1 US Lodging Industry Overview and State and Market Overview The SHARE Center Supporting Hotel-related Academic Research and Education
2 Agenda Total US Update US Drill Down Booking Channel Update Sample State Overview - Tennessee Sample Market Overview - Nashville Projections
3 Total US Review
4 Europe % 5.4% 3.0% 0.8% Middle East & Africa % 0.3% -7.0% 9.0% Asia Pacific % 9.3% 0.1% 2.5% South America % 9.4% 2.3% -1.8 North America % 5.5% 4.2% 3.0% Occupancy rebounded from 2009, still growing in most regions Central America % 6.6% 1.2% -0.5% Caribbean % % 3.8% Global Occupancy Percent Change - Continents & American subcontinents Annual 2009, 2010 & 2011 & April YTD 2012
5 Europe $ % -2.1% 9.3% -2.8% Middle East & Africa $ % 2.1% 5.3% -0.8% Asia Pacific $ % 9.1% 9.3% 4.4% South America $ % 8.6% 16.4% 6.7% North America $ % 0.6% 3.7% 3.9% ADR growth improving - some areas of the world slower than others Central America $ % -0.8% -0.6% 1.4% Caribbean $ % 4.3% 3.2% 4.8% Global ADR Percent Change - Continents & American subcontinents Annual 2009, 2010 & 2011 & April YTD 2012
6 Europe $ % 3.0% 12.5% -2.0% Middle East & Africa $ % 2.6% -2.1% 8.0% Asia Pacific $ % 18.5% 9.4% 6.9% South America $ % 18.8% 19.1% 4.8% North America $ % 6.0% 8.1% 7.1% RevPAR strong in most areas Central America $ % 5.4% 0.5% 0.9% Caribbean $ % 2.1% 7.6% 8.8% Global RevPAR Percent Change - Continents & American subcontinents Annual 2009, 2010, 2011, & April YTD 2012
7 2011: The World Recovered Number of Markets with Positive REVPAR Percent Changes: Americas: 194 of 212 Europe: 84 of 98 AsiaPac: 38 of 47 Middle East / Africa 19 of 33 *RevPAR in local currency Source: STR Global
8 Most Major Global Markets Did Well *2011 % Change, ADR & RevPAR in local currency Source: STR Global MarketOCCADRRevPAR Beijing Berlin Dubai Hong Kong London Mexico City Moscow Sao Paulo Sydney Tokyo Toronto
9 Total US - Key Statistics December YTD 2011 Value % Change Hotels 52,300 Supply 1.8 B 0.6% Demand 1.1 B 5.0% Room Revenue $107.6 B 8.8% Occupancy 60.1% 4.4% ADR $ % RevPAR $ % All percent changes are positive, record demand numbers and low supply %chg
10 Total US - Key Performance Indicators Annual 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 Occupancy back to 2008 level, ADR ½ way, RevPAR ⅔ way
11 Total US - Key Performance Percent Change Indicators Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 Big Demand & Occ turn around; ADR negative in 2010, but positive in 2011
saw strongest Demand increase in history and sharp Supply decrease Supply: 3.0% (Sep 09) 0.4% (Apr 12) Demand: -7.0% (Aug 09) 7.8% (Feb 11) 4.1% (Apr 11) -0.9% - 4.6% Total US - Supply and Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average, January 1989 to April 2012
13 Total US - Actual Monthly Room Supply Millions of Room Nights, Seasonally Adjusted, Jan 1998 to Dec 2011 Supply has levelled off, for the first time since 2004
14 Total US - Actual Monthly Room Demand Millions of Room Nights, Seasonally Adjusted, Jan 1998 to Dec 2011 Demand at record high level for most of 2011!
15 Total US - Closed Hotels Annual 2004 through ,242 rooms in 2005 to 14,265 rooms in 2010 Huge decrease in closed hotels leading up to 2010, small resurge in 2011
16 Total US - Opened Hotels Annual 2004 through ,623 rooms in ,667 rooms in 2010 Continued decrease in new development in 2011 Significant drop in number of new opens in 2010 and 2011
17 Total US – Monthly Supply Percent Change January 2005 to December 2011 “Close up” of monthly Supply percent changes for last couple of years
18 Total US – Monthly Demand Percent Change January 2005 to December 2011 “Close up” of monthly Demand % changes, positive for most of 2010 & 11
19 Occupancy leveling, ADR returning, very different recovery than 2002! % % Occupancy: -9.7% (Sep 09) 6.3% (Apr 11) 4.5% (Dec 11) ADR: -8.9% (Jan 10) 3.7% (Dec 11) % 0.0 % Total US – Occupancy and ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average, Jan 1989 to Dec 2011
20 Total US - Occupancy & ADR Actual Values Twelve Month Moving Average – January 1997 to April 2012 Major challenge for the industry – making up the lost ADR!
21 ADR Discounting at Twice the Speed of ADR Recovery Total US Actual ADR, 12 Month Moving Average, Apr ‘10 $97 Sept ‘08 $108 Dec ‘11 $ % -10% 19 Months
ADR Grown By CPI Total US Actual ADRs and Inflation Adjusted ADR, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov, 2011 – 2013 CPI from Blue Chip Economic Indicators $85 $101 $104 $85 $107$109 $107 $117 Inflation Adjusted ADRs Currently Well Out Of Reach 2007 ADR Grown By CPI
23 Total US - Monthly Occupancy Percent Change January 2005 to December 2011 “Close-up” of monthly Occupancy % Change – strongly positive for 2010 & 11
24 Total US - Monthly ADR Percent Change January 2005 to December 2011 “Close-up” of ADR % Change – positive (gradually) since middle of 2010
25 $54.86 Nov 2000 $55.38 Feb 2005 Total US - Actual Monthly RevPAR Seasonally Adjusted, January 1998 to December 2011 RevPAR recovery looks better than ADR recovery
26 Total US - Monthly RevPAR Percent Change January 2005 to December 2011 “Close-up” of RevPAR % Change – positive since middle of 2010
27 Total US – Post-Recession Demand Percent Change 12 Month Moving Average - From Start of Recession, by Month Three very different economic cycles
28 Total US – 2011 HOST (Hotel Operating Stats/P&L) Update
29 Total US - Estimated Total Revenue and Profitability Annual Numbers from 2001 to 2010 Total Revenue and Profit in Billions
30 US Drill Down (Scales, Locations, Regions, Top Markets, Group/Transient, Weekday/Weekend) Scales
31 Changes to STR Scales in 2011 Luxury – W Hotel, Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont, Waldorf, Intercontinental, JW Marriott Upper Upscale – Sheraton, Hyatt, Hilton, Marriott, Westin, Renaissance Upscale – Hilton Garden Inn, Courtyard, Aloft, Indigo, Radisson, Wyndham Upper Midscale - Holiday Inn, Hampton Inn, Fairfield Inn, BW Plus Midscale – LaQuinta, Wingate, Sleep Inn, BW, Quality Inn, Ramada Economy – Econolodge, Red Roof, Days Inn, Motel 6, Super 8 Changed to Upper Mid and Midscale from Midscale with and w/o F&B (Also Best Western started converting their hotels to Plus and Premium)
32 Historic Scales – Supply Percent Change Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 High 2009 & 2010 supply growth in Luxury and Upscale groups; 2011 Upper Mid and Midscale numbers affected by BW conversion
33 Historic Scales – Demand Percent Change Annual 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 Largest 2010 Demand recovery at upper end
34 Historic Scales – Occupancy Percent Change Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and dropped most at lower end, 2010 recovered most at the upper end
35 Historic Scales – ADR Percent Change Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 Upper end impacted most in 2009, Luxury only positive in 2010
Update - Strong Demand Growth, Supply Not An Issue Supply and Demand Percent Change, by Scale, Annual 2011 Midscale Supply Change Caused by Best Western Re-classification
Update - Early Recovery, Occupancy % Chg > ADR % Chg Occupancy and ADR Percent Change by Scale, Annual 2011
Update - Upper End Sells 7 out 10 Rooms Every Night Absolute Occupancy by Scale, Annual 2007 & 2011
Update - Demand Recovery Strongest At Upper End Total Room Demand in Millions, by Combined Scales, Annual 2007 & 2011
40 No Surprise Here: Room Revenue Grows At Upper End As Well Total Room Revenue in Billions $, by Combined Scales, Annual 2007 & 2011
41 ADR Growth Is Strong – But Not Strong Enough (...yet) Absolute ADR $, by Scale, Annual 2007 & 2011
42 Recent ADR Compression by Scale : Threat or Opportunity? US Chain Scales, Actual ADRs, Peak (2008) vs. Valley ( ) Compression especially at top end, differences narrowed, trade-up easier
43 US Drill Down - Locations, Regions, Markets
44 Locations – Supply Percent Change Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 Highest 2009 peaks in Suburban and Interstate
45 Locations – Demand Percent Change Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 Urban, Suburban, and Airport big winners in 2010
46 Locations – Occupancy Percent Change Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 Highest 2010 occupancy in Urban, Suburban, and Airport
47 Locations – ADR Percent Change Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 Urban and Resort down most in 2009 and up most in 2011
48 US Regions – Occupancy, ADR, & RevPAR Percent Change Annual 2011 Occupancy: 4.6 % ADR: 5.5 % RevPAR: 10.3 % Occupancy: 4.9 % ADR: 3.3 % RevPAR: 8.4 % Occupancy: 2.5 % ADR: 3.8 % RevPAR: 6.5 % Occupancy: 5.6 % ADR: 2.8 % RevPAR: 8.5 % Occupancy: 5.0 % ADR: 3.2 % RevPAR: 8.4 % Occupancy: 3.0 % ADR: 2.7 % RevPAR: 5.7 % Occupancy: 4.2 % ADR: 2.7 % RevPAR: 7.0 % Occupancy: 3.6 % ADR: 4.4 % RevPAR: 8.1 % Occupancy: 5.1 % ADR: 3.2 % RevPAR: 8.6 % TOTAL US Occupancy: 4.3 % ADR: 3.7 % RevPAR: 8.2 % 2011 – positive Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR for all regions
49 Regions – Supply Percent Change Annual 2009, 2010 and 2011 Largest supply numbers in regions with big cities
50 Regions – Demand Percent Change Annual 2009, 2010 and recovery largest in regions with big cities
51 Regions – Occupancy Percent Change Annual 2009, 2010 and recovery largest in regions with big cities
52 Regions – ADR Percent Change Annual 2009, 2010, and 2011 Regions on coasts affected the most in 2009, recovered the most
53 Top 25 Markets - Supply Percent Change, Annual 2011
54 Top 25 Markets - Demand Percent Change, Annual 2011
55 Top 25 Markets - Occupancy Percent Change, Annual 2011
56 Top 25 Markets - ADR Percent Change, Annual 2011
Update for “5/20/All” Markets – Demand Exceeds 2007 Three groups: Five Select Markets, Remaining Top 25 Markets, and All Others Room Demand in Millions; Annual 2007, 2009, 2011
Update for “5/20/All” Markets ADRs Still Elusive Three different Market groups; Actual ADR $; Annual 2007, 2009, & 2011
59 US Drill Down – Group/Transient, Day of Week, and Weekday/Weekend
60 Transient Occupancy breaks records … Total US Monthly Transient Occupancy – January 2007 to December 2011 Group & Transient Data for mainly Upper Tier hotels (Lux, Upper Up, top ⅓ indeps)
61 But Transient ADR is not Total US Monthly Transient ADR – January 2007 to December 2011 Above 2009 & 2010 levels, but not above 2007 & 2008
62 Group Occupancy above 2010, but below 2007 levels Total US Monthly Group Occupancy – January 2007 to December 2011 Above 2009 & 2010 levels, closing in on 2007 & 2008 levels
63 Group ADR improving, but below 2007 & 2008 levels Total US Monthly Group ADR – January 2007 to December 2011 Above 2009 & 2010 levels, still below 2007 & 2008
64 Transient ADR Growth (Hopefully) Will Aid Group ADR in 2012? Transient versus Group ADR, Annual 2007 through 2011 No surprise Group ADRs tend to follow behind Transient ADRs
65 Total US – Occupancy by Day of Week Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and Occ above 2008 level on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, 1 off on weekdays
66 Total US - ADR by Day of Week Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 Day of Week 2011 vs ADR diffs: weekdays - $6-7, weekends - $4
67 Booking Channel Highlights
68 Booking Channel Foundations Data Nights sold and revenue per property per month from Jan 2009 to YTD 2011 Participation 25,500 US & WW chain & independent hotels, All major players Booking ChannelsBrand.com, CRS/Voice, GDS, OTA, Property Direct/Other OTAs Booking.com, Expedia, Hotels.com, Hotwire, Orbitz, Priceline, Travelocity, Travelweb, All others Business Models Merchant (Expedia), Opaque (Priceline), Retail (Booking.com)
69 Demand Share by Channel for Total US Annual 2009 & 2010 (Percent of Total Room Nights) Small YOY increases in OTA, Brand.com, GDS Small YOY decreases in CRS/Voice, Prop Direct/Other
70 Revenue Share by Channel for Total US Annual 2009 vs (Percent of Total Room Revenue) Slight variation between Revenue Share and Demand Share percentages due to channel profitability and revenue contribution of different scale hotels
71 OTA Room Revenue Share for Total US Annual *, OTA Revenue as Percent of Total Revenue *2011 projected; growth periods: , , and 2011; Revenue share never goes down Source: PhocusWright, Smith Travel Research
72 Revenue Growth for Total US & OTAs Annual * (YOY % Change of Total Revenue and OTA Revenue) *2011 projected, ** 2002 and 2003 values off the chart (100% and 63.6 %) OTA Revenue Percent Change never was negative, unlike hotel industry
73 OTA Demand & Revenue Share for Total US YTD June 2009, 2010 and 2011 (Percent of Total by OTA Business Models) Total OTA Share = Merchant + Retail + Opaque; all models up, retail faster
74 ADR by Channel for Total US Annual 2009 & 2010 (in Dollars) Costs included in certain channels, Merchant & Opaque are net
75 OTA Demand Share by Scale for Total US YTD June 2009, 2010 and 2011 OTA share decreased in upper scales, increased in lower scales, esp. Econ.
76 Top 15 Markets by OTA Percent of Total Demand Annual 2010, Combined OTA Demand compared to Total Demand OTA percent higher in large leisure and group destinations
77 Sample State Overview - Tennessee The following slides provide an example of a Hotel Industry Overview for a typical state
78 State of Tennessee - Key Performance Indicators Annual 2011 Values (also rank among 50 states & DC) % Change Number of Hotels 1,404 (9) Number of Rooms 119,937 (12) Room Supply 43,870, % (11) Room Demand 24,695,345 (12) 6.3% (9) Occupancy 56.3% (33) 5.2% (12) Average Daily Rate $79.43 (38) 4.3% (10) RevPAR $44.71 (34) 9.7% (10) Room Revenue$196 million (18) 10.9% (7) Ranked #9 in Number of Hotels, Ranked in top 10 in Demand, ADR, RevPAR, and Revenue % Change
79 Comparable States – Occupancy Percent Change Annual 2011 Tennessee has highest Occupancy % Change among bordering states
80 Comparable States– ADR Percent Change Annual 2011 Tennessee has highest ADR % Change among comparable states as well
81 Tennessee by Market – Property & Room Count MarketMarket CodeCensus PropsCensus RoomsSample PropsSample Rooms Knoxville, TN , ,182 Memphis, TN-AR-MS , ,943 Nashville, TN , ,369 Tennessee Area , ,283 Chattanooga, TN-GA ,341827,522
82 Tennessee Markets - Room Supply Percent Change Annual 2011 Supply increase in Nashville due to 2010 flood
83 Tennessee Markets – Demand Percent Change Annual 2011 Demand increase in Nashville related to 2010 flood
84 Tennessee Markets – Occupancy Percent Change Annual 2011 Occupancy % changes consistent, Nashville strongest
85 Tennessee Markets – ADR Percent Change Annual 2011 Wide disparity between markets
86 Tennessee by Market and Tract MarketMarketCodeTractTractCodeCensusPropsCensusRoomsSamplePropsSampleRooms Knoxville, TN470100Knoxville ,198666,970 Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge ,755717,220 Knoxville TN Area ,175382,992 Memphis, TN-AR-MS470200Memphis ,278203,363 Memphis Airport & South ,504192,303 Memphis East ,283787,952 Memphis West ,529141,148 Nashville, TN470300Nashville Downtown ,087397,053 Nashville Airport , ,133 Nashville I-65 North ,094292,691 I-24/Murfreesboro ,140423,791 Brentwood/Franklin ,252344,090 Nashville Other Areas ,079382,611 Tennessee Area470400Clarksville MSA, TN ,472241,810 Bristol-Kingsport MSA ,697403,561 Tennessee East Area ,014734,748 Tennessee Central Area ,751493,351 Tennessee West Area ,105533,578 Chattanooga, TN-GA470500Chattanooga ,113243,095 Chattanooga Area ,671514,094
87 Tennessee Select Tracts – Occupancy Percent Change Annual 2011 Largest Occupancy % changes in Knoxville (business) and Clarksville (military)
88 Tennessee Select Tracts – ADR Percent Change Annual 2011 Wide disparity between tracts, 3 low and 4 higher
89 Tennessee by County (counties with 10 or more hotels) CountyCounty CodeCensus PropsCensus RoomsSample PropsSample Rooms Anderson County, TN ,238141,058 Blount County, TN ,992121,168 Bradley County, TN , Cocke County, TN Coffee County, TN , Cumberland County, TN Davidson County, TN , ,292 Dickson County, TN Dyer County, TN Hamblen County, TN Hamilton County, TN ,402726,995 Hardin County, TN Jefferson County, TN Knox County, TN ,511707,259 Loudon County, TN McMinn County, TN Madison County, TN ,457222,027 Maury County, TN Monroe County, TN Montgomery County, TN ,472241,810 Putnam County, TN ,434131,042 Roane County, TN Robertson County, TN Rutherford County, TN ,583332,864 Sevier County, TN ,755717,220 Shelby County, TN , ,368 Sullivan County, TN ,186171,586 Sumner County, TN Washington County, TN ,970171,665 Williamson County, TN ,784303,594 Wilson County, TN ,485151,135
90 Tennessee Counties – Occupancy % Chg, Annual 2011 Most positive, 4 in double digits, 5 in 5-10 range, 5 in 0-5 range, 3 flat or negative
91 Tennessee Counties – ADR % Chg, Annual 2011 Most positive in the 0-5 range, 2 in 5-10 range, 2 flat or negative
92 Tennessee by Physical City (cities with 10 or more hotels) CityCensus PropsCensus RoomsSample PropsSample Rooms Nashville14321, ,890 Memphis14015, ,258 Pigeon Forge869,076293,346 Knoxville868,198666,970 Chattanooga817,548636,283 Gatlinburg766,036212,138 Murfreesboro312,731222,046 Clarksville362,472241,810 Jackson282,417222,027 Franklin192,195172,090 Brentwood182,057172,000 Johnson City221,910161,605 Sevierville211,901121,022 Kingsport201,733121,167 Cleveland281, Cookeville191, Alcoa151,295111,114 Goodlettsville161, Lebanon161, Manchester Morristown Kodak Dickson Millington Columbia Crossville Newport Dyersburg
93 Additional State Data – lots of possibilities Compare Actual Occupancy or ADR values State by Location or Scale - Prop/Room Count & Graph State by Brand - Prop/Room Count Physical Cities – Graph (more than markets & tracts) Historic Supply, Demand, Occupancy & ADR vs. US Group/Transient or Day of Week data - Graph Pipeline Stats: opens, closes, hotels under construction, & projects in planning
94 Sample Market Overview - Nashville The following slides provide an example of a Hotel Industry Overview for a typical city or market
95 Market of Nashville - Key Performance Indicators Annual 2011 Values (also rank among 162 US markets) % Change Number of Hotels 316 (66) Number of Rooms 35,712 (43) Room Supply 12,929, % (2) Room Demand 8,036,641 (36) 11.3% (6) Occupancy 62.2% (42) 7.1% (27) Average Daily Rate $93.33 (62) 7.4% (8) RevPAR $58.01 (52) 14.8% (7) Room Revenue $75 million (36) 19.6% (3) Ranked #2 in Supply % Change related to flood in 2010, Ranked in top 10 in Demand, ADR, RevPAR, and Revenue % Change
96 Comparable Markets – Occupancy Percent Change Annual 2011 Nashville 3 rd highest Occupancy % Change among similar cities
97 Comparable Markets – ADR Percent Change Annual 2011 Nashville has highest ADR % Change among comparable markets
98 Nashville Market by Tract – Property & Room Count TractCensus PropsCensus RoomsSample PropsSample Rooms Brentwood/Franklin374,252344,090 I-24/Murfreesboro595,140423,791 Nashville Airport6711, ,133 Nashville Downtown407,087397,053 Nashville I-65 North524,094292,691 Nashville Other Areas624,079382,611
99 Nashville Market Map
100 Nashville Tracts - Room Supply Percent Change Annual 2011 Supply increase in Nashville Airport Tract due to 2010 flood
101 Nashville Tracts – Demand Percent Change Annual 2011 Demand strong, increase in Airport tract related to 2010 flood
102 Nashville Tracts – Occupancy Percent Change Annual 2011 Downtown and North less than other (Suburb & South) tracts
103 Nashville Tracts – ADR Percent Change Annual 2011 Varied: Downtown strong, Airport related to flood, Murfreesboro negative?
104 Nashville Market by City (all cities) CityCensus PropsCensus RoomsSample PropsSample Rooms Nashville14321, ,890 Murfreesboro312,731222,046 Franklin192,195172,090 Brentwood182,057172,000 Goodlettsville161, Lebanon161, Antioch Dickson Smyrna Hermitage White House Mount Juliet43474 Hendersonville Gallatin Madison Springfield La Vergne31683 Portland Burns Joelton11161 Kingston Springs Fairview28500 Whites Creek1831 Ashland City12700 Greenbrier12300
105 Nashville Market by Scale – Property & Room Count ScaleCensus PropsCensus RoomsSample PropsSample Rooms Luxury Chains13401 Upper Upscale Chains157,420157,420 Upscale Chains334,851334,851 Upper Midscale Chains717,126717,126 Midscale Chains464,085443,907 Economy Chains837,282696,026 Independents684,
106 Nashville Market by Brand (brands w/ 500 rooms or more) ChainCensus PropsCensus RoomsSample PropsSample Rooms Gaylord Entertainment12,8841 Holiday Inn Express151,668151,668 Hampton Inn & Suites101,140101,140 Days Inn131,054131,054 Courtyard71,0487 Embassy Suites41,0374 Marriott39993 Sheraton Hotel28822 Best Western Comfort Inn Super Americas Best Value Inn Hampton Inn87028 Holiday Inn26802 Renaissance16731 DoubleTree36433 Quality Inn86218 Comfort Suites86038 La Quinta Inns & Suites55835 Country Inn & Suites85558 Hyatt Place55545 Hilton Garden Inn45474 Hilton25332 Ramada65296 Red Roof Inn55005
107 Nashville by Scale – Occupancy Percent Change Annual 2011 Occupancy % changes strongest at opposite ends
108 Nashville by Scale – ADR Percent Change Annual 2011 Total includes Luxury and Independents, large proportion of Upper Up
109 Nashville Market by Class – little different than Scale ClassCensus PropsCensus RoomsSample PropsSample Rooms Luxury Class37093 Upper Upscale Class157,420157,420 Upscale Class334,851334,851 Upper Midscale Class727,264717,126 Midscale Class494,418454,103 Economy Class14511,146706,160 Independents are combined with chain hotels at similar price level
110 Nashville Market by Location – Property & Room Count LocationCensus PropsCensus RoomsSample PropsSample Rooms Urban598,464417,462 Suburban14713, ,599 Airport668,539567,437 Interstate412,761291,927 Resort Small Metro/Town Not enough hotels in Resort or Small Metro/Town categories
111 Nashville by Location – Occupancy Percent Change Annual 2011 Occupancy % changes strongest in non-urban locations
112 Nashville by Location – ADR Percent Change Annual 2011 Urban has strongest ADR growth, Total includes other hotels
113 Nashville Pipeline Data – Recent Opens and Closes StageBrandCityRooms Open Date Date Closed ClosedKnights InnNashville220Nov-70Jul-10 OpenCourtyardGoodlettsville120Jan-10 OpenHotel IndigoNashville97Mar-10 OpenLa Quinta Inns & SuitesSmyrna76Jun-10 OpenComfort SuitesMount Juliet73Jul-10 OpenCandlewood SuitesMurfreesboro85Oct-10 OpenTownePlace SuitesNashville101Jan-12
114 Nashville Pipeline – Hotels Under Construction & In Planning StageBrandCityRooms Anticipated Open Date Under ConstructionDrury Plaza HotelFranklin344Mar-12 Under ConstructionHome2 SuitesNashville119Jun-12 Under ConstructionTownePlace SuitesFranklin125Nov-13 Under ConstructionOmniNashville800Dec-13 Final PlanningLa Quinta Inns & SuitesLebanon72Oct-12 Final PlanningCandlewood SuitesSmyrna88Nov-12 Final PlanningHoliday InnFranklin130Feb-13 Final PlanningResidence InnNashville150May-13 Final PlanningSpringhill SuitesNashville103May-13 Final PlanningHomewood SuitesNashville192Jul-13 Final PlanningHyatt PlaceNashville255 n/a PlanningCandlewood SuitesLebanon91Mar-13 PlanningHoliday InnNashville180Nov-13 PlanningHoliday InnMurfreesboro100Feb-14 PlanningHome2 SuitesNashville109Apr-14 PlanningHomewood SuitesFranklin120Sep-14
115 Additional Market Data – lots of possibilities Compare Actual Occupancy or ADR values Physical Cities – Graph (more detail than just tracts) Market by additional cuts (size, age, boutique, conference, special interest) Historic Supply, Demand, Occupancy & ADR Group/Transient or Day of Week data – Graph Daily data analysis (conventions, sporting events, entertainment, or weather)
/ 2013 Forecast
117 Total US - Key Performance Indicator Outlook Percent Change vs. Prior Year, Annual Outlook 2012 Forecast 2013 Forecast Supply 0.8%1.4% Demand 1.3%2.0% Occupancy 0.5% ADR 3.8%4.4% RevPAR 4.3%4.9%
118 Total US – Actual Occupancy Forecast Annual 2005 – 2013P
119 Total US – Actual ADR Forecast (In Dollars) Annual 2005 – 2013P
120 U.S. Economic Outlook Blue Chip Economic Indicators – January F2013F Real GDP+1.7%+2.2%+2.6% CPI+3.2%+2.1% Corporate Profits+8.1%+6.6%+6.3% Disp. Personal Income+1.1%+1.4%+2.0% Unemployment Rate9.0%8.7%8.3%
121 Total US - Key Performance Indicator Outlook by Scale Annual 2012F by Chain Scale 2012 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury 2.7%4.7%7.4% Upper Upscale 0.1%3.5%3.6% Upscale 2.0%4.5%6.6% Upper Midscale -0.3%3.7%3.4% Midscale 1.0%0.8%1.8% Economy 0.7%2.4%3.1% Independent -0.3%3.4%3.1% Total United States 0.5%3.8%4.3%
122 -5% to 0% 0% to 5%5% to 10% 10% to 15%15% to 20% Anaheim-Santa AnaBoston Miami-Hialeah AtlantaChicago DallasDetroit DenverMinneapolis-St Paul HoustonNashville Los Angeles-Long BeachNorfolk-Virginia Beach New OrleansOahu Island New YorkSan Diego OrlandoSt. Louis Philadelphia Phoenix San Francisco-San Mateo Seattle Tampa-St Petersburg Washington, DC 2012 Year End RevPAR Forecast February 2012 Forecast – sorted alphabetically
Year End RevPAR Forecast February 2012 Forecast – sorted alphabetically -5% to 0% 0% to 5%5% to 10% 10% to 15% Anaheim-Santa AnaAtlanta DenverBoston NashvilleChicago New OrleansDallas New YorkDetroit Norfolk-Virginia BeachHouston Oahu IslandLos Angeles-Long Beach OrlandoMiami-Hialeah PhiladelphiaMinneapolis-St Paul PhoenixSan Diego San Francisco-San MateoSeattle St LouisTampa-St Petersburg Washington DC
124
125 Weekday/Weekend Demand Percent Change Total US Running 12 Month - Jan 2007 to Aug 2010 Weekend travel started positive demand trend in early 2010
126 Weekday/Weekend ADR Percent Change Total US Running 12 Month - Jan 2007 to Aug 2010 Weekday & Weekend ADR almost in lockstep?