1 Population, Rising Expectations, Aging, Mobility & Employment Presented at the General Assembly of the World Academy of Art & Science, Zagreb, Croatia, November 18-20, 2005

2 Population Blow-up Driving force for development is social & psychological, not biological or environmental The blow-up marks the transition from quantitative to qualitative development.

3 Social Development Process “Life evolves by consciousness. Consciousness evolves by organization.” Sri Aurobindo

4 Social Development Cycle Subconscious Will of the Social Collective Conscious Aspiration & Initiative of Pioneering Individuals Social Organization by Collective to Support & Replicate Initiatives

5 Some Evolutionary Organizations Language Military Religion Money

6 Social Development Spiral Physical Mental

7 Transition from Physical to Mental Evolution Physical replicationQualitative enhancement HeredityLearning Survival-orientationRising aspirations Social stabilityRapid development Material resourcesKnowledge resources Collective conformityEmergence of Individuality

8 Mental Organizations are Evolving Rapidly Education Science Technology Internet Values –Freedom –Respect for the individual

9 Source of all these organizations is the human mind, human resourcefulness.

10 Aspirations are Rising Rapidly Demographic Revolution coincides with a “Revolution of Rising Expectations”

11 Impact of Rising Expectations Youth want and demand more Quest for greater freedom Consumerism Education madness in Asia Urge for upward social mobility Smaller families resulting in shrinking of population in industrialized countries Impetus to mobility & immigration Education, training and social attitudes not changing fast enough to keep pace Source of social unrest & stimulus to terrorism

12 Impact on Employment Higher job expectations Indian youth with a little school education refuse farm work US youth shun factory work Skill-job mismatches High youth unemployment

13 Decline in Working Age Population REGION Europe (million) World (billion) Europe (% share) Rising aspirations results in smaller families and fewer new workers

14 Aging in High Income Countries More effective social organization supports longer life expectancy Over 60 years population will increase from 8% to 19% by 2050 Number of children will drop by 33%

15 Aging of Europe (EU25) Population over 65 years million million Over 65 to working age pop % % Working age population million million

16 Impact of Aging on Employment Significant labor and skill shortages will develop in OECD countries unless immigration policies are dramatically liberalized or large numbers of manufacturing and service jobs are shifted overseas.

17 Aging and Immigration (EU15) Shortage of workers spurs demand for workers from lower income countries. UN study released in March 2000 estimates EU15 would have to accept 150 million new immigrants over the next 25 years in order to maintain present levels of working and tax-paying population. Another estimate projects net inflow of 68 million.

18 USA By 2013, labour-force growth = 0 Forecasts shortage of 17 million working age people by 2020.

19 Japan 33 million people aged 65 or more within a decade UN estimates Japan would need to admit 600,000 immigrants annually for the next 50 years in order to maintain the size of its working population at the 1995 level.

20 China vs. India in 2020 China -- shortage of 10 million India -- surplus of 47 million

21 Population living outside country of birth 1985 – 105 million 2000 – 175 million (3% of world pop) 67% increase during period when total world population only increased by 26%.

22 International Migration To USA averaging about 1 million/year 2 million per year net gain to most- developed regions over the next 50 years.

23 UK Migration for Employment 1.44 million graduates left UK for higher paid jobs in US, Canada, Australia and EU 1.26 million graduates immigrated to UK in seach of better jobs. 16% UK graduates migrate vs. 3.4% in France (lowest)

24 Migration from Developing to OECD Countries Migrants to OECD with some college education almost doubled to about 12 million in 10 years 25-50% of college-educated of Ghana, Mozambique, Kenya, Uganda, Nicaragua and El Salvador live in OECD. 80%+ for Haiti and Jamaica 5%> for Brazil, China, India, Indonesia

25 India’s Reverse Brain Drain Non-residents spur transfer of technology and business practices. Non-residents spur growth of business back home. Exit of talents raises domestic salary scales. Non-residents are returning home. Non-resident remittances are major source of investment -- $8 billion a year.

26 Conclusions Rising expectations & rapid advances in social organization are driving the slow down in population growth & the aging of the population resulting in labor and skill shortages in OECD countries and opening up opportunities for migration and employment for developing countries. This phenomena marks the transition from the physical to the mental stage of social evolution.