HarvestPlus c/o IFPRI 2033 K Street, NW Washington, DC USA Tel: Fax: A Methodology for Prioritizing Countries for Biofortification Interventions Salomón Pérez S Dorene Asare-Marfo Ekin Birol Mourad Moursi Jana Schwarz Manfred Zeller

Introduction Micronutrient deficiency is a public health problem in many developing countries

Objectives 1.To build an index for biofortification intervention prioritization in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) 2.To prioritize countries for iron biofortification intervention (beans and pearl millet) 3.To prioritize countries for zinc biofortification intervention (rice and wheat) 4.To prioritize countries for vitamin A biofortification intervention (cassava, maize, sweet potato)

Conditions for H+ priority country Country must: 1.Produce the crop - a significant proportion of production must be used for domestic consumption 2.Consume much of the crop on a per-capita basis 3.Have a high level of micronutrient deficiency (vitamin A, Iron or zinc)  Saltzman et al. (2013)

Methodology The biofortification priority index (BPI) captures the three conditions with three sub-indices: 1.Production Index 2.Consumption Index 3.Micronutrient deficiency index

Production Index Shows intensity of crop production in country Variables:  Per capita area harvested (sqm per capita)  Share of area harvested allocated to crop (%)  Export share (%) Production Index = [1 – export share] [(0.5 x per capita area harvested ) + (0.5 x % land area allocated to crop )] Production Index = [1 – export share] [(0.5 x per capita area harvested ) + (0.5 x % land area allocated to crop )]

Consumption Index Measures the magnitude of per-capita consumption of crop in the country which is supplied by domestic production Variables:  Consumption per capita (kg/cap/year)  Import share (%) Consumption Index = Consumption per capita x (1-Import Share*) *Import share = Imports/(Production + Imports - Exports) Consumption Index = Consumption per capita x (1-Import Share*) *Import share = Imports/(Production + Imports - Exports)

Micronutrient Deficiency Index Describes the extent of micronutrient deficiency Variables for Vitamin-A deficiency index:  Proportion of preschool-age children with retinol < 0.7 μmol/l  Age-standardized DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants by VAD Vitamin A Deficiency Index = (0.5 x Proportion of preschool-age children with retinol < 0.70 umol/l) + ( 0.5 * Age-standardized DALYs per 100,00 inhabitants by VAD) Vitamin A Deficiency Index = (0.5 x Proportion of preschool-age children with retinol < 0.70 umol/l) + ( 0.5 * Age-standardized DALYs per 100,00 inhabitants by VAD)

Micronutrient Deficiency Index (cont.) Variables for Iron deficiency index:  Proportion of preschool-age children with Hb < 110 g/dl  Age-standardized DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants by IDA Iron Deficiency Index = + (0.5 x Proportion of preschool-age children with Hb < 110 g/l) + (0.5 x Age-standardized DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants by IDA) Iron Deficiency Index = + (0.5 x Proportion of preschool-age children with Hb < 110 g/l) + (0.5 x Age-standardized DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants by IDA)

Micronutrient Deficiency Index (cont.) Variables for Zinc deficiency index:  Percentage of population at risk of inadequate intake of zinc  Prevalence of stunting among children 6-59 months Zinc Deficiency Index = (0.5 x Percentage of population at risk of inadequate intake of zinc) + (0.5 x Prevalence of stunting) Zinc Deficiency Index = (0.5 x Percentage of population at risk of inadequate intake of zinc) + (0.5 x Prevalence of stunting)

Summary of Indices and variables used Sub-indexSource VariableData source Production IndexShare of area harvested (%)FAO 2010 Per-capita area harvested (in square meter per capita) FAO 2010 Export share (%)FAO 2010 Consumption Index Per-capita food consumptionFAO 2010 Import Share (%)FAO 2010 Micronutrient Deficiency Index SerumRetinol07WHO DALYs VADWHO 2002 Inadequate ZincZiNCG 2004 Hb<110WHO 2008 DALYs IDAWHO 2002 Stunting ZincWHO

Biofortification Priority Index BPI = (0.25 x Consumption Index) + (0.25 x Production Index) + (0.5 x Micronutrient Deficiency Index) BPI = (0.25 x Consumption Index) + (0.25 x Production Index) + (0.5 x Micronutrient Deficiency Index) HDI and PCA

Results - Top 10 BPI Ranking for LAC RankBeansMaize Sweet Potato CassavaRiceWheat 1 NicaraguaMexicoCubaParaguaySurinameGuatemala 2 BrazilGuatemalaJamaicaHaitiGuyanaUruguay 3 GuatemalaParaguayUruguayBrazilNicaraguaHonduras 4 El SalvadorHondurasMexicoBoliviaPeruBolivia 5 CubaEl SalvadorArgentinaJamaicaCubaPeru 6 HondurasHaitiPeru GuatemalaArgentina 7 GuyanaNicaraguaBoliviaMexicoHaitiEcuador 8 MexicoBoliviaParaguayColombiaDominican Republic Chile 9 PeruBrazilGrenadaDominican Republic EcuadorMexico 10 BoliviaBelizeSaint Vincent and the Grenadines VenezuelaPanamaBrazil

Results - Top 10 BPI Ranking for Africa RankBeansMaize Sweet Potato CassavaRiceWheat Pearl Millet 1 RwandaMalawiUgandaLiberiaSierra LeoneD. R. CongoNiger 2 BeninZambiaRwandaSierra LeoneMadagascarAngolaBurkina Faso 3 TanzaniaBeninMaliMozambiqueLiberiaEthiopiaGambia 4 UgandaSierra LeoneKenyaGhanaGuineaMozambiqueChad 5 TogoKenyaNigerAngolaGuinea-BissauBurundiSierra Leone 6 CameroonMaliTanzaniaBeninComorosMoroccoNigeria 7 KenyaZimbabweZambiaCARD. R. CongoZambiaGuinea- Bissau 8 ChadMozambiqueGhanaCongoMozambiqueRwandaSenegal 9 MalawiGuinea-BissauCôte d'IvoireGuinea-BissauGambiaMadagascarBenin 10 Sudan (former) AngolaSwazilandMalawiAngolaTanzaniaCAR

Results - Top 10 BPI Ranking for Asia RankBeansMaize Sweet Potato CassavaRiceWheat Pearl Millet 1 MyanmarTimor-LesteIndiaTimor-LesteBangladeshTajikistanNepal 2 IndiaBhutanChinaIndiaCambodiaTurkmenistanIndia 3 Nepal Sri LankaLaos AfghanistanMyanmar 4 CambodiaAfghanistanIndonesiaPhilippinesMyanmarUzbekistanYemen 5 North KoreaLaosBangladeshCambodiaViet NamTurkeyPakistan 6 KyrgyzstanNorth KoreaPakistanIndonesia KazakhstanSyria 7 Timor-LesteIndiaMalaysiaMyanmarThailandAzerbaijanNorth Korea 8 YemenPhilippinesSri LankaPhilippinesPakistanSri Lanka 9 BangladeshUzbekistan ThailandNorth KoreaBangladeshSaudi Arabia 10 IndonesiaGeorgia Viet NamSri LankaNorth KoreaKazakhstan

BPI for Beans and Rice in LAC

BPI for Cassava and Sweet Potato in LAC

Weighing the BPI Population Weight BPI: The country weight is calculated as the country’s rural target population share in “global” rural target population Area - share Weight BPI: For each crop, the area- share weighted BPI is calculated as the country’s share of area harvested in “global” area harvested for the respective crop “Target population” - Women in childbearing age and children 6-59 months (latter variable proxied by 0-59 months) “Global” countries in our database (all countries in Africa, Asia and LAC, except high-income OECD countries)

Unweighted vs. Weighted BPI: Global Ranks Compared

Unweighted vs.Weighted BPI for Maize in LAC

Limitations of the BPI Lack of data for some countries (assumptions for replacing missing values, e.g. micronutrients – Wessels et al. (2012)) Aggregated national level data but concept can be easily adapted using spatially disaggregated/ nationally representative micro-level data BPI does not explicitly tell us about costs of DALYs saved through biofortification, but uses proxy indicators for variables being part of the cost- benefit-function for DALYs saved thru biof.. Arbitrary weights (similar to GHI and HDI)

Strengths of BPI/Conclusions BPI allows for cross-country prioritization w.r.t. to H+ crops BPI is not sensitive (i.e. robust) to changes in the weights for micronutrient deficiency index compared to consumption/production index Reassured that wheat and rice for Asia; Beans, sweet potato and cassava for Africa and LAC; Maize and Pearl Millet for Africa Need to examine weighted and unweighted BPIs to get a better picture

Thank you

Variable scaling (0-1) All variables were rescaled to a range between 0 and 1 by applying the next formula: Rescaled value = actual value-minimum value maximum value-minimum value