The Commodities Boom in North Asia Dr Helen B Bendall University of Technology, Sydney ICHCA 2008

Dr Helen B Bendall 2 World GDP Growth & World Exports

Dr Helen B Bendall 3 World Exports Volumes & Values (USD)

Dr Helen B Bendall 4 Asia’s Role in World Trade % Growth in Volume WorldXMXM AsiaXMXM ChinaXMXM Source: UNCTAD 2007

Dr Helen B Bendall 5 International Seaborne Trade Mt YearTankerDry Cargo * Main Bulks Total (All Cargoes) Source: UNCTAD 2007 * Main Bulks subset of Dry Cargo – iron ore, grain, coal, bauxite, alumina, phosphate

Dr Helen B Bendall 6 Major Coal Exporters 2006 Thermal, Metallurgical % World Share Source: UNCTAD 2007

Dr Helen B Bendall 7 Thermal Coal Imports Mt Imports % Change China Taiwan Japan South Korea Europe Other World Total Source: ABARE,2007

Dr Helen B Bendall 8 Thermal Coal Trade China Source: ABARE 2007 Mt

Dr Helen B Bendall 9 Thermal Coal Exports Mt Exports % Change Australia China Indonesia Russia South Africa Other Source: ABARE,2007

Dr Helen B Bendall 10 Metallurgical Coal Exports Mt Australia Canada USA Russian Federation World Tot Source; ABARE,2007

Dr Helen B Bendall 11 World Steel Producers 2006 Rank% World Share China133.4 Japan29.3 USA37.9 Russia45.7 South Korea53.9 Germany63.8 India73.5 Taiwan121.6 Source: MariTrade from IISI 2008

Dr Helen B Bendall 12 Metallurgical Coal Imports Mt E U Japan China South Korea Taiwan India Brazil World Tot Source: ABARE 2007

Dr Helen B Bendall 13 Australia’s Exports to North Asia Coal by Volume (Mt) Source: MariTrade / ABS 2008

Dr Helen B Bendall 14 Australian Coal Exports Value AUD’ % Change Japan9,013,3019,594, South Korea2,532,5991,934, Taiwan1,657,6111,652, Source: DFAT 2006

Dr Helen B Bendall 15 World Iron Ore Exporters % World Share Source: UNCTAD 2007 Australia Brazil

Dr Helen B Bendall 16 Iron Ore Exports Mt * Australia Brazil India Canada S Africa Sweden Source: ABARE 2007, *UNCTAD 2007,

Dr Helen B Bendall 17 Iron ore Imports Mt E U Japan China *442 South Korea Taiwan15 16 Source: ABARE 2007,*The Economist 2008

Dr Helen B Bendall 18 Australia’s Exports to North Asia Iron Ore by Volume (Tonnes) Source: MariTrade 2008

Dr Helen B Bendall 19 Bauxite Exporters Source: UNCTAD 2007

Dr Helen B Bendall 20 Bauxite - Alumina Exports Australia-North Asia in AUDm % growth China ,23418% Japan % DFAT 2007

Dr Helen B Bendall 21 Australian Aluminium Exports AUD m Source ABARE 2008

Dr Helen B Bendall 22 Alumina Importers/Exporters Importers Exporters

Dr Helen B Bendall 23 Aluminium Output YOY, M’ tonnes annualised Source: Lehman Brothers 2008

Dr Helen B Bendall 24 Copper Demand YOY, ‘000 Tonnes Source: Lehman Brothers 2008

Dr Helen B Bendall 25 Australia’s Exports to North Asia Copper by Volume (Mt) Source: MariTrade / ABS 2008

Dr Helen B Bendall 26 Stainless Steel Production and Nickel Cash Source: Lehman Brothers,2008

Dr Helen B Bendall 27 Nickel/Nickel Alloys Exports Australia - North Asia in AUDm % growth China , % Japan % South Korea % Taiwan % Source: DFAT 2007

Dr Helen B Bendall 28 Australian Nickel Exports Mt Source: MariTrade

Dr Helen B Bendall 29 Australian Wheat Exports North Asia in AUDm % growth China % Japan % South Korea % Taiwan % DFAT 2007

The Future Trade in Dry Bulk Commodities North Asia Up? Down?

Dr Helen B Bendall 31

Dr Helen B Bendall 32 Will commodity exporting countries, such as Australia, continue to ride on the bow wave of North Asian dry bulk carriers?

Dr Helen B Bendall 33 Uncertainties  World Economic Outlook  supply and demand for dry-bulk commodities  sub-prime fallout  Economic Outlook North Asia  South Korea  Japan  Economic Outlook China  inflation  “brownouts”  environmental concerns – air, water

Dr Helen B Bendall 34 World Largest Economies in 2050 by GDP Source: Goldman Sachs 2001 BRIC Economies Brazil Russia India China (including Japan)

Dr Helen B Bendall 35 Largest Regions by GDP in 2050 Source: Goldman Sachs 2001

Dr Helen B Bendall 36 GDP per Capita in 2050 Source: Goldman Sachs 2001

Dr Helen B Bendall 37 Wealthiest Countries per Capita 2015 in USD (base value 2000 USD) RankRegionCountry G7USA$37,715$46,918 2G7Japan$39,853$46,859 3AsiaH K$28,676$42,196 4AsiaSingapore$23,772$32,117 5AsiaSouth Korea$12,982$20,487 14Latin Am.Brazil$3,620$4,702 15EuropeRussia$2,430$3,965 20AsiaChina$1,274$2.384 Source: USDA 2000

Dr Helen B Bendall 38 Economic Outlook – South Korea % YOY Real GDP CPI Exports $s Imports $s Source: Lehman Brothers, May 2008

Dr Helen B Bendall 39 Economic Outlook - Japan % YOY Real GDP CPI Exports $s Imports $s Source: Lehman Brothers, May 2008

Dr Helen B Bendall 40 Australian Trade 2006/7 AUD Billion AFR 24/4/08

Dr Helen B Bendall 41 Economic Outlook - China % YOY Real GDP CPI (8.5% April 08) Industrial Production Exports $s Imports $s Source: Lehman Brothers May,2008,

Dr Helen B Bendall 42 China GDP % Growth Source: AFR April 2008

Dr Helen B Bendall 43 Economic Outlook - China % YOY Real GDP CPI (8.5% April 08) Industrial Production Exports $s Imports $s Source: Lehman Brothers May,2008

Dr Helen B Bendall 44 Real GDP % YOY China Hong Kong Japan South Korea Taiwan Source: Lehman Brothers,2008

Dr Helen B Bendall 45 Largest Controlled Fleets ‘000s DWT – 1 Jan 2007 Country of Domicile # of Ships Tonnage Rank Total % of World Japan 3, China 3, Hong Kong South Korea Taiwan World Total 34, % Source: UNCTAD/LR/Fairplay 2007

Dr Helen B Bendall 46 Asian Market Share of World Ships Dwt millions Source: Lloyds Register,,UNCTAD,2007.

Dr Helen B Bendall 47 Asian Bulk Carriers (Ex Japan) 1 Jan 2007 FlagBulk Carrier GT % of Total Fleet China9,227, North Korea160, Hong Kong17,909, South Korea5,845, Taiwan1,198, Source: UNCTAD 2007

Dr Helen B Bendall 48 Asian Percentage of World Fleet by Flag of Registration GT ’000s Bulk Carriers Container Ships General Cargo Oil Tankers Other Types Grand Total Total204,553110,68798,214213,74893,588720,789 Asia % Source: Lloyds Register, UINCTAD,2007

Dr Helen B Bendall 49 Australia Outlook % saar % YOY Real GDP Exports Imports Source: Lehman Brothers,2008

Dr Helen B Bendall 50 CPI % YOY China Hong Kong Japan South Korea Taiwan Source: Lehman Brothers,2008

Dr Helen B Bendall 51 Asia (ex-Japan) – Real GDP Source: Lehman Brothers 2008