Skinner, Sureka, Yan1
Recap: Sector Weighting Financials are underweighted by 610 BPs Skinner, Sureka, Yan2
Recommendation for Sector Increase SIM Holdings by 400BPs But, still keep it underweight relative to S&P500 We are bullish for long run and bearish for short run Real Estate-Avoid; Regional Banks- trading at attractive multiples Regional Banks will benefit from long term growth Skinner, Sureka, Yan3
Current Holdings in Financials Skinner, Sureka, Yan4 Stock% of sector % of portfolio Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) 24.1%2.3% Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) 10.4%1.0% Hudson City Bancorp Inc. (HCBK) 17.5%1.6% JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) 20.4%1.9% Visa Inc. (V)27.7%2.6% Total100%9.4%
Recommendations Purchase 250 bps of TCB Purchase 250 bps of GS (provided price stays below 180) Sell Visa Hold position in BRK, HCBK and JPM Should bring us underweighting of 200bps* Skinner, Sureka, Yan5 * If we don’t sell V to fund
TCF Financial Corporation (NYSE:TCB) Financial Holding Company The Company’s businesses include retail and small business banking, commercial banking, consumer lending, leasing and equipment finance, and inventory finance. TCF Bank operates bank branches in Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, Colorado, Wisconsin, Indiana and Arizona. The segments of the Company are banking, and leasing and equipment finance. In August 2008, the Company announced the creation of a new subsidiary, TCF Inventory Finance, Inc. Skinner, Sureka, Yan6
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) Bank holding company and global investment banking, securities and investment management firm that provides services worldwide to corporations, financial institutions, governments and high-net-worth individuals. Its activities are divided into three segments: Investment Banking, Trading and Principal Investments, and Asset Management and Securities Services. Skinner, Sureka, Yan7
Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) Visa Inc. operates a retail electronic payments network. The Company facilitates global commerce through the transfer of value and information among financial institutions, merchants, consumers, businesses and government entities. Primary customers are financial institutions, for which it provides product platforms encompassing consumer credit, debit, prepaid and commercial payments. The Company owns a family of payment brands, including Visa, Visa Electron, PLUS and Interlink, which it licenses to its customers for use in their payment programs. It manages and promotes its brands through advertising, promotional and sponsorship initiatives, and by card usage and merchant acceptance. Skinner, Sureka, Yan8
TCB Key driver of future profitability is credit loss provisions. % Modeled at 25% in 2009 Decreasing by 5% each year and reaches 5% steady state Historically has been below 2% Skinner, Sureka, Yan9
Other Important Factors Company operates in the Midwest Poor lending environment exposure is in Michigan Small exposure to Arizona Price was depressed from 2008 financial crisis but didn’t experience the same increases in 2009 as large cap financials Didn’t have a net loss in 2008 or 2009 Skinner, Sureka, Yan10
Skinner, Sureka, Yan11
% Upside Sensitivity Analysis 12Skinner, Sureka, Yan
TCB Ratio Analysis 13Skinner, Sureka, Yan Absolute BasisHighLowMedianCurrent P/Forward E P/B P/S ROE Relative to SectorHighLowMedianCurrent P/Forward E P/B P/S ROE
Goldman Sachs—Facts Currently holding 1,000 shares Last purchased at $ Current Price $ Target Price $ Skinner, Sureka, Yan14
Goldman Sachs—Earnings Skinner, Sureka, Yan15
Goldman Sachs – Key Driver Trading and Principal Investments $10.03 Billion FICC 5.99 Billion Equities 2.78 Billion Principle Investments 1.26 Billion Skinner, Sureka, Yan16
Goldman Sachs – Expenses Operating Expenses $7.58 Billion C & B 5.35 Billion Non-Compensation 2.23 Billion Provision for Taxes 32.2% Skinner, Sureka, Yan17
Goldman Sachs - Ratios Skinner, Sureka, Yan18 Absolute BasisHighLowMedianCurrent P/Forward E P/B P/S ROE Relative to SectorHighLowMedianCurrent P/Forward E P/B P/S ROE
Skinner, Sureka, Yan19
VISA Inc. Visa Inc. is currently 27.7% with respect to sector and 2.6% with respect to SIM portfolio. We would like to sell VisaWhy?... Approaching its fair value of $81.40 Skinner, Sureka, Yan20
Visa Inc. DCF Inc. DCF 21Skinner, Sureka, Yan
Visa Inc. Ratios Skinner, Sureka, Yan22 Relative to Industry HighLowMedianCurrent P/Trailing E P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF EntValue/EBITDA Relative to S&P 500 HighLowMedianCurrent P/Trailing E P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF EntValue/EBITDA
Recommendations Summary CompanyCurrent Weights (bps) Buy/Sell/HoldProposed Weights (bps) Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 230HOLD230 Goldman Sachs Group Inc. 100BUY350 Hudson City Bancorp Inc. 160HOLD160 JP Morgan Chase & Co. 190HOLD190 TCF Financial Corporation -BUY250 Visa Inc.260Sell0 Total Skinner, Sureka, Yan23 * If needed to fund purchases otherwise Hold.
Questions? Skinner, Sureka, Yan24