Why you shouldn’t trust an early adopter Using tomorrow's consumers to create tomorrow's concepts

Too much new product research is a waste of money because it talks to the wrong people

x _ - 2sd LEAD CONSUMERS 2.5%x _ x _ - sd x _ + sd16% 34% 13.5% Key Adopter Categories. Source: Rogers (1995) Diffusion of Innovations Early Adopters Innovators Early Majority Laggards Late Majority mass market followers Not all consumers are equal - most consumers are followers…

…so they are of little use in indicating where the market is heading Followers’ opinions are based on those of others…

So, I need to talk to early adopters, right? Product Adopters Early Majority, pragmatists Late Majority, conservatives Innovators, enthusiasts Time Laggards, skeptics Early Adopters, visionaries Well, yes, but… The adoption “chasm” Source: Moore, 1999

Talking to Early Adopters is not the final answer… Early Adopters… …all too often Early Abandoners Their interest in a new product is often a passing whim -based primarily on its novelty value -once the novelty has worn off so does their interest For this reason Early Adopters can be as much Fad Creators as they can be Trend Creators Is there a better definition of the elusive ‘Lead Consumer’?

a few key consumers drive diffusion… a special kind of early adopter: Connectors A step in the right direction:

                                           Connectors Connected early adopters Hubs of social networks Gatekeepers to product diffusion Connect you to your mass market

But this is still not enough….. It takes more than a curiosity in new things and the connectedness to spread new ideas before an individual can truly be considered influential in any long-term, meaningful way… …a way that will generate and sustain long-term growth prospects for new ideas. What’s still missing? 2 things…

1. New Consumers Rule OK

The 5 Key Pillars of New Consumerism 1. They value Authenticity and Originality in all that they buy and experience 2. They are well Informed and hugely Involved in the products, services and brands that they buy 3. They are Individualistic – they do things “my way” – and increasingly demand companies do too 4. They are Time Poor and value anything that saves them time 5. They are Socially Responsible – and exercise their ethical awareness via their product and brand choices These traits can be measured at an individual level

2. Category Matters

Finding the Future Shapers in a category Involved in Category Early Adopter Connector New Consumer Future Shapers: 10% of the market

Unconnected Laggards New Consumers (Informed, Active) (Uninformed, Passive) Old Consumers Future Shapers Future Makers Today Consumers Yesterday Consumers Yesteryear Consumers Connected Early Adopters The hierarchical model of Future Influence: developed category by category 10% 20% 40% 20% 10%

FutureView in NPD… who to involve when Future Shapers Future Makers Today Consumers Yesterday Consumers Yesteryear Consumers QualitativeQuantitative CreationDevelopmentTesting Future Shaper Panels General Consumer Panels Purpose Method Resource

Idea Generation and Development: Forget ‘respondents’ and think ‘participants’  Their knowledge of and involvement with products and brands, their acceptance of change, means they are great Idea Generators - don’t limit their role to evaluation Future Shapers make great participants!  Great for breaking through the inertia and familiarity that surround established brands and stifle great innovation  Future Shapers are not so blinkered!  Build an ongoing dialogue with Future Shapers to keep abreast of what’s happening in their world - what’s hot and what’s not!  Inspiration Panels offer a dedicated insight resource

Idea Generation and Development: The Consumer Genesis Process  Engage:  Treat participants as intelligent equals – engage them in the task  Consumer Consultants Working with Future Shapers to build winning ideas  Spark!  Bring them together to spark off one another  Identify Issues and build powerful Ideas  Incubate:  On-the-spot brainstorming with strangers doesn’t work  Incubating ideas in own time, own place, with peers DOES

Case Study: Just Juice Bubbles Just Juice a successful juice brand in NZ, but struggling to find exciting, meaningful innovation Consumer groups commonly rejecting new ideas because… “that’s not my familiar Just Juice – please don’t change it” An Inspiration Panel, made up of cold beverage Future Shapers uncovers opportunity for new product idea – Future Shapers are already mixing Just Juice and lemonade themselves in an effort to make a “personalised, healthy alternative CSD” Concept of Just Juice Bubbles was born (50:50 Juice:Lemonade mix) -Given an ‘Okay’ by Today Consumers in groups BUT generates real excitement amongst Future Shapers -Subsequently shown to be a future-proofed idea in quantitative concept screening  Within three months of launch, JJ Bubbles has become the No.2 fruit-flavoured CSD in service stations

Case Study: Hello, my name is “Frank” Frucor Beverages (part of Danone) very successful in Australasia, based on strong juice, water and energy drink brands But very weak in fizzies - require ground-breaking innovation to make an impact on the market Consumer Genesis workshops with cold drinks Future Shapers found a viable path: -An ‘adult only’ range (most fizzy brands very youth-focused) -Simple, no-nonsense, tell it like it is brand values and personality (“frank” is the perfect description of this personality) -A range of flavours that is “familiar, but with a twist” -Not excessively sweet or sugary; light flavour and light sparkle -Glass bottles, small serving size to emphasise ‘adultness’ The result… A very successful brand launch

Why you shouldn’t trust an early adopter Using tomorrow's consumers to create tomorrow's concepts