UNCLASSIFIED 1 UNCLASSIFIED Scenario Brief 16 July 05 MPAT TEMPEST EXPRESS-8 HAWAII JULY 2005

UNCLASSIFIED 2 Horn of Africa

UNCLASSIFIED 3 Azuria

UNCLASSIFIED 4 Size: 660,657 sq km Terrain: principally desert, mostly flat to undulating plateau rising to hills in the north Climate: December to February-NE monsoon, moderate temperatures in north, very hot in south. May to October- SE monsoon, torrid in north, hot in south Natural resources: minerals, oil reserves Natural hazards: earthquakes, droughts, cyclonic disturbances and flash floods, dust storms Azuria Facts

UNCLASSIFIED 5 Population: 9.1 million Ethnic Groups: Azuri 85% Druids 12% French, Arab, Ethiopian, Italian, Others 3% Religion: Muslim 94%, Christian 6% Language: Azuri (Official), French, Italian, English, Druid Azuria Facts-2

UNCLASSIFIED 6 Capital: Djibouti City Government: no permanent national government- Transitional Federal Government is only “national” body Economy: Agriculture, herding, foreign aid Military: none at national level. Three major factions have separate forces. Azuria Facts-3

UNCLASSIFIED 7 Arabs control Gulf of Tadjoura area until 16 th century-Druid sultans take over French arrive to counter British presence in Aden 1880s- Britain and Italy occupy different parts of Horn of Africa and establish colonies 1888-French build Djibouti City, which becomes trans- shipment point for Ethiopia hinterland British and Italian colonies become independent Republic of Azuriland 1977-French colony becomes independent country of Djibouti 1982 both countries unite as the Republic of Azuria Early History

UNCLASSIFIED 8 Inter-clan conflict, competition for resources result in large IDP population (375,000) Ethiopian treatment of Druid minority forces refugees to flee to Azuria Oil reserves in Gulf of Aden developed Azuria national structure breaks down, three factions control country: Druid Independence Movement Southern Azuri Federation Republic of Northern Azuriland Recent History

UNCLASSIFIED 9 Azurian Factional Boundaries

UNCLASSIFIED 10 Key Events 2005 Piracy attacks in Gulf of Aden Factions separate and seek resumption of international aid Factions agree to cease fire, but severe skirmishes continue as do clan disputes Druid faction allegedly receiving support from Ethiopia Druids Aid agencies return Earthquake strikes further damaging Djibouti City Floods hit Mogadishu Avian influenza breaks out in Ethiopia

UNCLASSIFIED 11 Avian Flu Outbreak

UNCLASSIFIED 12 Djibouti Earthquake

UNCLASSIFIED 13 Mogadishu Floods

UNCLASSIFIED 14 Key Events 2005 continued Factions sign Nairobi Agreement Cessation of hostilities Border protocol Formation of Transitional Federal Government UN Security Council Resolution 5440 Welcomes US as lead nation for MNF up to six months Provides mandate Authorizes all necessary means Declares intent to establish follow on PKF – India to provide PKF commander

UNCLASSIFIED 15 DC Camps

UNCLASSIFIED 16 UN Resolution Mandate Ensure cessation of hostilities among the factions Maintain separation of factions Establish temporary border regime Support SRSG efforts to resolve future of Transitional Federal Government, including conduct of elections Facilitate establishment and maintenance of public safety and law and order Support establishment of conditions to allow international / regional organizations to provide humanitarian assistance

UNCLASSIFIED 17 U.S. Pacific Command issues Warning Order to CCTF 15 Jun 05 Coalition consists of five countries: US (lead), Malaysia, Thailand, Mongolia, United Kingdom Other nations intend to provide assistance during the same time but not as formal part of the coalition-most will be part of the follow-on PKF as well US core planners conduct initial mission analysis/deploy to Djibouti City 15 July 05 Additional coalition force planners, LNOs, planners for follow on PKF arrive by 21 July 05 Coalition Task Force “Kokua”