Natural Gas Net-Export Trends A graphical review of the historical data. Jonathan Callahan Mazama Science M AZAMA S CIENCE Data – Information – Knowledge

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 2 Historical Data has Advantages Production and consumption data are freely available: BP Statistical Review, EIA, IEA Comparison between datasets gives an idea of the error bars. No assumptions are needed. Historical time series map out trends – zeroth order predictions. Historical data capture the Human Story: discoveries, accidents, wars, politics, economics, technology, environmental issues, etc.

Mazama Science 3 ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010 Telling Stories with Pictures Humans communicate by telling stories. Pictures help us tell those stories. Good data graphics allow us to “tell stories” with data.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 4 UK – Historical Gas Production 1970's – rising 1980's – stable 1990's – rapid rise 2000's – rapid fall

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 5 UK – Consumption 1970's – rising 1980's – slight increase 1990's – rising 2000's – slight decline

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 6 UK – Net Exports 1970's – self sufficient 1980's – stable imports 1990's – declining imports 2000's – increasing imports

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 7 A Sense of History “A careful reading of history clearly demonstrates... that people don't read history carefully.” Understanding Net Export trends means understanding production and consumption trends. Geology and technology set limits on production. But actual production and consumption depend on economics, politics and cultural values – human factors. Historical curiosity can help explain (and predict) a lot. “History doesn't repeat but she sure rhymes a lot.”

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 8 Data-driven story: Privatization vs. Polder

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 9 British policy emphasized “free market”. (1)1959 – first LNG from LA (2)1963 – LNG from Algeria (3)1967 – first North Sea gas (4)1986 – privatization (Gas Act) (5)1996 – market competition (6)2000 – peak production (7)2004 – net importer (8)2010 – Gas Balancing Alert

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 10 Dutch policy emphasized “small fields” first. Same geology, different policies → different outcomes.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 11 What does “peak production” look like?

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 12 Romania's decline from peak has been steady.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 13 Italy's production decline has been gradual.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 14 Is Argentina at peak production?

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 15 What about “peak exports” – the green bit?

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 16 Increased consumption can cause peak exports.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 17 Decreased production can cause peak exports.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 18 Is Indonesia at peak exports?

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 19 International Pipelines vs. LNG Pipelines Planning and construction take years International cooperation Right-Of-Way issues Constant delivery Transit nations Partners are locked in LNG Planning and construction take months National decision Coastal access required Intermittent delivery High seas Open market

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 20 Largest Net-Exporting Regions in 2008 #1Russia17 Bcf/day #2North Sea10 Bcf/day #3 North Africa 8 Bcf/day #4 SE Asia 7 Bcf/day #5Canada 6 Bcf/day #6 Central Asia 6 Bcf/day #7Middle East 5 Bcf/day #8 Sub-Saharan Africa 3 Bcf/day

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 21 Russian exports have remained steady. Huge reserves High levels of consumption Declining population Europe's biggest supplier Pipeline control battles 2012 Nord Stream pipeline 2015? South Stream pipeline

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 22 North Sea exports are expected to decline. Norway is ~80% of net- exports Very good data Lack of new discoveries Using latest technology Peak anticipated this decade

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 23 North African exports are growing. Algeria is ~60% of net-exports Huge reserves Population growth Modern development Higher levels of consumption Existing trans-med pipelines Existing LNG plants 2010 Medgaz pipeline 2011 new LNG plants and vessels

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 24 SE Asian exports appear to have peaked. Developing economies Past peak oil production Major coal users Close to huge LNG importers

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 25 Central Asian exports are growing. Huge reserves in Turkmenistan Landlocked region Existing Russian pipelines 2010 China-Turkmen pipeline 2015? Nabucco pipeline

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 26 Middle Eastern exports have peaked. Huge reserves Population growth Modern development Higher levels of consumption Increased desalination Oil fired power plants Regular power crises GCC power grid Petrochemical industry New pipelines and LNG terminals

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 27 Recognizing Patterns Reviewing historical trends leads to the following realizations: Production peaks can be sharp or very broad. Production is still rising in many countries. National consumption often follows production upward. Consumption can increase very rapidly. Consumption levels are “sticky” – decreases are strongly correlated with economic hardship. Pipelines and LNG pose different energy security issues.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 28 Factors affecting Production Growth Geology (UK) Technology (US) Government regulation (Netherlands) Market access (Turkmenistan) Financing (Venezuela)

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 29 Factors affecting Consumption Growth Gas displacing coal due to environmental concern. (EU) Fuel switching as oil production declines. (Indonesia) Inadequate water supply requires desalination. (Saudi Arabia) Increased demand due to population growth. (Pakistan) Increased consumption from higher living standards. (China)

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 30 Predictions for the next decade ( ). Global production will increase dramatically. Norway will reach both peak production and peak exports. The Middle East will reach peak exports. SE Asia will reach peak net exports. South America (including Trinidad) will become a net importer. China will become a huge net importer. LNG will become increasingly expensive. The UK Gas Balancing Alert will be triggered multiple times. ¿European piped gas could become increasingly expensive? Russia and Central Asia will remain inscrutable!!

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 31 For the Curious:

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 32 Blank Page

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 33 Story #2 – “Pipelines are not Fungible”

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 34 Story #3 – “Population Matters”

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 35 Story #3 – “Population Matters”

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 36 Blank Page

Global Coal The importance of China. Jonathan Callahan Mazama Science M AZAMA S CIENCE Data – Information – Knowledge

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 38 Who imports? Who exports?

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 39 Coal is increasingly important in the energy mix.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 40 North America is mostly self-sufficient in coal.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 41 Coal lags behind oil and gas in total energy.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 42 South America (Colombia) exports a little coal.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 43 Coal isn't very important in South America.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 44 Europe & Eurasia are using less and less coal.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 45 Coal has been replaced by oil and gas.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 46 The Middle East uses very little coal (in Iran).

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 47 Coal is insignificant in the energy mix.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 48 In Africa, only South Africa produces much coal.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 49 Energy mix reflects South Africa's dominance.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 50 Asian coal demand is large and rising.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 51 Coal completely dominates the energy mix.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 52 Asia accounts for 2/3 of world coal.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 53 Three Categories of Nations Australia and Indonesia are long term exporters. Japan, Korea and Taiwan are totally import dependent. China and India are largely self-sufficient. Asian coal supply and demand are currently in balance.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 54 Australia & Indonesia: major exporters

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 55 Japan & S. Korea: major importers

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 56 China & India: mostly self-sufficient

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 57 Self-sufficient … but on different scales.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 58 Long-term Trends Australia and Indonesia have only ever exported coal. Japan, Korea, Taiwan and India have only ever imported. China, the biggest producer and biggest consumer has flipped back and forth between exports and imports. What is China's role in the next-export balance?

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 59 China sits on the export/import fence.

ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 60 The Future is Uncertain – Three Scenarios: 1) Muddle Through: Chinese production meets Chinese demand (with help from Mongolia?) Australia and Indonesia meet other Asian demand. 2) Coal Shortage: China's coal-fired economic growth continues. Chinese demand outpaces Chinese production and they compete for imports. 3) Coal Glut: China's economy stumbles, reducing demand. China exports coal to keep people employed. It all depends on China.