Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of.

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Presentation transcript:

Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington for presentation at Fifth IHP/IAHS George Kovacs Colloquium UNESCO, Paris 2 June 2000

Outline of this talk

Modeling the Connections Between Climate and Streamflow

Currently Modeled US Basins 1 Northwest5 Rio Grande10 Upper Mississippi 2 California6 Missouri11 Lower Mississippi 3 Great Basin7 Arkansas-Red12 Ohio 4 Colorado8 Gulf13 East Coast 9 Great Lakes

Long-Lead Climate Forecast ENSO PDO Run Initialized Hydrologic Model Ensemble Streamflow Forecast Select Met Data Ensemble from Historic Record Associated with Forecast Climate Category Schematic for Forecasting Experiments Using Resampled Observed Data

PDO/ENSO Effects Columbia PDO EffectsColumbia ENSO Effects

PDO/ENSO Effects Chester Morse PDO EffectsChester Morse ENSO Effects

Time Line for 12-month Lead Time Retrospective Forecasts Climate Forecast Estimated Initial Conditions Forecast Ensemble Lead time = 12 months

Columbia River Streamflow Forecast at The Dalles for 2001 Highest Simulation ( ) Lowest Simulation ( ) Cool PDO/ENSO Neut. Ensemble

Cool PDO/Cool ENSO Ensemble Columbia River Streamflow Forecast at The Dalles for 2000

Global Climate Models Regional Climate Models Hydrology Models Water Resources Models Overview of Streamflow Forecasting Schemes Using Climate Models water demand streamflow Temp. Precip. wind downscaling

Oct Nov May DecFebMarApr JunJul... Repeating 1960 Observed Temp and Precip Time Series with Nov-April Replaced by MM5 Forecasts MM5 Sim Constructing the Hydrology Model Driving Data Using a Normal SST Nov-Apr Climate Forecast MM5 Sim 24 MM5 Forecasts... Jan 1960

Control (observed Nov-Apr’s) RCM (raw climate simulations for Nov-Apr’s) Test Simulations for the Columbia River at The Dalles

Mean Variance Simple Bias Correction Used in MM5 Experiments (Nov-Mar Ensembles inserted in repeating 1960)

Quantile Mapping Bias Correction

Mean Variance Kanawha River Basin Simulations Using Observed Data and Bias Corrected GCM Output Observations Bias-Corrected GCM

Downscaled GSM forecast ensembles compared to historical climatological bounds

1 Ohio 3 Delaware 4 Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa 2 Potomac 5 Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint Current Streamflow Forecast Basins

Climate Scenarios Transient GCM Simulations for Increasing CO2 and Aerosols Adjustments To Observed Meteorology Delta Precip, Temp Hydrologic Model (VIC) Natural Streamflow Reservoir Model (ColSim) DamReleases, Regulated Streamflow Performance Measures Reliability of System Objectives

2025

2045

ColSim Reliability of System Objectives