Grain Market Update / Strategy West Midlands Group 7 March 2014 Ryan Duane Farmanco

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FARMANCO Agenda Market update WA Harvest Summary Strategy Questions

FARMANCO Market Update

FARMANCO WA Harvest

FARMANCO WA Harvest

FARMANCO WA Harvest

FARMANCO Shipping capacity in WA PortProduction (mmt)Annual Capacity (mmt) ALBANY (150%) ESPERANCE (135%) GERALDTON (83%) KWINANA** (100%)

FARMANCO WA Harvest

FARMANCO Basis

FARMANCO Strategy 1.Are prices profitable 2.Are prices “good” or “bad”? 3.Market outlook 4.How much time do you have? 5.Products that fit

FARMANCO Wheat Chart

FARMANCO Wheat Frequency Table

FARMANCO Feed Barley chart

FARMANCO Feed Barley Frequency

FARMANCO Canola chart

FARMANCO Canola Frequency

FARMANCO Products “ Good” prices -Happy to risk prices going higher later to lock in profitable price now -CASH or SWAPS “Bad” prices -Happy to risk downside for hope of upside later -POOLS -WAREHOUSE (or no sales) -OPTIONS / SWAPS (eg basis)

FARMANCO Strategy Forward SalesHarvest SalesPost-Harvest Sales Take production risk if prices profitable enough to justify Sell if prices profitable or historically high Or for cash flow… Hold grain if -Market view bullish longer term -Harvest prices historically low

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FARMANCO Wheat S & D Australia

FARMANCO 13/14 ALB Basis

FARMANCO 12/13 ALB Basis

FARMANCO 11/12 ALB Basis

FARMANCO 10/11 ALB Basis

FARMANCO 09/10 ALB Basis

FARMANCO POOL Performance SeasonHarvest Cash ($/t FIS) MarketFinal Pool Result ($/t FIS) 2009/10$225 Rallied $100/t over life of pools in 2010 $ /11$350 Prices fell significantly $ /12$240 Rallied significantly over 2012 $240