NARCCAP Fourth Users’ Meeting Overview of Climate Change Results Linda O. Mearns National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO April 10 -11, 2012.

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Presentation transcript:

NARCCAP Fourth Users’ Meeting Overview of Climate Change Results Linda O. Mearns National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO April , 2012

A2 Emissions Scenario GFDLCCSM3HADCM3CGCM current future Provide boundary conditions MM5 Iowa State RegCM3 UC Santa Cruz CRCM Quebec, Ouranos HadRM3 Hadley Centre ECPC RSM Scripps WRF PNNL NARCCAP PLAN – Phase II CAM3 Time slice 50km GFDL Time slice 50 km

Temperature and precipitation changes with model agreement ( minus ) A1B Scenario

AOGCM-RCM Matrix GFDLCGCM3HADCM3CCSM3 MM5 XX1** RegCM X1**X** CRCM X1** X** HadRM X**X1** RSM X1** X WRF X**X1** *CAM3 X *GFDL X** 1 = chosen first GCM *= time slice experiments Red = run completed ** = data loaded AOGCMS RCMs

Global - CCSM3MM5 RCM WRF RCM CRCM Change in Winter Temperature CCSM3, 3 RCMs

Change in Summer Temperature CCSM-driven

CCSM CCSM-driven change in summer precipitation CRCM

CGCM3 Global Model CRCM CGCM - driven Change in Winter Temperature RegCM3 WRFG

CGCM3 – Global CRCM RegCM3 CGCM-driven % Change in Winter Precipitation WRFG

WRF

Change in Summer Temperature WRF

Bukovsky Regions

Southern Rocky Mountains

GFDL-driven Annual Temperature

Southern Rocky Mountains CRCM ΔP = - 8 % MM5 ΔP = -15% WRFG ΔP = - 3%

Bukovsky Regions

Deep South

Central Plains

East Taiga

Pacific NW

Pacific SW

A2 Emissions Scenario GFDL AOGCM NCAR CCSM3 Global Time Slice / RCM Comparison at same resolution (50km) Six RCMS 50 km GFDL AGCM Time slice 50 km CAM3 Time slice 50km compare

GFDL CM2.1 GFDL AM2.1 Future-current Summer Temperatures

RegCM3 in GFDL Change in Summer Temperature

RegCM3 in GFDL % Change Precip - Winter

THE END

Change in Precipitation (%) WinterSummerAnnualWinterSummerAnnual CRCM WRFG RCM MM5I North Atlantic CCSM3CGCM3 WinterSummerAnnualWinterSummerAnnual CRCM WRFG RCM MM5I Southern Rockies

Change in Temperature °C WinterSummerAnnualWinterSummerAnnual CRCM WRFG RCM MM5I North Atlantic CCSM3CGCM3 WinterSummerAnnualWinterSummerAnnual CRCM WRFG RCM MM5I Southern Rockies

Bukovsky Regions