DDGS Supply/Demand Outlook EPAC June
2010 DDGS Market Record Production Record Domestic Use Record export year –China Expanding Markets –Pacific Rim Countries –Expanded Capacity of PNW Myco-toxins
Supply
U.S. DDG Production and Exports
DDG Balance Table Carryin (Sep 1) Production13,95121,29426,42233,25337,31837,696 Imports Total Supply14,14221,43926,67333,66237,86838,246 Domestic Use12,36117,51821,70425,37829,86829,246 Exports1,7803,9214,9698,2838,5009,000 Total Use14,14121,43926,67333,66138,36838,246 Carryout (Aug 31) Export ratio12.8%18.4%18.8%24.9%22.8%23.9% X 1,000 Metric Tons
Demand Outlook
U.S. Cattle on Feed
U.S. Swine Industry Mycotoxin issues limited inclusion in 2010 Many buyers need to use DDG to profit from feeding at all Average inclusion of 30% in finishing rations, and 50% in gestation and lactation rations Recent usage at 60% in finishing rations
US Swine Industry Fastest growing user of DDG High priced corn and soybean meal persuades producers to higher inclusion rates $ per pound of gain DDG valued for its protein, energy, phosphorus, and intestinal health benefits
USDA U.S. Swine Industry
Pro Exporter
Exports
U.S. DDG Production and Exports
Export Table Country2009 YR2010 YR Jan/Mar 2010 Jan/Mar 2011 % Change Net Change World Total5,650,9648,998,0461,872,7922,019, ,084 China542,4242,528,697335,311323, ,897 Mexico1,458,4351,644,641439,485506, ,539 Canada819,7431,021,185254,205218, ,484 South Korea269,854506,475157,24770, ,450 Vietnam250,638431,133110,845118,10877,263 Turkey377,707395,22014,16027, ,069 Thailand297,545291,36453,53580, ,796 Ireland100,623275,06884,57766, ,851 Indonesia200,741252,08052,50550,309-42,196 Japan221,800217,53659,00157, ,052 In Metric Tons
FOB US GULF & CORN PRICES US Grains Council
China 2010 Imports up 466% from Imports currently down 4% Anti-Dumping Lawsuit against U.S. producers At current pace China will import 50% less than 2010
Mexico 2010 Imports up 11% Current 2011 imports up 18% High priced corn and freight advantage Lack of gulf demand led to increase export numbers Sorghum planting down 5%
Canada Consistently top 3 importer of DDG Imported 819,743 tons imported 1,021,085 tons –Up 24% from 2009
Exports Cont. South Korea –2010 Imports up 187% –Hoof and Mouth Disease 2011 imports down 55% Turkey –2010 imports up 5% –2011 up 92% –High growth potential GMO issues
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Product Transparency
Anticipated Specifications of Great Falls DDGS 36% to 42% protein 4% to 6% fat More Complete Amino Acid Profile Better handling Characteristics than corn DDGS
Ethanol
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Ethanol Production Margins
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