West Coast Breakout. Status of west coast project ORCA –Field intensives & data synthesis completed in wildfires, thinning, woody encroachment studies.

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Presentation transcript:

West Coast Breakout

Status of west coast project ORCA –Field intensives & data synthesis completed in wildfires, thinning, woody encroachment studies –Remote sensing disturbance maps (30 yr change detection) of NCA to be assessed –3 EC tower sites, 5 precision CO 2 sites –Ran Biome-BGC 30 yr over OR, and will run model over NCA –Top-down model testing (STILT, CFLUX model with disturbance and moisture effects on respiration and GPP) S CA –Focus on natural C budgets, recent years –Remote sensing mapping of logging on public lands, agric SCA –6 EC tower sites established in S-CA 2006 (9 total in CA) –ran CASA over CA –Modeling interannual variability in emissions transport (fire, fossil)

What are the critical knowledge gaps? Ecosystem impacts of climate change (decline, insect outbreaks). Plan for this aspect in future process modeling, analysis. –Crown mortality via remote sensing Standing dead…after wildfire, insect outbreaks can persist for decades, but prognostic models assume killed trees start to decompose immediately. –Need data on fall rates –Could quantify necromass spatially (lidar/optical fusion), locally

What synthesis and integration activities can help address knowledge gaps? Treatment of uncertainty in measurements and models –CASA: Monte-Carlo simulation with defined pdf –Use model intercomparison to address uncertainty of estimates (patterns of model- model residuals) – where do they agree, disagree and why?

Formal intercomparisons of forward modeling methods –Compare SCA CASA with ORCA Biome-BGC approach –Compare SCA CASA with C. Potter’s continental CASA

Comparison of forward and inverse modeling methods Included in ORCA concept Compare ORCA top-down to CASA results

What are the next steps to move forward? Data-model comparisons, remote sensing error assessment in CA: Compare CASA model results with ORCA field thinning study in NCA (NPP and NEP) ORCA determined fire emissions and carbon transformations from inventory data (before and after). Goulden group will explore doing the same for CA fires to compare with CASA emissions estimates Compare age/disturbance maps from ORCA (all lands) with UC (logging on public lands, agric. crops) in overlap area Bill Riley, Marc Fischer provide fossil emissions mapping CarbonTracker for background CO 2

Important Issues - Top-Down Top-down component requires continued precision CO 2 measurements – incoming air from Pacific, into Great Basin Need additional technician for calibrations Link with offshore sampling (need similar CO 2 system onboard) Possibility of adding similar W-E transect of sites in SCA (Schimel) Need intercalibration activity similar to AmeriFlux (roving system, shipped cal stds)