™ 41 st Annual AFLA Conference Volatility & Opportunities While Managing the Matrix of Change September 10,
What a Year Since We Last Met The Perfect Storm Economy-got much worse, starting to turn? Credit Issues-more available, but still squeezed Gas Prices-came off the peak, bottomed out, creeping back Volatility & Opportunities
Economy Slow Retail Sales – Auto & Consumer Goods Government local cut backs lower tax collections schools cutting back only the Federal Gov’t not cutting back Unemployment 9.7%…but not the worst ever
Unemployment Rates - Historical Source : Nov./Dec % Aug %
Unemployment Rates Source : Unemployment Rates by State, seasonally adjusted, July National Average for August 2009 = 9.7% Historical High in Nov./Dec = 10.8% R.I. 12.7
Home Equity Tighter Credit Scores Tighter Funding Home Mortgages – Foreclosures/Values Automotive Credit Issues
Auto Loan Delinquency Auto Loan Delinquency DirectIndirect Highest in 19 years! Q Q1 1991Q Q Q Q1 1996Q Q Q1 1998Q Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q Q Q Q1 2006Q1 2007Q Q Percent Source : American Bankers Association
Other Loan Delinquencies
Foreclosure Rates
Gasoline Prices Source :
Automotive Trends
Year-To-Year Trend Jan.08 Aug.08 Dec.08 Jan.09 Apr.09 Aug.09 Domestic Car Domestic Truck Import Car Import Truck
Year-To-Year Trend Domestic Domestic Truck Import Import Truck Average Dollar Change in 3Year Old Vehicle Jan.-Aug.09Jan.-Aug.08
Best Performers* of 2008 & 2009 Sporty Car -$642 (-3.1%) Entry Mid-Size Car -$98 (-0.8%) Upper Mid-Size Car -$76 (-0.6%) Entry Level Car -$58 (-0.7%) Compact Car $642 (6.3%) Jan.-Aug. '08 *2006 Models Full-Size Pickup +$2493 (+15.6%) Full-Size SUV +$3837 (+21.8%) Mid-Size SUV +$2915 (+20.7%) Compact SUV +$2825 (+21.7%) Luxury SUV +$2468 (+8.2%) Jan.-Aug. '09 *2007 Models *3 Year Old Vehicles
Greatest Volume Fleet Vehicles * *Q out of top 11 vehicles are Impalas
2007 Chevrolet Impala LS Trend to Continue?
2007 Vehicle Trends
Fleet Model Years * % % % % % % % * Q2 2009
Fleet Vehicles (Biggest Losers*) Luxury Car Mid-Size Car Compact Car Full-Size Car Sporty Car Aug08Aug09 *2007 Vehicles Only Sold in Q2 2009
Fleet Vehicles (Winners*) Cargo Van Crossover SUV Passenger Van Mid-Size SUV Pickup Aug09Aug08 *2007 Vehicles Only Sold in Q2 2009
Looking Ahead… The Opportunities
36-Month $ Residual Trend
36-Month % Residual Trend *2010 Residuals as of 9/01/ * median= 47.26median= 47.23median= 41.28median= mean= 46.96mean= 47.27mean= 41.97mean= sdev= 7.14sdev= 6.61sdev= 7.41sdev= 6.62 N= 285N= 291N= 273N= month Jan.1 Percent.Residuals [percent] for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 [All Models]
36-Month $ Residual Trend
36-Month % Residual Trend *2010 Residuals as of 9/01/ * median= 47.48median= 47.25median= 41.72median= mean= 47.32mean= 47.29mean= 40.86mean= sdev= 6.94sdev= 6.62sdev= 6.56sdev= 6.07 N= month Jan. 1 Percent.Residuals (Common Models) [percent] for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 Models
36-Month $ Residuals : Winners and Losers Difference is in 36-month Residuals when expressed in dollars. Note : Number in parenthesis indicates number of models in segment. (4) (3) (2) (5) (3) (2) (6) (5) (4)
36-Month % Residuals : Winners and Losers Difference is in 36-month Residuals when expressed in percentage Note : Numbers in parenthesis indicate number of models in segment (3) (2) (4) (5) (4) (5) (1) (4)
Flex Fuel Hybrid Hybrid 2-Mode : GM, BMW, Chrysler (gone) Diesel Electric Driving CAFÉ Standard by 2016 Alternative Fuels
Hybrid vs. Gasoline (Escape)
Diesel Over Gas Premium* [$]
Diesel Over Gas Premium [%] * 2006 & 2007 Models 280% 125% 163% 35%
Dollars Volatility to Reasonable to Steady +$ wks -$ wks -$ wks +$ wks +$ wks +$500 7 wks +$ wks
Volatility (Trucks) 2007 Models Values [$]
Volatility (Trucks) 2007 Models Values [$]
Volatility (Trucks) 2007 Models Values [$]
Volatility (Cars) Values [$]
Volatility (Cars) Values [$]
Volatility (Cars) Values [$]
Bankruptcy* Effect on Values 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2-Year Depreciation (2007 Models) [%] Bankruptcy Extinct Remaining Vibe Matrix Caliber Cobalt Corolla FocusMalibu Fusion Camry Tahoe G6 Expedition VUE CR-V Rav4 Outlook Acadia *Lower is Better
Bankruptcy* Effect on Values $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 2-Year Depreciation (2007 Models) [$] Bankruptcy Extinct Remaining Vibe Matrix Caliber Cobalt Corolla FocusMalibu Fusion Camry Tahoe G6 Expedition VUE CR-V Rav4 Outlook Acadia *Lower is Better
Cash for Clunkers (What’s Ahead for Retail?) Bankruptcy Brand Fewer Dealerships-Smaller Inventories Remarketer’s Internet Auctions Types of Models, Engine Size, Fuel Efficiencies Alternative Fuels – CAFÉ by 2016 (35.5 mpg) Gas Prices and Their Effects Limited Supply of Used Vehicles How High Can It Go? (Monthly $, New vs. Used) Information is King! Final Thoughts Change-Tough But Inevitable…What You Did in the Past Won’t Work Today or Tomorrow-Applies to Buying and Remarketing Timely, Independent, Accurate
™ Thank you Ricky Beggs P.O. Box 758 Gainesville, GA