INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION OUTLOOK JANUARY 2015 Jean-Christophe Dumont Head of International Migration Division Directorate for Employment Labour and Social Affairs OECD Recent trends in migration flows and policies in OECD countries

2 International Migration Outlook 2014

Recent trends in migration flows to OECD countries and in Europe

4 The migration landscape in the OECD is changing Evolution of international migration flows since 2000 (=100) Note: Settlement countries include Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States. “Other Europe” includes all European OECD countries apart from Germany, Italy and Spain. Source: OECD International Migration Database.

On average immigration represents 0.6% of the population Permanent immigration as a percentage of the population, 2012 Source: OECD International Migration Database.

6 Free mobility is the driver of changes in migration flows Permanent immigration in OECD countries by category, (millions) Source: OECD International Migration Database.

7 Germany driving the increase in free movement Migration within areas of free circulation in OECD countries Free movement migration flows to OECD countries have increased by a third since 2009… … and an increasing share of these migrants are choosing Germany Thousands Source: OECD International Migration Database.

Flows from Europe to Germany by region of origin Number of entries by semester (thousands) Source: DESTATIS, Germany.

Flows from Europe to the UK by country of origin Number of entries by fiscal year (thousands) (NINos) Source: Department for Work and Pensions, UK..

10 Massive drops in labour migration flows to Italy and Spain led to 40% drop for EU-OCDE countries as a whole. Reduced labour migration flows in crisis countries affected total flows Permanent labour migration to European OECD countries (thousands) Source: OECD International Migration Database.

11 Drops observed in 2011 and 2012 are due to the decline in seasonal workers Temporary migration has decreased continuously since the financial crisis Temporary migrants to OECD countries (thousands) Source: OECD International Migration Database.

12 Double numbers between 2000 and million foreign students enrolled in an OECD country in % of all foreign students in the world. Increasing student mobility More than half of international students in OECD countries come from Asia. China alone represents 22% Source: OECD Education Database.

13 Asylum seeking is reaching new highs New asylum seekers in OECD countries Thousands Growing share of Syrian citizens 3% 15% (1 st semester) Highest level in 10 years reached in 2013 Germany absorbed half of the increase in 2013 Source: OECD International Migration Database.

The labour market integration of immigrants in OECD countries

Migrant stocks remain well above pre-crisis levels in all countries Foreign-born population as a percentage of the total population, 2001 and 2012 Source: OECD International Migration Database.

11.3 million and 28% of all immigrants (15-64) in EU area are tertiary educated (+92% between 2000/ /11) A. Europe Source: DIOC 2010/11 Huge increase in the number of highly educated immigrants 11.1 million and 31% of all immigrants (15-64) in the US are tertiary educated (+47% between 2000/ /11) B. United States Source: DIOC 2010/11

Persisting large unemployment gaps in Europe Unemployment rates by gender and place of birth - EU, USA and CZE, ,8pp 4,1pp Source: EU Labour Force Surveys (European Union) and Current Population Surveys (United States).

Persisting large unemployment gaps in Europe Unemployment rates by gender and place of birth - EU, USA and CZE, ,8pp 4,1pp Source: EU Labour Force Surveys.

19 High-educated immigrants have lower employment rates Employment rates among the highly educated who are not in education, 2013 Note: The data for Canada, New Zealand and Turkey apply to the age group and may include people still in education. The data for Australia refer to the age group and may include people still in education. Source: European countries and Turkey: labour force surveys (Eurostat), 2013; Australia: Labour Force Survey 2012; Canada, New Zealand: Labour force surveys ; Chile: Encuesta de Caracterización Socioeconómica Nacional (CASEN) 2011; Israel: Labour Force Survey 2011; Mexico: Encuesta Nacional de Ocupación y Empleo (ENOE) 2013; United States: Current Population Surveys 2013.

20 When in employment, they are more often over-qualified Percent of employed highly-educated who are in a medium- or low-skilled job, 15-64, 2013 Note: Highly-educated corresponds to tertiary education. They are considered over-qualified if the job is classified as ISCO 4 to 9. (ISCO stands for International Standard Classification of Occupations.) Source: European countries and Turkey: Labour force surveys (Eurostat), 2013; Chile: Encuesta de Caracterización Socioeconómica Nacional (CASEN) 2011; Israel: Labour Force Survey 2011; New Zealand: Labour Force Survey 2012; United States: Current Population Survey 2013.

21 Part of the gaps in outcomes are due to lower literacy skills Mean literacy scores 16- to 64-year-old, 2012 Source: OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC), Gaps are observed across all education levels

Recent trends in migration policies in OECD countries

23 New approaches to labour migration management The recognition of foreign qualifications – both pre- and post-departure - is becoming a key element in labour migration and integration policies (for labour migration: AU, CA; for integration: AT, DE, SE,…) Policies making it easier for international students to remain and work after graduation are still on the rise (AT, CH, KR, SE, TR) Bilateral co-operation is increasing, particularly with respect to low-skilled migration (KR, IL; for seasonal: AU, CA, NZ) Training in the origin countries is also getting new attention (DE) o Expression of Interest systems which first create a pool of immigrants from which authorities and employers can pick are becoming wide-spread (AU, CA, NZ,…) o Investor visas are being adjusted to achieve real returns (AU, CA, UK) or offered for real estate/treasury bond investments in countries in crisis (ES, GR, IR, PT) o Increasing concerns regarding non-discretionary and undocumented migration

Expression of Interest (EoI)

Donation / Public debt €,$ Investment capital Business, Employment, innovation Property Growing interest/concerns regarding investor programmes USA, Netherlands, Germany, France, Chile, Canada Ireland, Spain Ireland, UK, Spain, Korea Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Greece, (Latvia)

Legal and undocumented non-discretionary /unmanaged migration raises concerns (again) Intra EU migration –Move in some countries to restrict benefit access for those with no employment history –Concern over “social dumping” in Norway, despite high employment rates –New EU Commissioner asked to review posted workers Unaccompanied minors –Record high levels of unaccompanied minors in a number of OECD countries (Mexico, USA, Sweden, Italy) Asylum seekers and refugees –New refugee reception systems being tested by a spike in arrivals (Hungary); implementation of new asylum processing system complicated by increased pressure (Greece) Illegal employment of foreigners –Ongoing trend towards transparency in work rights such as single permit in EU or more investment in electronic verification systems (USA, AUS)

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