1 What is (and is not) a Skills Planning Mechanism for South Africa? 19 March 2014 Pretoria Labour Market Intelligence Roundtable

Objectives 1.What is (and is not) a skills planning mechanism? 2.What should a skills planning mechanism do and for what purpose? 3.What are the two dominant approaches to skills planning? 4.What are the fundamental differences between these approaches? 5.What are the determinants of supply, demand and deployment? 6.What are some methodological considerations? 2

3 What is a credible “institutional mechanism for skills planning”? It is a skills intelligence system that consists of:  interacting frameworks;  policies, processes and procedures;  institutional structures;  human resource capacities;  governance and management arrangements;  collaborative institutional partnerships;  research, information and data;  research methodologies, tools and techniques; and  a web interface. to provide information and insights on occupational demand and supply for the purpose of economy-wide sector skills planning.

What should a skills planning mechanism do and for what purpose? Occupational mismatches Occupational Projections Occupational Trends Deployment Vacancies Enrolment & Progression Worker Mobility Wage Movements Sector Strategies Occupational migration Skills Planning Qualifications Development Programme Development Career Services Programme Mix Career Pathways Resourcing Institutional Planning Skills Intelligence System

5 Institutions FRAMEWORKS What is a possible architecture of a Skills Planning Mechanism? Demand Deploy Supp ly Management Structures Methods Actors Partnerships Staffing WORK PSET SCHOOLING MIGRATORY REGULATORY FRAMEWORKS LABOUR MARKET ECONOMY SOCIETY INDUSTRIAL POLICY Resources Institutional Arrangements Outputs Functions Framework Activities Processes Relationships INTERMEDIARIES

Demand Supply Deployment New Demand Created Skills Planning Linear Approach to Skills Planning

Demand Supply Deploy IT Skills Planning Management Methods GovernanceGovernance Institutions Structures Partnerships Infrastructure PoliciesResourcesPoliciesResources Systems Approach to Skills Planning

SUPPLY Determinants of Demand DEMAND DEPLOYMENT LATENT Projected Demand Dormant Demand Replacement Demand Potential Demand MANIFEST Active Labour Market Policies Technology Industry Strategy Economic conditions Wages & Employment Conditions Skills Utilisation Labour Mobility

Determinants of Supply DEMAND SUPPLY DEPLOYMENT STOCK RECRUITMENT Employment / Unemployment Migration PSET Enrolment / Graduation Vacancy levels, rates, durations Wages trends Employability Work-based training Apprenticeships / Learnerships Sector employment / Unemployment Occupational movements Job openings Employment Conditions Labour market participation

10 SUPPLY DEMAND DEPLOYMENT School-to-Work Transitions Apprenticeships / Learnerships WSP Planning Workforce Development Employability Employment Conditions Determinants of Deployment Labour Turnover Labour Mobility Placements

11 Employment / Unemployment Migration PSET Enrolment / Graduation Work-based training Apprenticeships / Learnerships STOCK RECRUITMENT Labour market participation Vacancy levels, rates, durations Wages trends Employment Conditions Employability Sector employment / Unemployment Job openings LATENT Projected Demand Dormant Demand Replacement Demand Potential Demand SUPPLY DEMAND DEPLOYMENT School-to- Work Transitions Apprenticeships / Learnerships WSP Planning Workforce Development Employability Employment Conditions MANIFEST Economic conditions Labour Mobility Skills Utilisation Active Labour Market Policies Technology Industry Strategy Wages & Employment Conditions Skills Intelligence System

12 Underpinning methodological considerations Demand Deploy Supp ly Employment Survey Forecasting Labour Force Survey Reverse Tracer Study Occupational StudiesScenario Planning Tracer Study Migration Study Sector Skills Plan Industry Study Environmental Scanning Wage Study LM Observatories Training Survey Skills Audit Establishment Survey Multi-Institutional Framework Strategy Design Sectoral Local Regional Macro Enterprise Research Framework

Thank you Hoosen Rasool