© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B Speaker Name | Speaker Title March 2013 GAME ANALYSIS: Top 25 Zones of Future Innovation

© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B Catalysts for Change Introduction: From a Map, to a Game, to 25 Future Zones of Innovation 2

© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B 3 On April 3-5, 2012, the Rockefeller Foundation collaborated with Institute for the Future (IFTF) to run a first-of-its-kind global forecasting game called Catalysts for Change. The goal of the online game was to convene people from all over the world to address the problems of poverty and specifically to identify innovative approaches to addressing those problems. The game was a follow on global engagement to the Catalysts for Change: Paths out of Poverty map that IFTF created to translate a two-year collection of global newsletters from the Rockefeller Foundation’s Searchlight Partners network beginning in What follow is an analysis of the game output, which contains more than 18,000 micro-forecasts from over 1,600 players in 79 different countries.

© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B 4 Introduction Table of Contents: Phase 1 gives a brief overview of the Catalysts for Change: Paths out of Poverty map. Phase 2 provides an overview of the Catalysts for Change game and launch event. Phase 3 dives into the Catalysts for Change analysis, providing an overview of the process taken to extract 25 future zones of innovation from 18,000+ micro- forecasts from around the world.

© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B Catalysts for Change: Paths out of Poverty Map Introduction | Phase 1, the Map explore the the online map: The Catalysts for Change map identifies four key catalysts: new evidence, new capacities, new rules, and new stories. For each of these catalysts, the map highlights several action zones and a core challenge, as well as signals of innovation and change drawn from the Searchlight newsletters.

© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B explore the the online map: 6 Introduction | Phase 1, the Map

© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B players 79 countries 18,000+ micro-contributions Catalysts for Change 48-hour micro-forecasting game | April 3–5, Introduction | Phase 2, the Game

© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B Game Launch Event San Francisco | April 3, 2012 Panelists (from right to left): hosted by the Rockefeller Foundation President Dr. Judith Rodin; game designer Jane McGonigal; Deputy Innovation Officer, city of San Francisco Shannon Spanhake; co- founder of the Electronic Frontier Foundation, Mitch Kapor. Introduction | Phase 2, the Game Launch 8 IFTF convened a face-to-face gathering of approximately 75 thought leaders and social activists from Silicon Valley and the San Francisco Bay Area to engage in a conversation on the future of global development. The event was streamed to the web, allowing game players from around the world to join the conversation virtually and pose questions to the Rockefeller Foundation’s president, Dr. Judith Rodin, and her panel.

© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B Game Analysis, Top 25 Zones of Future Innovation: from 18,000+ to 300+ micro-forecasts 9 18,000 + Introduction | Phase 3, Game Analysis

© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B The entire set of 18,000+ cards was analyzed using four different filtering systems in order to identify dynamic opportunities to build resilience and growth with equity from within the game: –Catalysts for Change Action Zones from the original map Innovative Tracking; Participatory Maps and Models; Alternative Indexes; User-Generated Media; Smart Communities; Up- skilled Workers; Resilient Cities; New Water Ecologies; Reinvention of Governance; Regional Coordination; Public- Private States; Virtual Nations; Post-industrial Farming; Pro- poor Innovation; Next-generation Women; Leapfrog Energy –Connection to to resilience and equitable growth, along with a set of issues associated with cities, health, livelihoods, and ecosystems. –Word frequency analysis to look at the most used and least used words throughout gameplay. –Filtered by region, extracting innovative opportunities based on what regions the cards were played from. Each of these filtering methods led to a subset of cards that were read through by multiple IFTF researchers who pulled out the most interesting and innovative ideas. This process generated a list of just over 300 cards. 10 Game Analysis from 18,000+ to 300+

© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B 11 Word frequency word cloud of the four analysis filters, generated with Tagxedo

© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B Game Analysis, Top 25 Zones of Future Innovation: from 300+ micro-forecasts to 25 future innovations Introduction | Phase 3, Game Analysis

© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B 13 The subset of 300+ cards were scored according to how well they met selection criteria previously defined by IFTF and the Rockefeller Foundation. The full set of cards were scored by six IFTF researchers and three international game guides from the Catalysts for Change game located in India, Mexico, and Nigeria. This ranking system was used as a guide to ensure the most consistently innovative ideas were included in the final analysis. During a 2-day internal workshop IFTF researchers, along with the Rockefeller Foundation, clustered the top innovative cards in order to pull the big stories. The top 25 future zones of innovation were born out of these clusters. Game Analysis from 300+ to 25

© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B These ideas focus specifically and directly on the innovative by …suggesting an area of practice receiving little or no attention at present pushing the boundaries of an existing practice in new directions combining two or more areas of practice in a novel way leveraging new technology or science to reframe a problem or practice engaging expertise from nontraditional or unexpected sources and disciplines with previously untapped potential for development impact suggesting new, innovative ways to finance poverty alleviation projects creating new kinds of calls to action to participate in poverty alleviation using natural, human, man-made, and financial resources in new, creative, or unique ways creating new platforms, tools, and interfaces for engaging diverse populations with poverty alleviation efforts 14 © 2013 Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share-Alike 3.0 United States License. SR-1563B Top Innovation Selection Criteria: innovation Game Analysis from 300+ to 25

© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B These ideas not only focus on the innovative but also on ways to promote more future proof strategies by… becoming more important as a result of future social, economic, scientific, or environmental developments having the potential to be self-sustaining potentially having large-scale unexpected impacts considering inclusive design principles into the design being potentially implementable across diverse regions, cultures, and demographics empowering communities to solve their own problems in new ways promoting self-regulation of development systems, communities, or organizations involving new categories of communities or people that are overlooked 15 © 2013 Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share-Alike 3.0 United States License. SR-1563B Top Innovation Selection Criteria: future proof Game Analysis from 300+ to 25

© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B Game Analysis, Top 25 Zones of Future Innovation Introduction | Phase 3, Game Analysis

© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B 17 Each of the 25 future zones of innovation has 4 components: A description of the future innovation A brief description of what the players said A dynamic map view of the most relevant cards played from around the world during the gam Signals to help bring these future zones of innovation to life. Two international game guides from Mexico and Nigeria provided local signals of innovation, adding to the global perspective of the analysis. A signal is typically a small or local innovation or disruption that has the potential to grow in scale and geographic distribution. A signal can be a new product, a new practice, a new market strategy, a new policy, or new technology. It can be an event, a local trend, or an organization. In short, it is something that catches our attention at one scale and in one locale and points to larger implications for other locales or even globally. 25

© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B Top 25 Future Zones of Innovation 13 | Economies of Time 14 | Networked Commerce 15 | Poverty Hedging 16 | Global Diaspora Services 17 | Distributed Corruption Reporting 18 | Connected Prisons 19 | A Sporting Chance 20 | Emotion Mapping 21 | Virtual Community Modeling 22 | Data Sales 23 | Glocal Learning Quests 24 | Mobile Micro-Learning 25 | Amplified Storytelling 1 | Living Infrastructures 2 | Gameful Cities 3 | Adaptive Shelters 4 | Hyper-Urban Farming 5 | Rural Youth Stewards 6 | Open Source Development Kits 7 | Peer-to-Peer Energy Sales 8 | Resource Routing 9 | "Know Your Line Worker” 10 | Self-Sourced Software 11 | Homemade Hardware 12 | GPP-Gross Printed Product 18