Richard J. Rudden Senior Vice President Black & Veatch Enterprise Management Solutions A Challenging Year Lies Ahead: The Economy and Its Impacts on Public Power APPA 2009 Business and Financial Conference September 14, Savannah, GA
Page - 2 Credit Spreads (basis points above US Treasury yield) © Standard & Poor’s 2009 Data as of Aug 17, Sources: Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research. ‘AAA’, ‘CC’, and ‘C’ rating categories not displayed because of small sample size Standard & Poor’s Composite Credit Spreads by Rating Category Since June 17, 2003
Page - 3 Annual percent change, 2000 dollarsPercent Source: IHS Global Insights Real GDP Growth and the Unemployment Rate
Page - 4 Fiscal Stimulus Has Peak Impact in Total Stimulus Personal Tax Cuts Income Assistance Corporate Tax Cuts State & Local Govt. Transfers Infrastructure & Other (Billions of dollars) Source: IHS Global Insights
Page - 5 Top Concerns of CFOs – Macro Economy 1.Consumer Demand 2.Credit market/interest rates 3.Federal-government policies 4.Housing-market fallout 5.Cost of nonfuel commodities 6.Cost of fuel 7. Currency risk 8. Foreign competition 9. Environmental regulation 10.Trade policies and trade agreements Source: CFO Magazine, July/August 2009 When will we get a little help from the consumer?
Page - 6 Top Concerns of CFOs – Their own companies 1.Ability to forecast results 2.Working-capital management 3.Maintaining morale/productivity during economic downturn 4.Balance-sheet weakness 5.Attracting and retaining qualified employees 6.Cost of health care 7.Managing IT systems 8.Supply-chain risk 9.Pension obligations 10.Protection of intellectual property Source: CFO Magazine, July/August 2009 Forecasting is now the top internal worry as companies struggle to gauge demand
Page - 7 Negotiating Position is Improving… Source: CFO Magazine, July/August 2009 No, haven’t tried Have you tried to renegotiate with your lenders or suppliers for terms that are more favorable for your company? SuppliersLenders Yes, successfully renegotiated Yes, but unsuccessfully
Page - 8 The Economy is Improving… Sooner or Later Source: CFO Magazine, July/August 2009 When do you expect the U.S. economy to begin recovery?
Page - 9 The “Top Ten” Challenges for Declining or flat sales 2.Constraints on capital expenditures 3.Uncertainty over future carbon costs 4.Unfunded pensions and “OPEBs” 5.Customer rates 6.Local taxes and transfers 7.Rating agency surveillance 8.Investor relations 9.Renewables and Smart Grid 10.Potential monetization of assets
Page - 10 A Challenging Year Lies Ahead: The Economy and Its Impacts on Public Power APPA 2009 Business and Financial Conference September 14, Savannah, GA Richard J. Rudden Senior Vice President Black & Veatch Enterprise Management Solutions Richard J. Rudden Senior Vice President Black & Veatch Enterprise Management Solutions