Mathematical models for city analysis: an approach applied to Smart Cities Valentino Moretto Puglia Smart Lab Smart Cities in one indicator!!! + 14

PSLab is a newborn LL, a space of innovation in which citizens, Government and enterprises collaborate together to co-create services derived from concrete needs in our territory. Puglia Smart Lab PSLab is one of the first outcomes of a research project funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research. The aim of is providing a 15-young professionists group with multidisciplinary skills necessary for smart territory strategic development. project is supervised by Dhitech Scarl, a High Tech District (established since 2005 in Apulia). PSLab has officially joined ENoLL, European Network of Living Labs, as an adherent member, since August 2013 at "The 7th wave of ENoLL members”.

Source: CITIES EVOLUTION In the USA urbanization was minimal until 200 years ago; today it’s above 82% China will be building 300 new cities in 20 years One million people a week will be moving in cities until 2050 Source: 18 La Habana 11 Marseille 12 Athene 8 Istanbul 3 Naples 5 Santo Domingo 7 Houston 19 Port au Prince 2 Baranquilla20 Algeri 14 Benghazi 1 Alexandria 9 Jakarta 15 Tel Aviv 10 Igmir 6 Bayrut 4 Sapporo 6 Bayrut 13 Shangai 17 Ningbo 16 Fuzhou

A JUNGLE OF INDICATORS GDP Total Fertility Rate Deficit/GDP Density Urban Growth Rate Total Population NO x Emission GDP/GHG Emission PM10 Emission Nitrogen Dioxide CO 2 Emission Green technologyGreen Action Plan Public Participation in green policy Use of non- car transport Green transport promotion Congestion Reduction Policies Source: ROI- Return on Investment ROE- Return on Equity ROS- Return on Sales Water Consumption Energy Intensity Waste Water Treatment Green Transport

“…bigger species require less energy per Kg when compared to smaller species. As an example, an elephant needs 1000 times more energy than a guinea-pig despite being times bigger…” IN BIOLOGY… …AND, INSTEAD, WHAT HAPPENS IN CITIES?

Every living being gets slower as its size increases. This is called sublinear behaviour. However cities are different: when their size increases, every social aspect speeds up. There is no equivalent model in nature! Source: intersci.ss.uci.edu/wiki/index.php/Realistic_modeling_of_complex_interactive_systems WEST - BETTENCOURT THEORY

15% RULE – CITY SUPERLINEAR SCALING There are two different trends due to city size increase Superlinear - raising social interactions means more innovation and wealth, but higher crime rates as well (β = 1.15). Sublinear - less investment per capita infrastructure required such as streets, cables, sewage, etc. (β = 0.85). Source: /intersci.ss.uci.edu/wiki/index.php/Realistic_modeling_of_complex_interactive_systems

WEST-BETTENCOUR MID STEPS City Behaviours MIXING POPULATION INCREMENTAL NETWORK GROWTH SOCIO-ECONOMIC OUTPUT BOUNDED HUMAN EFFORT Non linear behaviour in urban transport networks Decentralized networks for people connectivity The bigger the city, the more mental/physical effort but social interactions as well Socio-economic outputs are proportional to local social interactions

G INDICATOR G is the output that represents the entire set of urban aspects as well as the condition for existence and enhancement of cities. G = Y (Social interaction outcome) – W (dissipation) Gmin: City does not exist Gmax : City collapses G*: City output maximization Source:

It is necessary to shift G* forward, in order to improve city users’ life conditions, in spite of city dimension increasing. This would result in better socio-economic outcomes and more social interactions. How? Source: G. West, "Is a quantitative predictive,science of cities conceiveable? What can we learn from physics & biology? Santa Fe Institute, Said Business School, Oxford University. February,2012 G* INDICATOR  Citizenship proactive participation  Innovative urban planning  Balancement between density, mobility and social connectivity

OUR GOAL An innovative analytic assessment way to exploit cities’ full potential A tool to provide support to Government for a better understanding of cities A new methodology for long term strategical planning of cities

…SO, WHAT’S OUR REAL GOAL? Next year, in Smart City Exhibition 2014, we would like to present outstanding. Do you wanna team up with us? …Involve you, stimulate your partecipation to Puglia Smart Lab, experiment together this new methodology.

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