August 2012 Reuben Ternes, OIRA

Presentation in 6 Parts Introduction to OIRA Part I: FTIAC Growth Part II: Recruitment Data Part III: The Importance of Transfer Students Part IV: Comparing OU to National Data Part V: Academic Success Indicators OVERVIEW

Tracks and projects enrollment Reports to federal agencies (IPEDS) Official record keeper for large amounts of university data Analyzes policy decisions (i.e. Is it a good policy to encourage students to take 16 credits their first semester, regardless of their ACT score? What will happen to our retention rates if we change our admission requirements?) Reports graduation rates, retention rates, etc. Gathers and reports on various student surveys. …and much much more… WHAT DOES OIRA DO?

Lots of potentially useful info on the website: New student profiles Enrollment data, current and historical Ad hoc reports Retention and Graduation Rate Data NSSE Data Assessment data and links PowerPoint Presentations (including this one) OIRA WEBSITE

Part I

HISTORICAL FTIACS NUMBERS ?

CHALLENGES TO FTIAC GROWTH

There are two major obstacles responsible for the gap between the 2020 goal and the steady state projections 1). High School Demographics 2). Current Market Share UNDERSTANDING THE PROJECTIONS

NCES has revised their projection downward from last year’s projection. (This means they expect even fewer students to graduate from MI high schools in the next few years) NCES NOTES

County of Origin% of 2011 FTIAC Cohort Oakland42.5% Macomb30.4% Wayne10.4% Genesee2.9% Lapeer2.1% St. Clair2.0% Every Where Else9.7% 2011 OU-FTIACS BY COUNTY

MARKET SHARE, 2011 VS Market Share of FTIACs County Oakland15.5%15.4% Macomb23.5%25.1% Wayne4.0%3.7%

Bad News for FTIAC Enrollment High school graduates are down We will need to do more with less Over 80% of our FTIACs come from only 3 counties Our market share in other counties is low and/or non-existent. The Good News for FTIAC Enrollment The decline in projected high school students is slightly less severe in Oakland and Macomb counties (at least for the next few years). These are the counties where we have the highest market share. FTIAC GROWTH: GOOD AND BAD NEWS

Part II

HIGH SCHOOLS WITH MOST ENROLLED FTIACS Top 22 Feeder High Schools for Fall 2011 RankName Enrolled RankNameEnrolled 1 Eisenhower79 12 Utica41 2 Adlai E Stevenson Waterford Mott39 3 Lake Orion Community Rochester Adams37 4 Romeo58 15 Warren Mott33 5 Stony Creek57 16 Holly31 6 Rochester55 17 Anchor Bay28 7 Athens54 18 Avondale Senior27 8 Clarkston Senior51 19 Brandon27 9 Troy50 20 Walled Lake Central25 10 Henry Ford II47 21 Paul K Cousino24 11 Chippewa Valley41 22 Pontiac23

Yield: the probability that an applicant will enroll. Many variables are correlated with yield HS GPA ACT scores Plus many others. The relationship between HS GPA and yield follows a non-obvious (and non-linear) pattern. YIELD BY HS GPA

YIELD BY HS GPA FOR FALL 2010

ACT scores follow a similar pattern Predicting who will attend is not straightforward Because of this, OIRA used a technique known as Random Forest to predict who might attend and who might not. It works a lot like Netflix. It does not work like Pandora! (Pandora has a terrible algorithm). Takes into account over 50 different variables! Like Application date, event registration, time between application and decision, scholarship offers, family income, HS rank and size, ACT scores, etc. etc. YIELD, CONTINUED

Accuracy = 75% So, it’s pretty good. But it still gets a lot of predictions wrong. It’s not perfect! RF is another tool in the toolbox. It’s useful, but it won’t do our jobs for us. RANDOM FOREST: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Part III

New students = FTIACs + New Transfers 2361 new FTIACs in new transfer students in 2011 This Year: FTIACs up 3% Transfers up 3% Official count is not until the end of September, so these numbers may fluctuate. About half of our seniors are transfers. (Which suggests that about half of our degree recipients are too) PART III: TRANSFER DATA

WHERE DO OUR TRANSFER STUDENTS COME FROM? Campus Name FA11 New X-fers Macomb Cmty Coll Center Campus326 OCC – Auburn Hills193 OCC123 OCC – Highland Lakes76 MCC – South Campus70 Wayne State University52 OCC – Royal Oak49 OCC – Orchard Ridge46 Central Michigan University40 Western Michigan University31 Schoolcraft College32 Michigan State University31 GVSU30

Approximately 75% come from 2-year colleges while 25% come from 4-year institutions. Almost 50% were 21 or younger. About 25% are 25 or older. 72% were full-time. 70% had a GPA of a 2.5 or higher from their former institution. Half had a GPA of 2.9 or higher. NEW TRANSFER STUDENT PROFILE (FALL 2011)

Part IV

OU has two major student surveys through OIRA CIRP (freshmen only) NSSE (freshmen and seniors) Results for both are available on: These surveys give us information about our student body How many hours they work? How difficult they find courses to be at OU How much money their parents make How often they drink Why they choose OU Etc… Mostly, we find that OU is similar to other institutions. However, there are some differences. SURVEYS

VERY IMPORTANT REASONS TO SELECT OU

THE IMPORTANCE OF KEEPING UP TO DATE WITH POLITICS

MARIJUANA SHOULD BE LEGALIZED

DRANK BEER DURING HIGH SCHOOL YEAR

MORE THAN 15 HOURS PER WEEK WORKING OFF CAMPUS

“ THE ENVIRONMENT EMPHASIZES SPENDING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF TIME ON ACADEMIC WORK” Average NSSE Response (Freshmen) “Quite a Bit” “Very Much” (4.0) “Some” (2.0)

TIME SPENT ON ACADEMIC WORK Hours Per Week 6-10 Hours Per Week (3.0)

Part V

PERCENTAGE OF FULL TIME FTIACS WITH 1 ST SEMESTER GPAS LESS THAN 2.0

FT-FTIAC RETENTION TO SECOND YEAR

6-YEAR GRADUATION RATE BY ACT SCORE

6 YEAR GRADUATION RATE BY HS GPA

FIRST YEAR RETENTION RATE BY ACT SCORE

FIRST YEAR RETENTION BY HS GPA

What questions do you have for me? What questions do you have for OIRA? What data do you use on a regular basis? What information do you need? What tools do you need to turn your data into information? QUESTIONS