You Make the Call!: (Leslie Wanek and David Brown) x3! …Jaret Rogers and SPC’s David Bright Workshop: David Craft, Valerie Scheele, Paul Iniguez, Jessica Nolte, Gregory Harris and all the presenters/partners of SAWS.

Customer Needs and Service Innovation - analyzing the forecast process: Who is your customer? What is most important to them? How can you serve them best?

Customer Needs and Service Innovation - analyzing the forecast process: Who is your customer? What is most important to them? How can you serve them best? Where will the impact be? When will “events” occur?

Customer Needs and Service Innovation - analyzing the forecast process: Who is your customer? What is most important to them? How can you serve them best? Where will the impact be? When will “events” occur?

1 st Briefing – SuperBowl XLII FAA/Homeland Security

Who? What? How? Phoenix WFO AFD outline: Identify primary customers and their concerns Identify most significant hazards to emphasize

 Some important customers/partners: ARTCCs, ATCTs, TRACONs, AFSSs, FBOs, Nat./Reg. Airlines, GA, Military, ???  Required Weather Information (NWS Directive Support to Air Traffic Control Facilities) – not limited to: Convective weather including thunderstorm timing, tops, movement, intensity, and character such as broken and solid lines or large clusters Operationally significant ceilings/visibility, cloud tops Winds and temperatures (surface and aloft), wind shear Operationally significant pressure changes Precipitation Turbulence Icing Volcanic ash

 Some important customers/partners: ARTCCs, ATCTs, TRACONs, AFSSs, FBOs, Nat./Reg. Airlines, GA, Military, ???  Required Weather Information (NWS Directive Support to Air Traffic Control Facilities) – not limited to: Convective weather including thunderstorm timing, tops, movement, intensity, and character such as broken and solid lines or large clusters Operationally significant ceilings/visibility, cloud tops Winds and temperatures (surface and aloft), wind shear Operationally significant pressure changes Precipitation Turbulence Icing Volcanic ash

2 nd Brief – Tuesday Morning 22/15Z

Zonal Flow

SNEAK PEEK!!!!!!

2 nd Brief – Tuesday Morning 22/15Z Pueblo WFO AFD outline: Who will be affected? What might occur?

Southern Rockies:  With broad zonal flow across the Rockies, occasional moderate mountain wave turbulence should be expected  Mountain wave most likely over and up to 500 miles east of north-south oriented ranges (perpendicular to flow)  Hot spots include areas east of the Colorado Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains in NE NM  Traffic flow will likely move through this region regardless of moderate turbulence (re-route if reliably severe)

3 rd Brief – Monday Evening 29/00Z

ZAB CWSU Partner Briefing (freeform): What kind of useful information might we be able to provide to Air Traffic Managers?

Model trends:  Stronger trough  Spaghetti is significantly more coordinated, indicates greater forecast confidence  GFS (bold dark height contour) shows consistency over one week period with trough depth/position  GFS shows a more progressive pattern than other models

4 th Brief – Saturday Evening 03/00Z

...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN CA TO GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS... SHOWERS AND SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED AS STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREAD EWD ACROSS NV/AZ TO FOUR CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MAIN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

PHX

4 th Brief – Saturday Evening 03/00Z ZAB CWSU Partner Briefing (freeform): What kind of ATC problems would the 80kt jet at FL180 induce? Who would be affected?

+80kt jet at FL180 from Blythe, CA to Phoenix, AZ:  Low-mid level occasional moderate turbulence, particularly over and east of mountain terrain  Compression along ARLIN approach to PHX!

5 th Brief – Sunday Evening 03/2330Z

PHX Aviation Forecaster: Write your 04/00Z TAF

PHX

KPHX GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/03/ UTC DT /FEB 4 /FEB 5 /FEB 6 HR N/X TMP DPT CLD BK BK BK OV OV BK OV BK SC SC CL CL CL CL CL FW FW CL CL CL SC WDR WSP P P Q Q T06 6/ 1 5/ 3 3/ 0 6/ 0 4/ 0 1/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 3 0/ 0 0/ 0 T12 5/ 3 6/ 0 1/ 0 0/ 3 0/ 0 POZ POS TYP R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R SNW 0 0 CIG VIS OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

1 = ceiling height of < 200 feet; 2 = ceiling height of feet; 3 = ceiling height of feet; 4 = ceiling height of feet; 5 = ceiling height of feet; 6 = ceiling height of ,000 feet; 7 = ceiling height of > 12,000 feet;

5 th Brief – Sunday Evening 03/2330Z PHX Aviation Forecaster: Write your 04/00Z TAF

5 th Brief – Sunday Evening 03/2330Z PHX Aviation Forecaster: Write your 04/00Z TAF A good start: KPHX Z G23KT P6SM SCT050 BKN080 FM0600…

KPHX Z VRB05G28KT P6SM SCT070 BKN090 FM G32KT SCT070 BKN090 FM G22KT SCT060 BKN090 FM KT P6SM SCT060 BKN090 FM KT P6SM FEW050 BKN100 FM KT P6SM BKN100 FM KT P6SM FEW045 BKN065 BKN100 FM KT P6SM BKN065 BKN090 BKN110 FM G23KT P6SM BKN060 BKN075 BKN100 FM KT P6SM FEW035 SCT060 BKN100 FM KT P6SM FEW030 SCT065 BKN080 FM KT P6SM SCT033 BKN100 BKN110 FM KT P6SM FEW033 SCT045 BKN070 FM KT P6SM FEW030 BKN041 BKN100 FM KT P6SM FEW040 OVC060 FM KT 4SM –RA BR BKN029 OVC040 FM KT P6SM SCT032 BKN040 BKN080 TEMPO KT 6SM –RA BR FEW027 BKN030 OVC040 FM KT P6SM –RA SCT032 BKN040 BKN080 FM KT P6SM FEW027 BKN034 BKN043 FM KT P6SM SCT045 BKN075 BKN100 TEMPO G31KT P6SM TSRA FEW030 BKN035CB BKN080 FM KT P6SM SCT026 BKN035 BKN090 FM1800 VRB03KT P6SM FEW055 BKN090 BKN110

KPHX Z G30KT P6SM SCT070 BKN090 FM KT P6SM SCT050 BKN100 FM G23KT P6SM BKN060 FM KT P6SM SCT035 BKN100 FM KT P6SM –RA BR SCT025 BKN040 OVC080 TEMPO KT 5SM –RA BR BKN030 OVC040 FM KT P6SM SCT045 BKN075 BKN100 TEMPO G31KT P6SM TSRA FEW030 BKN035CB BKN080 FM1800 VRB03KT P6SM BKN090

KPHX Z G23KT P6SM SCT050 BKN080 FM KT P6SM SCT035 BKN100 FM KT 5SM –RA BR BKN030 OVC050 FM KT P6SM SCT045 BKN075 BKN100 TEMPO G31KT P6SM TSRA BKN035CB FM KT P6SM SCT090

What did we learn? 1. Primary customers and concerns 2. Address aviation-specific wx concerns 3. Communicate increased forecast confidence 4. Aviation-specific wx forecast criteria 5. Practical “event” TAF concepts

Customer Needs and Service Innovation - analyzing the forecast process: Who is your customer? What is most important to them? How can you serve them best? Where will the impact be? When will “events” occur?

Matt Lorentson ZAB Center Weather Service Unit (505)