarm :- burglary, earthquake. marycalls :- alarm. johncalls :- alarm. :- johncalls. :- alarm. :- burglary, earthquake. :- earthquake. {} A set of clauses can be used to prove that atoms are entailed by the set of clauses.

ICML-Tutorial, Banff, Canada, 2004 Bayesian Networks [Pearl 91] Qualitative part: Directed acyclic graph Nodes - random vars. Edges - direct influence Compact representation of joint probability distributions Quantitative part: Set of conditional probability distributions e b e be b b e BE P(A | B,E) Earthquake JohnCalls Alarm MaryCalls Burglary P(E,B,A,M,J) Together: Define a unique distribution in a compact, factored form P(E,B,A,M,J)=P(E) * P(B) * P(A|E,B) * P(M|A) * P(J|A) [illustration inspired by Kevin Murphy]

ICML-Tutorial, Banff, Canada, 2004 Traditional Approaches P(j)= P(j|a) * P(m|a) * P(a|e,b) * P(e) * P(b) + P(j|a) * P(m|a) * P(a|e,b) * P(e) * P(b) e b e be b b e BE P(A | B,E) Earthquake JohnCalls Alarm MaryCalls Burglary Model Theoretic... + P(j|a) * P(m|a) * P(a|e,b) * P(e) * P(b) burglary. earthquake. alarm :- burglary, earthquake. marycalls :- alarm. johncalls :- alarm. Bayesian Networks [Pearl 91]

ICML-Tutorial, Banff, Canada, 2004 (Hidden) Markov Models [Rabiner 89] coin 2 coin : head 0.7 : tail 0.5 : head 0.5 : tail Moore coin 2 coin 1 0.5*0.5 : head 0.5*0.5 : tail 0.5*0.3 : tail 0.5*0.7 : head 0.5*0.5 : head 0.5*0.5 : tail 0.5*0.7 : head 0.5*0.3 : tail Mealy Observations: t, Hidden States: c1, c2, c1,c2,... Statistical models for sequences, i.e. observations over time T=0,1,2,3,... h, t,t,... Not observed

ICML-Tutorial, Banff, Canada, 2004 (Hidden) Markov Models coin 2 coin 1 0.5*0.5 : head 0.5*0.5 : tail 0.5*0.3 : tail 0.5*0.7 : head 0.5*0.5 : head 0.5*0.5 : tail 0.5*0.7 : head 0.5*0.3 : tail coin2. coin1 0.5*0.3 : tail [Rabiner 89] coin 2 coin 1 coin 2 coin 1 tail coin 2 coin 1 tail coin 2 coin 1 head Prior... = P P1 + P2 + P3 P11P12 P13 * * P10 = P20 + P4... Proof Theoretic *

ICML-Tutorial, Banff, Canada, 2004 Stochastic Grammars Weighted Rewrite Rules S NPVP PP i saw VNPP Det N N man with thetelescopethe 1.0 : S  NP, VP 1/3 : NP  i 1/3 : NP  Det, N 1/3 : NP  NP, PP 1.0 : Det  the 0.5 : N  man 0.5 : N  telescope 0.5 : VP  V, NP 0.5 : VP  VP, PP 1.0 : PP  P, NP 1.0 : V  saw 1.0 : P  with 1.0 *1/3 * 0.5 * 1.0 *... = Proof Theoretic [Manning, Schütze 99] Upgrade HMMs (regular languages) to more complex languages such as context-free languages.

ICML-Tutorial, Banff, Canada, 2004 Upgrading to First-Order Logic The maternal information mc/2 depends on the maternal and paternal pc/2 information of the mother mother/2 : mchrom(fred,a). mchrom(fred,b),... or better mc(P,a) :- mother(M,P), pc(M,a), mc(M,a). mc(P,a) :- mother(M,P), pc(M,a), mc(M,b). mc(P,b) :- mother(M,P), pc(M,a), mc(M,b).... father(rex,fred). mother(ann,fred). father(brian,doro). mother(utta, doro). father(fred,henry). mother(doro,henry). pc(rex,a). mc(rex,a). pc(ann,a). mc(ann,b)....

ICML-Tutorial, Banff, Canada, 2004 Upgrading - continued Full Clausal Logic Functors aggregate objects Relational Clausal Logic Constants and variables refer to objects Propositional Clausal Logic Expressions can be true or false alarm :- burglary, earthquake. atom clause head body Substitution: Maps variables to terms: { M / ann }: mc(P,a) :- mother(ann,P),pc(ann,a),mc(ann,a). Herbrand base: set of ground atoms (no variables): {mc(fred,fred),mc(rex,fred),…} atom mc(P,a) :- mother(ann,P),pc(ann,a),mc(ann,a). clause head body variable (placeholder) constant terms nat(0). nat(succ(X)) :- nat(X). atom clause head body variable constant functor term Interpretations can be infinite ! nat(0),nat(succ(0)), nat(succ(succ(0))),...

ICML-Tutorial, Banff, Canada, 2004 Forward Chaining father(rex,fred). mother(ann,fred). father(brian,doro). mother(utta, doro). father(fred,henry). mother(doro,henry). pc(rex,a). mc(rex,a). pc(ann,a). mc(ann,b).... mc(P,a) :- mother(M,P), pc(M,a), mc(M,a). mc(P,a) :- mother(M,P), pc(M,a), mc(M,b). {M/ann, P/fred} mc(P,a):- mother(M,P), pc(M,a), mc(M,b). mc(fred,a)... mother(ann,fred).pc(ann,a)mc(ann,b) father(rex,fred).... Set of derivable ground atoms = least Herbrand model

ICML-Tutorial, Banff, Canada, 2004 Backward Chaining father(rex,fred). mother(ann,fred). father(brian,doro). mother(utta, doro). father(fred,henry). mother(doro,henry). pc(rex,a). mc(rex,a). pc(ann,a). mc(ann,b).... mc(P,a) :- mother(M,P), pc(M,a), mc(M,a). mc(P,a) :- mother(M,P), pc(M,a), mc(M,b). mother(ann,fred). {M/ann} pc(ann,a),mc(ann,a) mother(ann,fred). {M/ann} pc(ann,a),mc(ann,b) pc(ann,a). mc(ann,a) fail pc(ann,a). mc(ann,b) success mc(fred,a) {P/fred} mother(M,fred),pc(M,a),mc(M,a) mc(P,a):- mother(M,P), pc(M,a), mc(M,a). mother(M,fred),pc(M,a),mc(M,b) mc(P,a):- mother(M,P), pc(M,a), mc(M,b). {P/fred}