Prospects for Food & Water Availability and Quality A view based on Climate Change Let's Avoid Climate Change is Happening Mitigation Effects/Adaptation Bruce A. McCarl Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University http//ageco.tamu.edu/faculty/mccarl Presented at a meeting on Megaregions + MetroProsperity: Sustainable Economics for the Texas Triangle During panel on Food & water: Are we secure? Houston, September 24, 2009

Coverage Do we have a food issue now? What will climate change do to food? What will climate change due to water? Fresh Sea level What are challenges of climate change mitigation and adaptation

Do we have a food issue now? The Texas Megaregion is Food Deficit and has no prospects of being any other way. We import. As a state we are food surplus likely only in cotton ( 30%) beef (16%) wheat (5-7%) Broilers (6%) None of these are big enough in triangle area

Some say recent data shows this is over Easterling, D. R., and M. F. Wehner (2009),Is the climate warming or cooling?, Geophys. Res. Lett., in press. (accepted 30 March 2009)

Ups and downs in global atmospheric temperatures over a decade are not easy to interpret Global Average Climate Change Easterling, D. R., and M. F. Wehner (2009),Is the climate warming or cooling?, Geophys. Res. Lett., in press. (accepted 30 March 2009)

Precipitation is increasing but not here Amount from wet days is increasing Subtropics forecast to be drier Degree of climate change Precipitation

Less water Degree of climate change - What is projected Texas in relatively severely affected area

Nationally more crops – Texas 25% less acres Cold limited acres CO2 effect Source McCarl work for US National Assessment Table 2 National crop sensitivity over all crops giving average yield change in percent to GCM behind Climate Scenario -- Hadley Canadian CSIRO REGCM Corn Belt Great Plains Lake States Northeast Rocky Mountains Pacific Southwest Pacific Northwest South Central Southeast South West National Red signifies results below mean Live with it - Agriculture

IPCC meters (no ice melt) Greenland 7 meters Antarctica 55 meters Scenarios 1-5 meters Houston 13 meters Sea Level – Coastal

Pre industrial - 275Counting Non CO this is increase almost doubles Mitigation of climate change Why is this happening

Climate change mitigation – Texas and GHGs US EIA, State by State Energy related CO2 emissions -- Texas wins US EPA, Most emissions from energy Emissions growing

Why Adapt - Inevitability [1] [1] The best estimate of climate sensitivity is 3ºC [WG 1 SPM]. [2][2] Note that global mean temperature at equilibrium is different from expected global mean temperature at the time of stabilization of GHG concentrations due to the inertia of the climate system. For the majority of scenarios assessed, stabilisation of GHG concentrations occurs between 2100 and [3][3] Ranges correspond to the 15 th to 85 th percentile of the post-TAR scenario distribution. CO 2 emissions are shown so multi-gas scenarios can be compared with CO 2 -only scenarios Stabilization level (ppm CO 2 -eq) Global mean temp. increase at equilibrium (ºC) Year CO2 needs to peak Year CO2 emissions back at 2000 level Reduction in 2050 CO2 emissions compared to – – to – – to – – to – – to – – to – – to +140

Basic Resources Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Climate Change 2007: Mitigation, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - The Scientific Basis, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report – Synthesis Report, National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program, Climate Change Impacts on the United States:The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change Overview: National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program, Climate Change Impacts on the United States:The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change Foundation: