Implications of Climate Change in the South West

Presentation Outline 1.The Science of Climate Change: a brief overview 2.Future climate change: what can the South West expect? 3.Impacts of climate change: how are key sectors affected? 4.Drivers for adaptation: why preparing for change is essential 5.Taking action: adaptation case studies and tools

The Science of Climate Change: a brief overview

Weather vs. Climate Climate = the average weather in a locality over a 30 year period Weather = what it is doing outside right now

The greenhouse effect

Observed Model simulation Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and Research Temperature change ºC Natural factors cannot explain recent warming

Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and Research Observed Model simulation Temperature change ºC Recent warming can be simulated when manmade factors are included:

Observed temperatures Simulated temperatures We are already committed to this from past emissions alone Source Met Office Hadley Centre 2040s summer temperatures could become regular by the 2040s 35,000 people died across Northern Europe as a result of the 2003 August heatwave – effective planning is essential 2003 temperatures normal by 2040s

Temp rise is difference from 1750 IPCC Emission Scenarios High Medium Low World Stabilisation Scenario Peak in emissions at 2016 followed by an annual decrease of 4% Some change is inevitable We are locked into some change because of past emissions Year Start to diverge from

Observed changes in the South West Between 1961 and 2006… Ave. summer temp. increased by 1.41 °C Summer precipitation decreased by 8.8% Winter precipitation increased by 15.9% Sea Level in Newlyn has risen 20 cm since out of the past 10 years have now brought serious flooding to the UK Globally, the 10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1997

Mitigation reducing our emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) Adaptation preparing for the unavoidable impacts of climate change

Regional partnership funded by a range of public and private organisations Regional Adaptation Response Climate SouthWest focuses on climate change impacts and adaptation. Its mission is: To help the South West Region of England to adapt sustainably to the impacts of climate change

Climate SouthWest Funders

Describes climate change scenarios for the South West Identifies likely impacts Suggests actions needed to respond “Warming to the Idea” Climate SouthWest scoping study. Updated 2010

Future Climate Change: What can the South West expect?

Increased summer temperatures 17 South-West England central estimate Medium emissions Increased Tourism Increased Heat stress Infrastructure risks Risks to biodiversity Heat related deaths Risk to Food Security The change for the 2080s is very unlikely to be less than 2.1ºC or more than 6.4ºC Map showing average summer temperature change, medium emissions scenario, 2080s  C 2020s  C 2080s  C 2050s But the temperature on the hottest day of the year could increase by up to 10ºC

Decreased summer precipitation 18 For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than -49% or higher than +6% Reduced stream flow and water quality Increased drought Potential benefits for tourism Subsidence Serious water stress Decreased crop yields South West England central estimate Medium emissions Map showing average summer precipitation change, medium emissions scenario, 2080s - 8% 2020s - 24% 2080s - 20% 2050s

Increased winter precipitation 19 Increased winter flooding Increased subsidence Risks to urban drainage Severe Transport disruption Risks of national Infrastructure For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than +6% or higher than +54% South West central estimate Medium Emissions Map showing average winter precipitation change, medium emissions scenario, 2080s + 7% 2020s +23% 2080s + 17% 2050s

Relative sea level rise 20 central estimate Medium emissions Note. Global average sea level rise: = 1.8mm/year; = 3.1mm/year (IPCC, 2007) The H++ scenario for mean sea-level rise around the UK is 93 cm cm approx by Weston-super-Mare:12 cm Newlyn:13 cm Poole:12 cm 2050 Weston-super-Mare:26 cm Newlyn:29 cm Poole:26 cm

Contribution to England & Wales winter precipitation from extreme 3-day events Met Office Hadley Centre More frequent and intense severe weather events

© Bournemouth Tourism ‘Disappointed Ducks’ “ RESORTS PACKED AS RECORDS TUMBLE” Dorset Echo, 11 th August summer floods cost + £3 billion Insured losses from weather-related events cost £1.5bn / yr 2003 Heatwave led to 2000 deaths “Parched April leads to alerts over silage and grain sales” Western Morning News, 4 th May 2011

Impacts of climate change: How are key sectors affected?

Climate SouthWest Key Sectors Agriculture & Forestry Biodiversity Housing & Construction Business & Utilities Health Local Government Tourism Transport

Impacts for Agriculture and Forestry Challenges Increased risk of disease Heat stress to poultry and livestock Increased risk of drought Loss of productive land due to sea level rise Increased soil erosion and run-off Opportunities New crop varieties Reduced frost damage Longer growing seasons Improved land management and woodland creation

Impacts for Biodiversity Challenges Risk to drought vulnerable species Increased visitor pressure on natural environment Invasive non-native flora and fauna Change in SW natural environment Opportunities Flora and fauna move to northern distributions Integrated land management and habitat creation © RSPB

Impacts for Business & Utilities Challenges Business continuity Recovery costs from events Increased insurance costs Health and safety risks Disruption to supply chain / movement of goods and services Opportunities New market opportunities – goods and services Recreational and leisure opportunities Opportunities to enhance reputation Reduced energy demand in winter Slad Road, Stroud (Bernard Wakefield-Heath)

Impacts for Housing and Construction Challenges Development in floodplains More need for summer cooling Increased rain penetration Subsidence/landslips Rising demand for water but decreased supply Opportunities Less demand for winter heating More potential for solar energy Increased amount of trees Improved drainage infrastructure Changing design standards © White Design

Impacts for local authorities and Local Strategic Partnerships Challenges Protecting residents and business in flood risk areas Impacts on natural environment Impacts & pressures on infrastructure Service delivery continuity Opportunities Leadership by example Partnership working Improved health – outdoor lifestyles Business opportunities - tourism

Impacts for Tourism Challenges Visitor destinations at capacity Increased insurance costs Damage to buildings Staff and visitor health and safety Coastal locations threatened by sea level rise and increased erosion Opportunities Potentially longer season Job creation Diversification Tourism in ‘off peak’ periods New market opportunities © Bournemouth Tourism

Impacts for Transport Challenges Increased pressure on transport system from increased visitors Increased disruption Increased damage to infrastructure Opportunities Increased scope for walking and cycling Less frost damage to infrastructure and less need for gritting Fewer ice/snow related accidents and infrastructure damage

Impacts for Health Challenges Over exposure to UV – cataracts & skin cancer Increased heat related deaths Impacts of air pollution Food poisoning Infectious / tropical diseases Opportunities Increased physical recreation – reduction in obesity Milder winters – reduction in excess winter deaths Fewer cold related admissions

Drivers for adaptation Why preparing for change is essential

573 business properties directly affected (est. only 80% insured) without water for up to 17 days without power for 42 hours people trapped on M5 & railways £14.3M - emergency repair & response costs for Gloucestershire businesses Businesses out of action for months! (Pitt Review, 2008) Gloucestershire floods e The South West is vulnerable to the existing climate

12th August 2003, Bournemouth & Poole High temperatures (31+°C) attract record numbers of visitors Accommodation full 20% more traffic than usual Pollution more than double Gov. Health Limit 700 parking tickets issued over weekend Emergency vehicles access blocked 2003 Heatwave – Bournemouth & Poole © Bournemouth Tourism The temperatures during the 2003 heatwave are likely to become normal in summer by the 2040s

Climate Change Act 2008 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment every five years National adaptation programme must be put in place and reviewed every five years Adaptation Reporting Power Adaptation Sub-Committee

Business drivers: Insurance Key messages for businesses:  Climate adaptation is likely to become part of insurance criteria  Well prepared businesses could save money on premiums  Unprepared businesses may not secure insurance cover In the SW, a 2°C rise could increase annual insured flood losses by 19% - leading to a potential pricing increase of up to 16%. A 4°C rise could increase losses by 29% - leading to a potential pricing increase of up to 27%. ‘The Financial Risks of Climate Change’ (ABI, 2009)

Business drivers: Reputation Growing awareness –69% cite flooding as one of the most common effects of climate change –Businesses need to show they care and are ahead of the game Responsible business - Reputation as employer -Reputation to customers -People care

Taking action: Adaptation case studies and tools

Adaptation = Risk management © Environment Agency

Flood case study: Old Mill Hotel, Bath Temporary flood boards ‘Tanked’ the underneath of the restaurant – i.e. sealed it Management training The laundry store was moved from the basement Close contact is kept with the Environment Agency to monitor the risk Catering facilities and staff are prepared - able to move a second kitchen and function room upstairs

Drought case study: High Post Golf Club Drought-resistant grasses Water allocation process uses less water Likelihood of disease reduced – less fungicide needed Increased reputation – recognised as ‘on course for sustainability’ Member support gained through open forum “Plan for future climate change and don’t be frightened to bang the drum and get some publicity for being pro- active – it’s usually free marketing!” Peter Hickling, High Post manager

Construction case study: The Scarlet Hotel, Mawgan Porth Natural ventilation (7%) and heat recovery ventilation (85%) Natural swimming pool – uses rainwater and no chlorination Green roofs and landscaping with a soakaway Grey and rainwater harvesting systems

Community case study: Slapton Line Partnership Coastal erosion Road can only be maintained for max years Signage for alternative routes Contingency plan for road closures Business Forum to discuss challenges and opportunities Emphasising attraction of nature reserve

Tools to support adaptation Caravan and campsite flood risk management pack Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool ‘Changing Climate Changing Business’ DVD Online toolkit for tourism businesses Case Studies

Preparing for flooding

Conclusions Climate change is a “now” issue We need to plan for current and future vulnerability Planning proactively will be more cost effective than reacting Opportunities for those who are resilient and able to adapt Climate change impacts should be integrated into planning, policy and decision-making

“Adaptation actions should be integrated into development policy and planning at every level. … ignoring climate change is not a viable option – inaction will be far more costly than adaptation” Stern Review, 2006 The Costs of (In) Action:

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